Denver’s Draft Play Book

Denver’s Draft Playbook

 

Scenario 1 – Getting Sanchez (25%)

 

Denver’s day begins with Sanchez and whether he goes prior to Jacksonville at 1-8. Denver is limited moving up beyond 1-8 for several reasons.

 

The 1-7 sits with Oakland and Denver will not do a major trade with an AFC-West rival and Oakland will not risk being the guys that put Sanchez in the AFC-West. Denver could make a deal with Cincy at 1-6, Cleveland at 1-5 or Seattle at 1-4–but for the same reasons as Oakland not with KC at 1-3.

 

As Denver moves beyond the 1-8, the cost of acquiring higher picks approaches the value Denver received from Chicago for Cutler. If you make Orton worth 421 points (2-48) then Denver received 2200 points for Cutler (the value of the 1-3). Beyond the 1-8, landing Sanchez at these picks turns the Cutler drama more andmore into a Cutler for Sanchez trade.

 

Walter of walterfootball.com was to my knowledge the first guy to identify the Denver move to 1-8 with Jacksonville for the purpose of selecting Sanchez. The trade is straight forward.

 

Jacksonville has budget issues and would like to exit the 1-8, which is worth 1400 points. Denver can offer the 1-12 (1200 points) and the 3-79 (195).

 

An alternative to this would be for Denver to offer the 1-12 and Orton to Jacksonville. I believe Orton is worth at least 350 (2-55, keep in mind that whatever you make Orton to be worth below 421 necessarily means Denver got that much less than the 1-3 for Cutler) and his contract is something that might work well for them.

 

Denver might get “change” in a 1-8 for 1-12 + Orton move with Jacksonville in the form of a mid-round to late pick to equalize value.

 

If Sanchez is available at 1-8, Jacksonville will be hearing from the other Sanchez suitors: DC; the Vikings; the Jets and maybe Tampa as well. I think Denver can and will place a higher value bid than the Jets, Vikes, and Bucs, so the 1-8 play will come down to Denver versus DC.

 

DC starts their bidding with the 1-13 (1150) and the 3-80 (190) – DC has no 2^nd. This is 60 points under Denver.

 

Like Denver, who would consider adding Orton to the mix, DC can throw in Campbell. Jax then can decide if they want a proven NFL starter, or just picks.

 

Jacksonville is limited on what they can hold out for because DC will be talking to Oakland too. Bottom line is that Denver has slightly better cards to play for the 1-8, but DC can always go for the 1-7 with Oakland.

 

All these scenarios presume, of course, that Detroit has taken Stafford at the 1-1 and none of the teams drafting 1-2 through 1-7 have taken Sanchez for themselves.

 

Oakland doesn’t like to down trade. At 1-7, they are thinking of going any one of three ways: drafting a WR (Maclin), drafting the 3^rd OT selected after presumably St Louis and Cincy, or taking a DE (4.40 speed freak – Johnson).

 

In my opinion, all these options for Oakland at 1-7 are reaches. Therefore, I think the all too common mock theme that Crazy Al will be stupid is stupid and Oakland will very much consider moving down out of the 1-7 with a Sanchez suitor–especially if doing so screws Denver.

 

So let’s put some probabilities on the variations in the Sanchez story:

 

A – Detroit goes OT at 1-1 and both Stafford and Sanchez are in play thereafter – 10%

 

B – One of the teams drafting 1-2 through 1-6 takes Sanchez for themselves – 25%

 

C – Someone pays for more than the 1-7 and takes Sanchez before the 1-7 – 10%

 

D – Washington (or someone else other than Denver) makes a trade with Oakland and selects Sanchez 1-7 – 20%

 

E – Washington (or someone else other than Denver) makes a trade with Jacksonville and selects Sanchez 1-8 – 10%

 

F – Denver makes a trade with Jacksonville and selects Sanchez 1-8 – 20%

 

G – Sanchez lasts beyond 1-8 – 5% (but the probability that Denver would get him at 1-12 is <1%, so I’m not going to detail this out).

 

Denver can end up with Sanchez in scenarios A, C, F and G, but the odds in scenarios A, C and G of Denver ending up with Sanchez are minimal so let’s make Denver landing Sanchez in all scenarios 25%.

 

If Denver gets Sanchez we can presume that the 1-12 has been used. So Denver will be on the board next at 1-18.

 

Let’s lay out Denver’s 1^st Round Board at 1-18 with the odds that the player will be there:

1. Raji – 3-4NT – <1%
2. T. Jackson – 3-4DE – 15% (has to first last to 1-16 and then get past SD at 1-16, which will only happen if SD goes OT)
3. Mauagula – ILB – 65%
4. Wells or Moreno – 80%
5. Any of the Round 1 OLBs – 100%
6. V. Davis or Butler  – CB – 85%
7. M. Jenkins, S. Smith – FS – 95%

1-18 is where Denver has problems if Jackson is gone and you’re not sold on Mauagula or think he’s a reach at 1-18.

