NFL Playoff Scenarios: Denver Broncos Control Their Own Destiny

It has been a season of ups and downs for the Denver Broncos. 

After an unbelievable 6-0 start, this team was on pace with the best in the NFL and appeared to be primed to put San Diego away in the division for the first time in years.

The Broncos have proceeded to lose six of their last eight games, the most embarrassing of which happened on Sunday afternoon against the Oakland Raiders.

Still, the Broncos control their own destiny in terms of the playoffs, but the only likely way they will make it out of the crowded AFC wild card chase is to win their last two games—a road contest against Philadelphia and a home game against Kansas City.

The Broncos currently hold the sixth seed in the AFC, and a lot of their playoff hopes depend on what happens in Sunday’s Baltimore–Pittsburgh matchup.  Here are some of the potential scenarios the Broncos could face come playoff time.

 

1.  Worst Case Scenario:  They Miss Out

This could very well happen with one more loss.  The Broncos are going to have to approach their last two games as though they were playoff contests because any slip at this point in the season, especially with the AFC playoff race as clouded as it is, could cost the Broncos in a big way.

If the Broncos miss the playoffs, they will have absolutely wasted one of the best starts in franchise history, though they will have exceeded the expectations of many critics either way.

 

2.  Best Case Scenario:  Fifth seed

The best case scenario for the Broncos would be to win out and have the Ravens lose one of their final two games.  If that happens, Denver will have control of the fifth seed in the AFC, a situation in which they would travel on the road to play against the fourth-seeded Cincinnati Bengals or New England Patriots. 

At this point in time, it is likely that the fourth seed will be held by the Bengals, but that could all change in one game.

 

3.  Sixth Seed

Right now, the Broncos control their own destiny as I said before.  If they win out, they will clinch a playoff spot, and at the very worst, the sixth seed.  The Broncos will obtain the sixth seed if they and the Ravens finish with the same record, since the Ravens own the tie-breaker from their regular season win.

If the Broncos get the sixth seed, they will have a tough road to the Super Bowl which will start, if the season ended today, with a trip out to New England to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots.

 

The Broncos’ current record in the AFC is 6-5, which is second best to the Ravens (6-4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) though both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are close behind with an AFC mark of 5-5.

Denver has a better overall record than the Jaguars, Dolphins, or Jets, and the only team that holds a tiebreaker with Denver in the “in the hunt” group is Pittsburgh, who beat Denver earlier this season.

So what is the formula for the Denver Broncos?

Just keep on winning.  If the Broncos win both of their games, they will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2005 and will have finally broken whatever funk they were in. 

If Denver misses the playoffs this season, they will have dropped a second consecutive division lead of three or more games. 

The playoffs start Sunday for Denver.  Their first challenge?  Try and stop the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles from taking over the second seed in the NFC.

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Josh McDaniels Misses the Memo: The Raiders Are the Rivals

The Denver Broncos came out as the favorite at home against a “weak” opponent in the Oakland Raiders. Even though they had all the victories on paper, Josh McDaniels’ boys found themselves in a good ol’ fashioned AFC West battle.

Denver was 8-5 entering the game atop the muddled AFC Wild Card slugfest that has emerged and basically needed two wins to secure a playoff spot in McDaniels’ first year.

They had already won more games than most thought they would, and any prognosticators who predicted they would be in this position might have been further than fanatic.

And while McDaniels and Co. might have seen this game as a walk-through against an inferior opponent, as the Raiders stood at only 4-9, they forgot to look at the deeper implications of the contest at hand.

The Broncos/Raiders rivalry is alive and well, one of the best in professional football (even though many Oakland maniacs argue the contrary) and part of what makes it so great was there to be witnessed on the field of New Mile High Stadium on Sunday.

For one team, it was a must-win that would further cement their playoff hopes, and for the other, a chance to play the spoiler. The Raiders haven’t put up much fight all season, but in Denver, they went all-out every play and completely embarrassed the Broncos.

Sure, Denver had all the momentum early in the game, but they couldn’t convert drives into touchdowns—and the Bronco’s overall offensive woes Sunday were due to McDaniels’s McBlunders.