 

At 1-18 we have the following odds on what Denver does:

A – Jackson – 3-4DE – 100% of 15% being there= 15%

B – Mauagula – ILB – 75% of 65% being there = 50%

C – M. Jenkins – FS – 5%

C – Anyone else – 10%

D – Move the pick – 20%

 

Let’s start with why I place such a low value on Denver drafting a CB, S, OLB, RB, DE/T at 1-18. I’ll begin with OLB.

 

I think this whole Rush or Hydrid DE/OLB fad is getting out-of-hand. Again, my Denver experiences may be showing and a 272 pound college DE stud who ran a 4.69 for your hybrid?

 

I give you Tim Crowder, who was standing up and playing OLBthis weekend at mini-camp. Want a 260 DE who led the nation in sacks for your DE/OLB hybrid…that’s a 4^thround pick in 2006 named Dummervil.

 

Jarvis Moss? Consider his 2007 numbers coming into the draft – 6’6” 250, 4.69 40.  

 

This year’s DE/OLB fad isn’t new, it was all the rage the last time the 3-4 was the defense du jour. We in Denver did OK with the college DE to pro 3-4 LB game – Simon Fletcher and Karl Mecklenberg. 

 

The bottom line is that any pro position which requires a unique set of skills and is not a position typically found in the college game is necessarily a reach. This same phenomenon goes for many DL guys who are projected to use a different technique or even a pro level technique at all rather than simply having over matched their college OL opponents physically.

 

In my opinion, Dummervil, Moss and Crowder would be completely hyped if they were in the 2009 draft as prototypical hybrid “Rush” OLBs and all three would be talked about as 1^st Rounders. I’m dead serious.

 

Denver will not draft an OLB in Round One. They’ll go RB or FS before they waste a #1 on yet another 250-270 pound sub 4.80 collegiate DE projected to be a NFL 3-4 OLB.

 

They have Dummervil, Moss and Crowder all standing up at camp, plus B Bailey and Woodyard. OLB is not a high priority.

 

Eliminating the DT/DEs from the 1-18 is pretty straight forward, the guys that will be on the board at 1-18 are not 5 technique 3-4 DEs nor 0 technique 3-4 NTs – they are all one-gap players such as Jerry and Ayers. Denver already has a bunch of these guys that they’ll be trying to convert – Powell, Thomas, Peterson – to 3-4 DEs. Getting yet another one of these projects isn’t worth a number 1.

 

McD has told us his draft philosophy – draft the best player available that fits the system and prefer players who came from winning programs.

 

There are a few teams that would consider trading up for the 1-18, let’s think these through:

 

Minnesota –

The Vikes might pay a few points to jump from 1-22 over Detroitat 1-20 and landan OT before the Lions. This has plausibility if a guy like A. Smith or Oher drops and you like either more than the next tier of OTs – Beatty and Britton or if a run on OTs has happened and only Beatty or Britton are left at 1-18.

 

It would cost Minnesota 120 points. Minnesota has the 3-86 which is worth 160 points so Denver would have to make 40 points worth of change by tossing in the 5-149 (32 points). So it’s 1-18 + 5-149 for the 1-22 + 3-86. Denver can still land Mauagula ahead of NE at 1-23.

 

Miami –

 

The Tuna has a first, two seconds, a third and a fourth. He has a playoff contending team for 2009 with a few holes to fill – namely a CB and an OLB.

 

I think the two top CBs are flawed andthe class behind them starting with Butler going on into the second is six deep. I don’t see a lot of value spread in the CB class from number 1 through 8, so I think the Tuna will try to solve OLB in the deeper class in the 1^st and CB in the 2^nd.

 

Miami has the 1-25 worth 720 points, so the up trade to 1-18 costs 180. Who is worth 180 at 1-18 that you can’t get at 1-25.

 

Could be any one of several guys; Matthews, Brown, perhaps even Maybin if he slides. The better fit for a Miami – Denver swap in the first is if Denver has the 1-12 and Raji, Jackson and Sanchez are gone.

 

The Tuna can move up and probably get Maybin. For the trade to work at 1-18, the Tuna will have to really want a CB and think that the Vikes are going CB rather than OT and that Jenkins, Butler and V. Davis are 180 points apart in value.

 

Buffalo –

 

If the Bills really want Pettigrew they will have to get in front of Atlanta’s 1-24 for sure and maybe Philly at 1-21. Denver will be talking to Buffalo about TEs, since I think Denver is shopping Scheffler and his buddy, agent Bus Cook.