Denver’s first drive started rather successfully, as the play-calling was balanced until McDaniels got much too conservative and started over-thinking the game.

On 1st-and-10 from the Oakland 13, LaMont Jordan ran the ball up the gut for a fast six yards, but the next play was McDaniels’s first big mistake of the game.

He told the offense to hurry up and quickly get to the line—all to run a QB sneak for a measly one yard.

On 3rd-and-3 from the six-yard line, McDaniels chose not to even attempt to attack the end zone and instead ran Knowshon Moreno ineffectively for one yard again.

End result: Another failed attempt at getting into the end zone. The Broncos went up by three, but it should have been seven.

On their second drive, Denver had the ball in favorable position again, but McDaniels out-coached himself and his team again.

A 24-yard pass from Kyle Orton to Brandon Marshall started the drive, and Moreno gained five yards on the next.

Then the McGenius made himself look like a McMoron.

On 2nd-and-5 from Oakland’s 12-yard line, McDaniels called in his trickiest of trick plays—a screen to the most valuable player on the offense, tackle Ryan Clady.

Sure, Clady caught the ball, but he was immediately blown up, hit hard in the knees by safety Nnamdi Asomugha, and lost three yards. Plus, Marshall forgot to line up off the line, and Clady illegally touched the ball.

Besides that, Clady could have been seriously injured, and losing him would mean losing the Broncos anchor on the O-line.

Later in the drive, McDaniels called a screen to Eddie Royal on 3rd-and-15 instead of giving the team a chance to pick up a first down and continue an important drive.

Again, the Broncos had to kick a field goal. Again, their offense was sabotaged by the preposterous play-calling of McDaniels.

The Raiders then scored 13 straight points and took all the momentum into halftime.

Denver rallied to score 13 straight of their own, but their last field goal needed to be a touchdown instead. Brandon Stokley caught a short pass and turned it up field for 63 yards. And even when Denver had the ball with a 1st-and-goal at the two yard line, they couldn’t hit paydirt.

Multiple Broncos’ players have been vocal about the scoring slump, including Daniel Graham and Brandon Marshall. Marshall told the Denver Post, “It’s been hurting us all year. Our offense, we’ve just been mediocre, if that.”

Graham said, “You never want to settle for field goals. They did a good job of stopping us and getting us out of the end zone. We have to do better. We have to get seven.”

In all, Denver is only 20th in the league in scoring and could only manage to put up 19 points against a team that allows 23.9 per. If they can’t score against that poor of a defense, what makes the Broncos think that they can put up enough points against the greats of the AFC in the playoffs?

Just to get to the playoffs, the Broncos likely have to win their last two games, at Philadelphia (10-4) and home against the Chiefs (3-11), a dubious but not impossible task. From here on out, every game is a must-win for Denver, and it could act as a great learning experience for the young head coach.

While McDaniels’ offense has been hyped as one of the most proficient and complex ever, he must learn to simplify now or Denver will be sitting home early, missing the playoffs.

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Another Denver Broncos Collapse Would Be Catastrophic

A franchise mired in mediocrity took a giant leap forward when they fired two-time Super Bowl champion and head coach Mike Shanahan after losing a three-game lead with as many games remaining.  Owner Pat Bowlen selected Bill Belichick prodigy Josh McDaniels as his replacement.

He received so much criticism in the offseason prior to even coaching a single NFL game. He attempted to trade an up-and-coming big-time quarterback in Jay Cutler for the New England backup and former quarterback in his Patriot offense, Matt Cassel. 

It didn’t happen, but Jay Cutler was so pissed off that his new coach would think of getting rid of him that he demanded a trade.  He got his wish and ended up with the Chicago Bears for two first-round draft picks and the unwanted Kyle Orton.  Following that move McDaniels received a huge backlash from the Denver media and the fans.

The team that has sold out every game in its existence was on the verge of making a reprehensible decision if it turned out badly.  Following “Cutler-gate,” the Broncos star wide receiver, Brandon Marshall, had some offseason troubles and also demanded a trade before the season began.  He wasn’t as lucky as Cutler.

McDaniels decided to keep the disgruntled wideout and the Broncos began the season as a huge underdog.  McDaniels’ imprint was set in stone and it was relatively quiet in the locker room as the 2009-2010 season began.