 

Maybe Scheffler solves Buffalo’s TE hole at the price of giving Denver something like 200-250 points. If not, then the conversation can turn to Pettigrew at 1-18.

 

The move for Buffalo from 1-28 to 1-18 costs 240 points. Buffalo can start buy offering their 3-75 worth 215 points for either Scheffler or the 1-18 for the 1-25. There are two options here so I think this conversation is happening.

 

So in Scenario 1 (25% probability of the Sanchez trade)

1-8 – Sanchez – QB – 1-12 + 3-79 or Orton

 

1-18 – T. Jackson (15%)

1-18 – Mauagula (50%)

1-18 – Moreno (5%)

1-18 – Trade Minnesota for 1-22 (5%)

1-18 – Trade Buffalo for the 1-28 (10%)

1-18 – Trade Miami for the 1-25 (5%)

1-18 – The Field (10%)

 

At 1-22 (5%) – Mauagula (60%), Moreno (10%), S. Smith (20%), the Field (10%)

At 1-25 (5%) – Mauagula (20%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (40%), the Field (10%)

At 1-28 (10%) – Mauagula (15%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (30%), R. Johnson (10%), the Field (15%)

 

Scenario 2 – No Sanchez (75%)

 

The play for Sanchez did not materialize, most likely because Sanchez was selected at 1-7 or earlier, so Denver has its 1-12:

 

1-8 – (5%) – Make the trade with Jacksonville to select either Raji or T. Jackson

1-12 – Raji (30%)

1-12 – T. Jackson (40%)

1-12 – Trade with Miami for the 1-25 (10%) – see discussion above, Miami sends the 1-25 (720) + the 2-44 (460) for the 1-12 (1200). Miami gets Maybin?

1-12 – Down Trade with someone other than Miami (10%)

1-12 – The Field (5%)

 

1-18 – T. Jackson (15%)

1-18 – Mauagula (50%)

1-18 – Moreno (5%)

1-18 – Trade Minnesota for 1-22 (5%)

1-18 – Trade Buffalo for the 1-28 (10%)

1-18 – Trade Miami for the 1-25 (5%)

1-18 – The Field (10%)

 

At 1-22 (5%) – Mauagula (60%), Moreno (10%), S. Smith (20%), Field (10%)

At 1-25 (5%) – Mauagula (20%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (40%), Field (20%)

At 1-28 (10%) – Mauagula (15%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (30%), R. Johnson (10%), Field (15%)

 

Trading Scheffler (40%)

 

I see Denver shopping Scheffler and his nemesis agent, Bus Cook, to Detroit, Buffalo and Atlanta among others. I make Scheffler worth 200-250 points – an early to mid-3^rd.

 

2nd Round

 

The 2-48 pick begins with landing 3-4 NT R. Brace if Raji was not had in the 1^st. If Raji is obtained and Denver didn’t hit the home run with Jackson sliding to 1-18, then the 2-48 will be used for a 3-4 DE – which could be Moala or Gilbert – or a safety.

 

Safeties are deep and talented in the 2^nd and 3^rd– Delmas, Chung, Moore, R. Johnson, S. Martin, Clemons, Byrd. The buzz on many mocks is that 3-4NTs are rare in this draft, I completely disagree. There are good NT prospects throughout this draft, so if we get neither Raji or Brace, there are solutions later.

 

Trade Scenario in the 3^rd (10%)

 

Lastly, I see a plausible trade in the 3^rdwith Dallas. Dallasis a 9-7 team, with a billion dollar stadium to pay for, a coach on the bubble, and an owner who’s the de facto GM.

 

Dallas needs a few key starters to stay competitive in the NFC-East. Dallas has 11 picks but no 1^st.

 

They have the 2-59, 3-69, 4-101, 4-117, 5-156, 5-166, 5-172, 6-197, 6-208, 7-210, and 7-227. Dallas really needs to consolidate an excess of mid to late picks and move up for another pick in the top-100. Dallas needs starters to fill key needs not a bunch of lower probability projects or backups.

 

Denver sends the 3-79 (195 points) to Dallas for the 4-101 (96 points), 4-117 (60 points) and 5-156 (29 points). Dallas gets a mid-3^rd and consolidates an excess of mid and late picks.