The Broncos opened up with probably the most memorable game of opening weekend.  Brandon Stokely caught a miracle deflection and scampered 87 yards to lead the Broncos to their first victory.

They followed it up with a couple of wins against the lowly Browns and Raiders.  Respect was not officially earned from the national media until they defeated the Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers.  The fanbase was buzzing and they had forgot all about Shanahan and Cutler in Denver. 

Kyle Orton was playing out of his mind and a once terrible defense had made a complete turnaround.  Former 49ers head coach Mike Nolan had transformed the Broncos into a formidable foe for opposing offenses.  Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey led one of the most feared secondaries in the NFL.  No hopes in August had officially turned into promising Super Bowl aspirations as the Broncos headed into November.

The Broncos strolled into Baltimore on top of the world for a tough game against a very good Ravens team.  After losing three straight, the Ravens were in a must-win situation.  The Broncos were only down 16-7 entering the fourth quarter after playing easily as poorly as they had all season.

They were unable to extend their great start, but were forgiven for the loss in Denver because of the desperation shown by the Ravens.  Next on the docket were the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.  The Broncos defense was stout and gave the Broncos a 10-7 lead in the third quarter with a Robert Ayers fumble recovery and return for a touchdown.

The Denver offense did absolutely nothing after their first drive in which Matt Prater capped off with a 40-yard field goal.  Every other drive ended in an interception or punt.  It turned out to be far too much to overcome as Ben Roethlisberger manufactured 21 unanswered points to finish the game.

The Denver defense only allowed 14 legitimate points.  One Orton interception was returned for a touchdown and the other Steeler score came off a turnover at the Denver 25-yard line.  A sad story for another very good performance by the Denver defense.

Skepticism was beginning to set in throughout the Mile High city.  Fans were crossing their fingers that the Broncos would straighten it out against an underachieving Redskins club.  Things started out promising for Denver when the offense clicked from the opening kickoff.  Kyle Orton hit Brandon Marshall for two very long first-half touchdowns and ended up with a total of 193 yard passing through two quarters.

What didn’t appear of any significance at the time was a tweak to the ankle of Kyle Orton just before the end of the first half.  McDaniels was forced to put Chris Simms in the game for the entire second half and he finished 3-of-13 for 13 yards and an interception.  Enough to generate zero second-half points and cost the Broncos a much needed road victory.

Now the Broncos were 6-3 and tied for the division lead with the hated San Diego Chargers.  In addition to the tie, the Broncos had their hated rivals at home next on the schedule.

Chris Simms was given his first start since 2006 and he played like it.  He only played three series before being replaced by the injured Orton.  He finished 2-of-4 for 10 yards and looked lost in the pocket taking a handful of sacks.  Josh McDaniels should have been criticized much more for his decision during the game.

If Orton was good enough to go at the point, he should have started the game.  Instead he spotted the Chargers a 13-0 lead that was insurmountable.  The Chargers walked all over the Broncos at Invesco Field for a 32-3 victory.

Panic had officially set in.  Now 6-4, the Broncos were on the verge of one of the biggest collapses in NFL history.  No team to start 6-0 had ever lost their next five games.  The struggling New York Giants came to town on Thanksgiving evening and the Broncos destroyed them.

In a dominating effort, the Broncos controlled the entire game and allowed only six points. A 26-6 victory was satisfying for the city and kept the Broncos on pace within the division and conference.

An easy victory in Kansas City by 31 points had given the Broncos a two-game cushion in the wild-card race and kept them within one of the Chargers.  The Broncos then traveled to face the undefeated Indianapolis Colts and they had multiple chances to change that mark.

A number of unsuccessful offensive drives in Indianapolis territory lead to a two-game deficit in the AFC West.  An AFC West championship now looked like a lost cause with San Diego playing so well.  The Broncos had an 8-5 record with two very winnable games remaining.

Ahead for the Broncos: a divisional home matchup against a very bad Raiders team as well as a season finale against a team they just throttled by 31 points in the Kansas City Chiefs, with a road game against the streaking Philadelphia Eagles in the middle.

So, with three games remaining the Broncos had everything on the line this past Sunday at home against the Raiders.  Dismal offense and an opportunistic JaMarcus Russell in the final minute of the game caused the Broncos to lose what could have been pretty much a Wild-Card clinching game.

A victory would have given them a 9-5 record and they would have been one win from clinching an AFC playoff spot.  Now they are 8-6 and travel to Philadelphia this week.  The Eagles are still in must-win mode with the Giants on their heels and a chance to catch the Vikings for the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Denver is in chaos over these Broncos.  Who can they expect on the field?  A team that beat the Patriots, Cowboys, and Chargers, or the team that lost to the Raiders and Redskins? 

Josh McDaniels has made many mistakes in his young coaching career and most likely will learn from them.  Many risky on-the-field decisions, just like his mentor Bill Belichick, may have cost the Broncos points on a few chances. He needs to realize this team can’t score at will and they need to put up anything they can.

The Broncos still have a legit chance of making the playoffs and the loss could actually benefit them when it comes to first-round opponents.  If they finish up as the No. 6 seed they will probably travel to Cincinnati.

Can Denver fans take another collapse?  Prosperity early in the season has turned into a lot of holiday season agony for Broncos country.  It will be three straight seasons in which Denver has had a two-game or more lead with less than three weeks remaining and not made the playoffs. 

Maybe it’s just bad luck or maybe it’s the curse of John Elway.  Mike Shanahan was a genius but didn’t have the same luck without ole No. 7.  The Broncos blew a must-win against a terrible 49ers club two years back and, essentially, a playoff game against the Chargers last year; Shanahan lost his job.  Should McDaniels lose his?

Same story, different path of getting there.  Maybe the solution is hiring John Elway.  Denver fans need to start calling for Elway to get back into the game and on the field in Denver.  Maybe that will bring a little December magic.

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2010 Denver Broncos NFL Draft Player Profile: Idaho G Mike Iupati

After the Denver Broncos lost the most embarrassing game of the season to the Oakland Raiders at home on Sunday, I realized the team’s biggest flaw was the interior of the offensive line.

Now this was not new news, as many Bronco fans have already pointed out that Denver‘s true weaknesses offensively have a lot to do with lack of experience in the system and a totally non-existent interior offensive line.

Led by veterans Casey Wiegmann and Russ Hochstein, the interior of Denver’s line has a ton of experience.  What they boast in the experience category is outweighed immensely by their inability to help the Broncos’ offense move the ball on a consistent basis, especially in short yardage situations.

Denver was unable to run the ball against Oakland, and it is not the first time they have been shut down on the ground this season.  Knowshon Moreno looked absolutely lost when running the ball on Sunday, and Kyle Orton was sacked three times.

The solution to these woes?

Denver must draft Idaho guard Mike Iupati at any cost and actually, the guy could turn out to be quite the bargain.

Iupati stands at 6’5″ and roughly 330 pounds.  He is a mammoth on the interior line and he plays with a mean streak.  For the second straight season, he was named first team All-WAC, and was selected as a first team Walter Camp All-American for the Vandals.  Not to mention he was also one of three finalists for the Outland Trophy, given to the nation’s top interior lineman.

The Broncos’ first round pick is going to turn out to be a very high one, as Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears currently project to send Denver the seventh pick in the 2010 NFL draft as the final piece to the blockbuster trade that occurred this past offseason.

Obviously, Denver is not going to go after Iupati that early in the first round.  What appears to be the best option is to trade down with anyone who is willing, and take Iupati later in the first round if they can.  The only problem is going to be finding a suitor for that pick.

The Broncos do not need to trade down, as their top pick could turn out to be an elite level player like Rolando McClain or dare I say—Ndamukong Suh.

Either way, the Broncos’ interior offensive line is absolutely dreadful, and picking up Iupati would be a step in the right direction.  Denver has lost whatever edge it had offensively, and they are failing to cash in from inside the 20. 

I have been all about bringing in Seth Olsen in the past, and I think that is a route the Broncos definitely will explore.  If Olsen can transition to center, and Iupati can be brought in to start at left guard, the Broncos will dance with joy.