 

Conclusions

 

With no Sanchez but with a Scheffler trade and the 3^rd round trade with Dallas, a plausible outcome for Denver would be:

 

1-12 – 3-4DE – T. Jackson – LSU

1-18 – ILB – R. Mauagula – USC

2-48 – 3-4NT – R. Brace – Boston College
3-65 – FS – R. Johnson – Alabama (From Detroit for Scheffler, 265 points)
3-84 – RB – R. Jennings – Liberty
4-101 – ILB – J Brinkley – S Carolina (from Dallas for the 3-79, 195 points, Dallas consolidates an excess of mid/late rounders)
4-114 – C – A. Shipley – Penn St.
4-117 – TE – C. Coffman – Mizzou (from Dallas for the 3-79)
5-149 – K – G. Gano – Florida St. – Let’s get the #1 kicker in this draft!
5-156 – QB – M. Reilly? – Central Washington – (from Dallas) – I leave it to McD to choose from a number of QBsavailable around this pick
6-185 – 3-4NT – V. Martin – Western Ontario
7 -225 – WR/KR – Q. Cosby – Texas
7-235 – CB – W. Osaisai – Stanford

 

That’s nearly two complete years’ worth of picks in Denver uniforms a week from now.

 

With the Sanchez play at 1-8, Scheffler traded but no Dallas trade in the 3^rd:

 

1-8 – QB – M. Sanchez – USC (from Jax for the 1-12 + 3-79)

1-18 – ILB – R. Mauagula – USC

2-48 – 3-4NT – R. Brace – Boston College
3-65 – FS – R. Johnson – Alabama (From Detroit for Scheffler, 265 points)

3-84 – 3-4NT – D. Scott – Clemson
4-114 – TE – C. Coffman – Mizzou
5-149 – K – G. Gano – Florida St.
6-185 – 3-4DE – P. Egboh – Stanford
7 -225 – WR/KR – Q. Cosby – Texas
7-235 – C – B. Helms – LSU

 

If this is what 2009 looks like, then 2010 draft will prioritize CBs, another ILB, a WR, and a RB.

 

Bottom line: Denver is about to get a whole lot more talented.

Broncos Seven Round Mock Draft (April 22): Moreno, Jackson to Denver

Denver Broncos on Draft Day: New England BrainTrust Edition

I’m a Denver Broncos fan and I’m terrified.

I’m looking forward to four games a year where the Chargers and the Raiders take turns abusing our 3-4 with their running backs. Tom Cable has no problem calling plays like ’60s era Vince Lombardi, and he is going to win a lot of games as a coach that way.

We have the personnel better suited for a 4-3 but the New England braintrust will insist on running a 3-4 anyway, because instead of McDaniels actually evaluating or coaching his roster, he’d rather sack them all, and try to create his own New England Patriots team.

We have the draft picks since we traded away our young franchise quarterback which my therapist advised me not to talk about anymore, mostly because I couldn’t pay him enough to care about it. So how do we make it work on defense?

There’s two ways to look at the draft. Do you swing for the fences and trade your high draft picks to impact players, or do you go for value and rebuild through the draft? They could go for disgruntled linemen like Julius Peppers, Shaun Rogers, or Darnell Dockett who will need a king’s ransom but might be worth it.

I’d like to see them go for value. Use second round/day picks or trades to get linemen like Domata Peko from the Bengals, Broderick Bunkley from the Eagles, Igor Olshansky (who they should have picked up as a free agent, honestly) who are not big names but produce well.

The linebacker corps is workable enough, and isn’t really the glaring weakness of the defense, and its easier to draft a good linebacker than some other positions. Brian Dawkins restores the fear aspect of their secondary and Champ might be healthy this year.

Offense is harder, because I don’t know what McDaniels plans to do? Does he want to air it out, or run the ball? I doubt they will still be zone blocking, so does that mean Denver will no longer use slender, quick offensive linemen?

If so, young players like Max Jean Gilles of the Eagles, and Jamey Richard of the Colts who have the tools but haven’t put them together would be bargains.

If they draft a running back or quarterback in the first round, McDaniels should fired on the spot.

The running position is four deep, even though the O-line is sort of a question mark, and trading a young franchise quarterback with a strong arm to drafter a younger, more expensive, unproven quarterback with a strong arm is the kind of move that gets you coaching the North Feasterville Platypuses in Division V football.

Let’s see what happens in the draft.The draft should be mostly defense, unless you can steal a starting WR in the second or third round. Rebuild the defensive line, and get the personnel to cover your A gaps on offense which was a problem last year. It wouldn’t be crazy to draft a corner, but it shouldn’t be priority.

If we trade both first round picks to draft Matt Stafford, I would suggest that I preemptively be restrained by local law enforcement. No need to call, they know the address.

Denver Broncos Seven Round Mock Draft V 2.0

It’s less than 1 week to the 2009 NFL Draft, and I’m here to offer my last opinion on the Broncos draft strategy for this year.

Now that Cutler is in Chicago, Mcdaniels can get on to being the coach of our beloved Broncos with extra 1st and 3rd round selections to boot.

Expect defense early and often with a few “Patriot Picks’ of best available thrown in. The Broncos WILL draft a quarterback just not in round 1, keep an eye on Graham Harrell in the later rounds.

WR may also be a need with Marshall possibly facing a suspension but don’t expect a WR on day 1.

Denver’s defense is truly in need of some talent and they lack depth. Bringing in a few bodies for LB and DL would help the team a lot.

Now let’s look at this year’s draft.

Denver Broncos: Draft Day Picks 12 and 18

NOTE: This is a revision of an article that was posted up by Rob Burson a few weeks ago. For a related article by Burson, check here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/160542-denver-broncos-can-wait-until-later-rounds-to-get-defensive-linemen

 

Big, Bad B.J. Raji, the potential nose tackle the Denver Broncos covet with there first draft pick, will more than likely be off the boards by the 12th pick.

If he’s not, he’ll obviously be picked up.

But with odds against Denver getting the dominant 337lb lineman here, how about a DE that can also play outside linebacker in a 3-4 system?

Will Everette Brown still be around at No. 12 for the Broncos?

There’s a good chance he will. The Mile High team will snag him up without flinching. He’s a pass rushing force who could step in immediately and give opposing teams something to seriously think about.

He’ll rack up sacks, and also contribute to a healthy infusion of behind the line tackles.

This guy fits squarely into the Broncos new hybrid OLB/DE scheme. He can perform with a fist in the dirt, or standing up. He’s projected to go between 10-30, so there’s a good chance the boys in Orange can get this player.

He’s a little undersized for a lineman, so Tyson Jackson sometimes stands out as potentially better for the moves the Broncos need to make. But Brown is more dynamic and offers a better all around package.

Jackson is the one dimensional DE.

Brown can do pass rushing, coverage, and run stuffing.

Either would be a good choice, but I’m going with the dark horse Everette Brown here. More than a little bit of my thinking here is because Tyson Jackson will more than likely be gone by pick 12, as I see things.

After securing a defensive lineman (of sorts), the Broncos will continue to add to defense overall with their 18th pick.

He’s been coached by Pete Carroll and Ken Norton Jr in a system that has steadily produced top notch linebackers.

In 2008, he was awarded the Chuck Bednarik Award, annually given to the No. 1 overall defensive player in the country, as judged by NCAA coaches and college football experts across the nation.

In the 2008 Rose Bowl, he emerged as the defensive player of the game.

He’s been hailed as the next Junior Seau.

At No. 18 in the 2009 draft, the Denver Broncos will scoop up the phenom that is Rey Maualuga.

His intense and emotional play at inside linebacker is precisely what the Broncos need to turn around the lackluster and uninspired defense of seasons past.

His numbers are stellar, and there’s no doubt that Maualuga will make a major impact on whatever team picks him up in the first round.

Denver fans are hoping he lands with the Broncos, and thus begins to lift the team out of the quagmire of the past few years.

With Brown and Maualuga plugged into Nolan’s 3-4, and the seasoned secondary prowling the backfield, the Denver Bronco’s will noticeably improve on defense this year.

Outside of somehow picking up B.J. Raji at No. 12 (he’ll be gone by then), getting these two players would make the 2009 Denver Broncos draft a success.

Though the secondary seems to be fairly cinched up for the year—what with Dawkins, Goodman, Hill newly signed, and Champ still around—an infusion of youth is needed back there. The Broncos are improved here, though not set for the future, and should use the 49th pick on a corner back.

Beyond this, it’ll be time for the Broncos to get busy with defensive line role players.

They may not rise to the top of the AFC this year, but the new Denver defense will be respectable and at times formidable on the field.

I’m a strong proponent of the Broncos drafting linemen.

It’s a huge need.

But with 12 and 18 there are two players who bring a great deal of diversity and intensity to the game of play. Despite the naysaying of the experts, Everette Brown still has a real shot of turning out to be a true DE in the NFL. Maualuga has potential to be the next Junior Seau. Hopefully the Broncos staff snags both players up come draft day.

 

2009 Mock Draft (11-20)

Part two of three in my series of releasing my NFL Mock Draft. Two Trojans are included, and only THREE offensive players. Very defense-heavy opening round.

      11.  Buffalo Bills – Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State

      Maybin is a very versatile player and could play the outside LB position, while fitting in well with the Bills.

      12.   Denver Broncos – Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU

      One of the best defensive end prospects, and the ideal 3-4 end is a must need for Denver to revitalize a weakened defense.

      13.   Washington Redskins – Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss 

      Although Snyder could trade up for a QB in Sanchez, Oher is a good fit here. Looking at the offense is key as they also traded for Haynesworth earlier in the offseason.

      14.   New Orleans Saints – Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

      The 14th pick could be a little early for Wells, but he fits in with New Orleans and could provide some structure and a one-two punch with Reggie Bush.