Speaking of interior linemen, how about the performance of Denver’s run defense on Sunday?  Another pitiful output.  The Oakland Raiders racked up nearly 250 total rushing yards against Denver, a number that is utterly unacceptable.

One player who may be able to stop that bleeding is Alabama defensive tackle Terrence Cody, who is an absolute space vacuum in the middle of the defensive line.  Cody demands two blockers on every play, and would give the Broncos a huge weapon defensively.

These are two players I have not been so high on early in the draft scouting process, but I think they are two players the Broncos need to look at acquiring come draft day, and they need to look hard.

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A Fine For Denver Broncos’ Brandon Marshall Would Be Ridiculous

While the Cincinnati Bengals honored fallen teammate Chris Henry by wearing a No. 15 patch on their helmets Sunday, Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall had a different idea.

Marshall, who was friends with Henry while the two were in college, decided to honor Henry by wearing Henry’s nameplate on his jersey during pregame warm-ups before the Bronco’s game against the Oakland Raiders.

However, the move by Marshall violates the NFL‘s uniform policy, as players cannot sport any nicknames, other player’s name, or other numbers on their jerseys. Bengals wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who’s last name was Johnson at the time, was fined in 2007 for his nameplate saying “Ocho Cinco” before the game.

Ochocinco also said earlier in the week that he would wear Henry’s No. 15 jersey in Cincinnati’s matchup with the San Diego Chargers Sunday, no matter how much money he would be finned. But he decided not to wear No. 15.

But for Marshall, this is a special circumstance. He wants to honor his fallen friend by wearing the nameplate on his jersey and I don’t see any reason why the NFL should fine Marshall for this. Quite frankly, if the league does fine the Denver wide out, it would be ridiculous and I think the NFL would make a terrible mistake by doing so. 

There was a report Sunday afternoon that Marshall would receive a “hefty fine,” and if he is, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell would make the “No Fun League” look terrible. Why would you send a message like that?

I can understand getting fined for putting nicknames on jerseys, but when a player is trying to honor another player, it’s pretty sad. If a member of the Los Angeles Angels wore Nick Adenhart’s No. 34 with Adenhart’s name on the back short after his death on April 9, 2009, I don’t think Bud Selig and Major League Baseball would have come after that player. 

“He [Henry] was a buddy of mine,” Marshall told the Colorado Springs Gazette . “It’s devastating to lose him, especially him getting on the right track and being able to turn things around.” 

Henry and Marshall became buddies while the two played against each other in college. Henry played for West Virginia, while Marshall was at Central Florida. 

The NFL and Goodell need to recognize that Marshall’s act was a tribute to his late friend and not an act of self promotion.

However, fanhouse.com is reporting that two league sources said that Goodell has not yet decided if he’ll fine Marshall or not, but fines are not likely. 

Let’s hope so. Fining Marshall would show no class in the league and would not be the right thing to do. 

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Josh McDaniels: It Is Time To Pull Your Head Out of the Sand

A not so funny thing happened on the Denver Broncos way to dreaming of an orange, blue, and white Crushmas—just like the ones they used to know.

They lost to the Oakland Raiders at home…again!

No these aren’t your daddy’s Raiders, these guys are horrible having won only four games prior to their upset of the Broncos in Denver. It is now the second year in a row that the silver and black have become a stumbling block to the orange and blue playoff hopes.  Kyle Orton looked at least as powerless as Jay Cutler as did Coach McDaniels to his predecessor Coach Shanahan.

Perhaps the Broncos kryptonite can be officially labeled as such. Successful franchises have one thing in common that the also ran’s do not. The Denver Broncos used to define success, but lately they have been settling for the latter. Back inside the confines of INVESCO Field at Mile High, the Denver Broncos have clearly forgotten the meaning of finishing. The Broncos as team are not finishing off teams on offense, defense, on the play calls, or in the standings.

This tough loss spells out the difficult challenge to the franchise very clearly. The message is the Josh McDaniels experiment has not improved the franchise. It’s fair to say not just yet, but this may be a glimpse into a future that spells out not at all.