      15.  Houston Texans – Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

      I don’t see a better fit for Houston, as Cushing can play both strong side and weak side at linebacker, and alongside DeMeco Ryans.

      16.    San Diego Chargers – Everette Brown, DE, Florida State

      Hard for San Diego to pass on this great rusher, who has the ability to take some pressure off of strong side LB Shawne Merriman.

      17.   New York Jets – Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

      Freeman, compared to Daunte Culpeper, has too much upside for a team with major QB needs. I don’t see him getting past here.

      18.   Denver Broncos – Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

      Although I feel the Broncos won’t get two DEs in the opening round, Ayers is a fast pass rusher, and the two could emerge as studs for the defense.

      19.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Perria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

a.   With Jerry as a very good pass rusher and developing an ability to stop the run, Tampa could have a force in the middle.

      20.  Detroit Lions – Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC 

      The Lions could go with boosting up their line to protect Stafford, but I see them going with the linebacker position here. Maualuga will develop into a great Mike-backer. 

 

      Check out the rest of the Draft…

       Picks 1-10

       Picks 21-32

The Case For John Parker Wilson

The post-Cutler era in Denver has begun. With 5 days until the draft a quarterback must be on the mind of rookie head coach Josh McDaniels.

So much so that it must drive him crazy. Whispers around the NFL have the Broncos moving up to get the much hyped Mark Sanchez from USC who has become the poster child of this year’s draft class.

I take a different perspective; a more conservative approach.

The sacrifice of ousting Jay Cutler for draft pick must go to re-shaping the worst defense in Denver Broncos history. With five picks in the first three rounds of the draft the Broncos have the potential to change the entire landscape of the defense for the next five years. 

So why should anyone be talking about drafting a first-round QB?

Good question and it’s one I can’t answer. I hope McDaniels has his thinking cap on come draft time cause if he doesn’t he wont have a job next year.

Denver needs a QB but they don’t need to take one in the first three rounds. They don’t even need to take one in the fourth or fifth. In the “projected” sixth round there lies a hidden gem by the name of John Parker Wilson hailing from the University of Alabama.

Some of you have a pre-concieved notion that Wilson is soft, un-athletic, and can’t take a hit. When you search John Parker Wilson on YouTube.com the first video that comes up is LaRon Landry’s monster hit on Wilson in 2006.

What they don’t show you is the 121.53 passer rating his senior year as well as leading his Alabama squad to a 12-2 record. Now his stats aren’t Heisman worthy but he was a great starter at Alabama for three years and set almost every significant pass record throughout his tenure there. Straight up, the kid is a winner. 

Most “experts” have him being a 3rd rate QB that doesn’t posses the adequate athleticism to play the part of a starting QB but the growing trend around the NFL is to conform the QB to fit the coaches system. This is a kid you could shape and mold to whatever you wanted him to be.

And you don’t have to move up to get him.

He will sit patiently amongst the sixth and seventh rounders waiting for his opportunity to be the next franchise QB taken late in the draft. If Matt Cassel could do it then you better believe John Parker-Wilson could as well.               

Ryan’s 2009 Denver Broncos Mock Draft 1.1

For my new draft, I’m going to explore other trade avenues the Broncos could follow. To assess the value of draft picks, I will use Profootballtalk.com’s value chart (found here).

I will be using Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft from ESPN.com to predict possible draft spots for the first 20 prospects. 

My mock draft will be focusing on the possibility of Denver moving up, from the No. 12 or No. 18 picks, to grab a lineman in the top 10 picks. 

If Denver tries to trade the No. 12 pick, then they would target picks three through five for Aaron Curry or Michael Crabtree—no QBs! 

This is highly unexpected, but still would be fine for Denver due to having two first-round picks. 

To fully ensure that the Broncos have the chance to choose between the two, they will need to trade for the No. 3 pick currently being held by Kansas City, which won’t happen. But stay with me on this one—the Broncos would then need to trade for the No. 2 choice and either jump on Curry, or try to offer the pick to the top three to five teams. 

The No. 2 pick is worth a whopping 2,600 points. After trading their No. 12 pick, this leaves 1,400 points of value for the Broncos to come up with. It would take all of the Bronco’s first-day draft picks to compensate for 1,400 points. There is no value in this trade.

According to Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft, Denver can only find value in picks 8-11 for top D-line prospects—again, no QBs! The teams holding picks eight through 11 would be looking to move out of the top 10 because they don’t foresee a good value for these picks. 

The Broncos’ 18th pick is worth 900 points and would end up being the choice that the teams with picks eight through 11 would want to move to.

The players Denver would target in these picks would be (in this order) Brian Orakpo, B.J. Raji, Aaron Maybin, and Robert Ayers. Orakpo and Raji are the only players I would feel happy with Denver moving up to get. 