Draw whatever conclusion you will out of the facts, but the bottom line is the Denver Broncos are not performing at the level they should be. Since Coach McDaniels nearly got himself a free pass this season by starting 6-0, his Broncos team has gone 2-6 since that time. Talk about not finishing, the Broncos have two games remaining and that trend tells any fan, analyst, or football expert to stick a fork in them because they’re done.

The Broncos are technically in the playoff picture, but be realistic for a minute. This team must beat a surging Eagles team in a very cold Philadelphia next Sunday. Should the Broncos fail to beat the Eagles they open the door to a lot of teams in the AFC playoff picture. So yes it’s a must win, as is the season finale at home against the Chiefs.

 

Pull Your Head Out of the Sand Coach!

Get real, be honest with yourself and say it is so. Josh McDaniels makes a lot of ignorant calls on the offensive side of the ball, all in the name of selfish pride and arrogance. You don’t believe it still? Tackle-eligible plays, as rare as they are, usually get run on very short yardage situations because of the vulnerability of an offensive lineman handling the ball.  So explain the reasoning to yourself why Josh McDaniels calls a tackle-eligible play to Ryan Clady on the Raider 10 yard line that fails and is penalized. Go ahead, explain that one.

Much was made last week about the lack of playing time for Peyton Hillis, even after starting running back Correll Buckhalter went down with an injury against the Colts. Given the number of short yardage situations the Broncos found themselves in last week and this week, the under bet in Vegas won on this one. Hillis was not used last week or this week even after the Broncos failed countless times on short yardage with a lack of imagination in the play calling and execution.

Perhaps the most damaging indictment against Coach McDaniels was when one of his New England kids, LaMont Jordan, gained a first down and emotionally got up doing a similar gesture to the Gator clap, but he was pounding his fist repeatedly telling his coaches to pound the ball into the end zone from the five with the running game. So true to form the Broncos threw an incompletion through the back of the end zone on the very next play. That forced them into a passing situation on third down which thankfully produced a Brandon Marshall touchdown by the slimmest of margins. The point however is the Broncos are not running well right now.

The Broncos collectively ran for 80 yards against the Raiders. Possibly just as disturbing is the fact that the Broncos were only 26 perent on third down efficiency. That shows a clear lack of aptitude when it matters most against a team they should beat in a game the Broncos had to have. Just as horrific, the Broncos were only 25 percent inside the red zone. That just doesn’t get the job done.

The most surprising fact is that Coach McDaniels has failed to realize what most already know about his play calling. It’s very predictable, not to mention boring, inefficient, and lacks basic common sense in key situations.

So what happened to the imaginative play calling McDaniels was hired for or his understanding of the New England way?

One thing stands clear; it’s now long past time to panic. It’s time for a new direction and a new theme if the Broncos are going to find a win in Philadelphia and find their way into the playoffs.

Coach McDaniels hasn’t played Peyton Hillis probably out of selfish pride at this point, he now needs to consider every option available to him that he has overlooked because his team’s back is against the wall and failure to reach the playoffs will eventually count against him.

It’s time for Coach McDaniels to pull his head out of the sand before it’s too late.

 

contact Chaz at sportsmanagement@gmail.com

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Ego or Bad Coaching?: Snatching Defeat From the Jaws Of Denver Victory—Again

Why in the F*ck is this man smiling??

How often does a first year Head Coach have an opportunity to show their knowledge, maturity and growth? Especially when you are 33 freaking years old?

On the other hand, how often does a 33 Year old Head Coach have the opportunity to let his ego write checks his team can’t cash?

This was the case in the game between Denver and Oakland at Mile High Invesco or High Invesco Mile or whatever today.

Watching a young egotistical head coach call the same lame up-the-gut running plays with an undersized running back and a pass-oriented O-line over and over and over again and losing yardage or getting 1 or 2 Yards when 4-5 yards are needed to either score a TD or gain a 1st down is getting old.

In situation after situation and game after game, we see the same thing. This is a true real-life example of defining failure as doing the same thing over and over with the same negative results but expecting a different outcome.

The only thing more predictable in the NFL right now is getting close-ups of siliconed-enhanced Cheerleaders on the sidelines when breaking for or going into mandated commercials.