To fully ensure that the Broncos have the chance to choose between the two, they will need to trade for the No. 8 pick currently being held by Jacksonville. 

After trading the No. 18 pick to the Jags for the No. 8 pick, the Broncos will have to find 500 points to compensate the Jags for the trade. The Broncos would trade their No. 48 and No. 114 round choices and swap their No. 84 pick with the Jags’ No. 72 pick. Denver loses their second and fifth round choices, but moves up 12 spots in the third round and 10 spots in the first round.

Now Denver would have the following draft picks:

No. 8, No. 12, No. 72, No. 79, No. 149, No. 185, and No. 225.

 

Round One

No. 8 Orakpo or Raji. 

I believe that Raji is the most-needed pick here, but both would contribute as starters their rookie season.

No. 12  Tyson Jackson—DE, LSU

I’m sticking with this pick from my previous draft. He will be an awesome DE in the 3-4.

 

Round Three

72.  Jasper Brinkley—ILB, South Carolina

My pick didn’t change. Freaky run stuffer. Jasper is by far the coolest name for a defensive player.

79.  Terrance Taylor—DT, Michigan

My pick didn’t change. Can hold his ground and stuff the gaps. Will work well as a defensive end in the second rotation with Marcus Thomas.

 

Round Five

149.  Rhett Bomar—QB, Sam Houston State

Joe Flacco-type QB. Played in the spread offense his entire career. 6’2″, 225 lbs. is average size. Played at OU, but got kicked off the team for off-field issues. Will have something to prove in the NFL.

 

Round Six

185.  Vaughn Martin—DT, Western Ontario

Freaky size. He would be a big NT prospect behind Raji and Fields.

 

Round Seven

225.  Arian Foster—RB, Tennessee

Once was a top draft prospect; now he may have something to prove. Good blocker and receiver.

235.  Pierre Walters—LB, Eastern Illinois

Lance Briggs-esque size. Could be a freak. Could be a bust.

 

All in all, this could happen—and Denver would have blue-chip talent on their D-line.

What if They’re All Wrong? What if Matt Stafford Is Not No. 1?

With the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft the Detroit Lions select Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, University of Georgia.

Or will they?

Nearly every mock draft you see today has Matthew Stafford the consensus No. 1 pick. Everyone seems to agree. Everyone except the team with the No. 1 pick.

As recently as Thursday rookie head coach Jim Schwartz insisted that the Lions had not settled on a number one pick. “No, not 100 percent. There’s still discussions to be had,” Schwartz said.

Everyone knows the Lions need lots of help including quarterback. Adding fuel to the fire is the apparent attempt to get Matt Cassel and the fact that the current depth chart is Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton and Drew Henson (not necessarily in that order).

However, teams always say you build from your lines. Schwartz knows this first hand having come from Tenneseewho built both solid offensive and defensive fronts. And don’t forget about that whole Vince Young thing.

It still seems likely that the Lions will attempt to brand their franchise with the sexy quarterback and attempt to forget last year.

But if they don’t, if they decide they want to avoid the massive bust rate for first round quarterbacks and take tackle Jason Smith, all hell could break loose.

What happens then?

Do the Rams take Stafford? Does someone jump on the opportunity and trade up? What happens to Mark Sanchez?

This would leave several teams with very difficult decisions that could come to define the next 10 years of the NFL in the same way that Leaf vs Manning did in ’98.

Here are some of the teams that would be affected.

St. Louis Rams

The general thought right now is that the Rams will take Jason Smith number two. This would help fill the large hole left by the release of Orlando Pace and hopefully keep some stability to an offensive line that has seen anything but consistency over the last several years.

The Rams have publicly stated that they will listen to offers for the No. 2 pick and have expressed some interest in Mark Sanchez and Aaron Curry.

With the age and inconsistency of Marc Bulger over the past two seasons (not to mention his injuries) it would be hard for rookie coach Steve Spagnolo to pass up Stafford if no one comes calling for a trade.

If Spags screws up this pick, don’t expect him to last long with the Rams or get another head coaching job.

Seattle Seahawks

Rumors are the Seahawks are torn between Sanchez and Virginia OT Eugene Monroe. They could try and move up to No. 2 to get Stafford, could trade down to get Alabama OT Andre Smith, or could stay and still take either Sanchez or Monroe.

One would think that they would be in talks with the Rams and depending on which direction the Rams planned to go the Seahawks would react.

Oakland Raiders

I never underestimate how crazy Al Davis is. He may be just senile enough to forget that he just drafted JaMarcus Russell and make a run at Stafford.