Even if Josh would use Hillis or Clady or Larsen or one of those faux-bosomed sideline eye candy prancers instead of Moreno, there MIGHT be a slight chance of a different outcome. Or possibly throwing a short pass to—GASP!—Marshall, Graham, Stokley (or even the aforementioned Clady) there could be a slightly higher chance of success.

I am not sure if this is a result of too many games under the shadow of St. Billy  Belichick and his water-walking success with a much better short yardage team or maybe too many games wearing that stupid hoody that has cut off the circulation to his 33 year old brain.

No matter what the reasons are, until his ego gets a major surgical reduction or he actually looks at past results, I guess the Denver fan base can only expect the same outcome.

And that is a future that really sucks, if you are a Bronco supporter. Or even a fan of good football.

Of course, Raider/Chief/Charger fans are chuckling and snorting into their collective beers.

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Denver Broncos: 3rd and Uh Oh

If there was one thing sacred in my entire existence, it used to be that the Broncos were absolute money on third and short come Sundays.

Everyone and their mothers knew what would happen in that situation and sure enough the ball was snapped, handed to the RB on a stretch in the now-famous one cut and go style, then poof, like it was magic first and ten. 

Those were the days.

Even last season when the Broncos put every RB in existence on their IR whenever the Broncos needed to convert a crucial 3rd or 4th and short, we did it.  We were not as successful as in the past, but let’s be real, last season was the exception, not the rule.

As I watch my team struggle this season with that type of situation I find myself wanting to find one guy I can blame, one person that I can point to and say “WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH THE RUNNING GAME YOU A$$%#@!&”, but I can’t. 

I’m one of those people who tries to be as honest and real as possible all the time, so in this a moment of weakness, I must stay true to myself.

That said, there is not one person who can be blamed for the Broncos struggles on the ground in short yardage situation this season, they are all to blame.

If you watch the games as closely as I do, you will notice that the Broncos are caught in a classic transition from one system or style of running to another and therefore, they are not performing either the old one or the new one up to par.

When McDaniels got here we all knew he was going to install his offense but never in my wildest dreams did I think he would mess with one of if not the most prolific running scheme for the last decade and a half, call me naive if you want but I just didn’t think that would happen.

Like most times when I think such thoughts, the complete opposite happened and McDaniels brought his running-game scheme with him.

While I was surprised, a small part of me kinda expected it and its not like his scheme is horrible, but like the zone blocking scheme, his requires a unique type of offensive lineman, one that we do not have within the organization. 

Its no secret that McDaniels prefers a power scheme with big, bulldozer type of linemen, and the Broncos always prefered the smaller, yet more athletic linemen.

Obviously, this type of linemen are not interchangeable and so that causes a problem.  That is not to say all is lost along the offensive line, we do have a pair of elite tackles in Clady and Harris (when healthy), that can perform both styles and not just do it well, they can be dominant. 

However, the problem lies in the interior of the offensive line, this is where our guards and centers are experiencing the biggest problem with the transition and have been getting dominated.

Kuper, Olsen (R) and Hochstein all have good size and strength, while Hamilton and Wiegmann are both very savvy and athletic, they are undersized and constantly overmatched. 

Both Kuper and Olsen are young players who have shown a lot of promise within the new scheme, they also have the frame to put on more weight if required.

Hamilton and Wiegmann, who have been sharing duties as the main centers for the O-line, are both on the last leg of their careers and with each passing week, this area has become an even bigger area of concern.

Depth along the interior is another issue because behind Kuper and Olsen only Hochstein remains and he is another one that is on the latter part of his career. 

That is not to say that this “grey beards” can’t perform they certainly can, but only as stop gaps they are no longer dominant as they once were, especially the centers.

This is not the only issue though, play calling is another area of concern.  If anyone would please explain to me why on God’s green earth are we running a two-tight end set on short yardage instead of putting Hillis and Larsen in the backfield and just plowing ahead?

Let’s not pull a guard, just put your big boys out there and let them do what they do best, which is maul each other over.

I don’t know if its that McDaniels refuses to use a two-back set in that type of situation, but at some point he has got to realize that what he has been doing is not working and he needs to change it up and try something that will get the job done.