San Francisco 49ers

The ‘Niners made some failed attempts at signing a QB this off-season (Kurt Warner). They would love for Sanchez to fall to them at ten, but it doesn’t look like that will happen. If the draft board gets shaken up they are going to be affected. If it is not by getting a QB, it could be a projected top five player falling into their lap.

Denver Broncos

As much as I like Chris Simms and think that if gets a shot he can be a very good QB, the Broncos would jump at the chance to replace Cutler, especially with Stafford whose style has been compared to Cutler’s a lot recently.

Don’t forget their number of picks, especially the extra first rounder from the Bears, helps them tremendously in moving up without sacrificing the rest of their draft.

Washington Redskins

The ‘Skins have appeared to all but give up on Jason Campbell. There are rumors of their interest in Sanchez. They could try and move up to get him or Stafford. Depending on how the rest of the board shapes up they could be the landing spot for Sanchez at 13, a la Brady Quinn.

New York Jets

The Jets still need to replace Favreand could jump at a chance for either QB (Stafford’s arm strength would be nice in Giants Stadium) especially if they could get a bargain. If Sanchez falls past the Seahawks at four, don’t be surprise to see the Jets try and move up to eight or nine.

I guess this could happen anyway, but Sanchez falling seems more likely if Stafford isn’t No. 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Unlikely they’d make a move, especially after signing Byron Leftwich but they could at least be a factor in driving up the price of a trade up.

 

Another consideration for the Lions in determining their No. 1 pick is the 20thoverall pick they got from the Cowboys in the Roy Williams deal. Most people think they’ll take an offensive lineman here but they if they take Smith number one they could draft Josh Freeman here.

That way they’d still have their quarterback but with less financial obligation and less pressure to perform.

More Fearless, But Not So Bonehead Predictions, of the 2009 NFL Draft

So, here we are, bored again. Needless to say that I am attempting to keep my overactive imagination in check this time (No $80 Gazillion contracts).

Also, I decided to pass some of my delusional ideas on to the group, who I have come to respect, because no matter what anyone else says about ya’ll, you guys are the best reporters in sports. And I won’t tell anyone about that thing with thing….

 

10. Josh McDaniels finally convinces everyone he is an idiot.

I have been hard on him since he let Cutler go. I don’t care who’s fault, who’s cajones are bigger, our who cried more. Bottom line is Jay Cutler produced with a mediocre offense and watched his artwork go to shame by the Broncos horrible defense. That said, McD will draft Sanchez or a another not needed position and solidify his standing as “Village Idiot”.

 

9. Crazy, Ridiculous, Insane. 

Adjectives used to describe the first 10 picks. Why? Trades, my man. With Edwards and Boldin on the block and top notch talent available everywhere in the draft, someone will do something ludicrous.

 

8. Jerry Jones is the guy from No. 9.

Dallas needs a big time receiver. Period. They have the best TE in football with Witten, but a mid-level QB on a high in Romo. JJ goes hard for either Crabtree, Maclin, or Heyward-Bey.

 

7. The NFL Draft is delayed so we can check President Obama’s mock draft.

Cheap shot. Yes, but you can’t give love to the NCAA without giving love to the NFL Draft.

 

6. The Goose goes 28-32 in the first.

Do you know the Goose? If not, he has a cool little dilly here, http://dallasnews.upickem.net/upickem/registration/login.asp?contestid=5593

hey if you beat him you get a T-Shirt. And its free to play, and it is MAD bragging rights to the draftniks. But I don’t think you will.

 

5. Some broadcaster will try to imitate John Madden.

It will happen. Unfortunately. There was and is only one John Madden. Hopefully, no one else (Collinsworth, that means you) will try and pick up the marker.

 

4. Sanchez gets picked No. 4 Overall.

I hate saying that. I really do. But with all the pre-draft trades and draft day trades and pirates and stuff. Sanchez gets picked to replace Matt Hasselbeck in a couple years.

 

3. Tennessee actually picks a WR in the first.

Hasn’t happened since like ’98. Hmmmmm…11 years? Coincidence?

 

2. Jim Schwartz and the Detroit Lions STUN the world.

It has been so quiet out of Detroit lately I am not even sure they know what day the draft is. Actually, I think that Schwartz is playing it close and will actually PREVENT the Lions from mucking up this year.

 

1. Jim Schwartz and the Detroit Lions STUN the world.

So amazing I had to put it on here twice. Actually, I think that Schwartz is playing it close and will actually PREVENT the Lions from mucking up this year.

 

BONUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Stafford falls out of the Top 5. Crazy? Impossible?

Why? Besides the “Need Everything” Lions, who else actually NEEDS a QB in the top 5? Exactly, for the kind of money people are spending on high picks, it makes a good argument. Possible? Yes. Probable? No. But stranger things have happened….

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