Two weeks ago against the Chiefs (yeah I know its the Chiefs), we saw Hillis carry people on his back for five or six yards on almost every play that he was in, while last week against the Colts we struggled to gain a couple of yards on some crucial third and forth downs. 

I can’t help but think that maybe, just maybe, if we would’ve ran Hillis up the middle with Larsen as his lead blocker he might have been able to carry the Colts linebackers and get the yardage needed for a first down. 

Linebackers are quick and athletic but smaller than our 250-pound RB/FB, and let’s not forget that Hillis has what you might call deceptive speed.

McDaniels’ love affair with the one back set in short yardage is inexplicable given our personnel along the interior line. 

His system is not at fault here; it’s his refusal to concede to the fact he simply does not have the right personnel right now to run it that concerns me.

I mentioned above that depth is an issue as well, and that is because no matter how talented and how much promise Kuper and Olsen show, we need to be able to rotate them in and out because they will get tired after a couple of plays. 

Trust me I know, I am a big guy and no matter how much you train and exercise, if your a big person you will lose your breath rather quickly. 

This issue however, is a fairly easy fix, we just need to address it either through FA or the upcoming draft and I am confident that McDaniels will do so.

Also, the issue at center will be addressed through the either medium as well.

As disappointed as I am in this area I must give the devil his due, McDaniels has coached his rear end off this season and has silenced most, if not all of his critics. 

He is an extremely smart and bright coach who’s got a very long and bright future ahead of him (hopefully with the Broncos) filled with Super Bowl trophies I’m certain. 

I am also confident that this little issue will be ironed out sometime in the near future and we will once again experience the certainty of the Broncos in a short-yardage situation.

At least we got the Raiders coming into town this Sunday, and just like good chicken soup, the Raiders are always a cure for whatever ails you.

GO BRONCOS!!!!!!!

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The Future of Denver Broncos Quarterbacks

When I thought of Kyle Orton at the helm of my beloved Broncos I honestly went nuts.  Just the mere thought of it made me a little queasy, not because I loved Cutler on the contrary but because I just didn’t see Orton performing to the level he has thus far.

I was obviously wrong and Orton has performed well above anyone’s expectations, but the question remains, is Orton the future at QB?

Well lets break it down.

Orton is still young enough at 27 to be the future and while his stats don’t really scream future star they definitely don’t scream the Griese blues.  Orton has size, arm strength and better yet accuracy to take care of business at this level, but something is missing.  Orton is the type of QB who prides himself in not putting his team in a difficult spot by making silly mistakes.

He is a smart QB who studies hard learns the game plan and follows it to the letter.  However it is in there where his biggest weakness also resides.  While he does so much of the work right Orton lacks the killer instinct that would allow him take the next step.  I am referring to that certain “thing” that sets aside a QB like Manning or Brady among so many others in the rich history of this our beloved sport.

It is that (not to quote Marty again) gleam that twinkle in their eyes that ability to every once in a while put the team on his back and say “I’ll get us there boys”.  It’s that ability to know when the plan is not working and start winging it that separates the great ones from the average.

Elway did in record fashion while Manning does it almost on a weekly basis and guys like Montana, Marino, Favre, Brady and Young knew when to go ahead and just ” turn it on” and take their team to victory.  Now I do recognize that a big part of this comes from familiarity with not only the scheme but the players as well but the x factor resides with the QB.

He is the one that has the most contact with the coaches and he is the one that can always call an audible to put the team in a spot to win.  All of the QB that I mentioned above had that killer instinct and they never seem to be satisfied always wanted more and were willing to put life and limb on the line to get the W, while Kyle sometimes seems happy to just not throw a pick.

I hope that this is not viewed as a bashing of Orton because as I said before a lot of that killer instinct will come with time spent with the players and within the system and I certainly hope Orton has it and its just waiting to unveil it when he is more comfortable, but as of now this is where, in my opinion, lye’s his biggest weakness.

So does that mean that the future is in the roster already?  Well, While I do like Brandstater (I think Sims should join his father in the booth) his measurable are very similar to Orton’s.  Brandstater has great size, athleticism, accuracy and great arm strength (think Matt Ryan not Jay Cutler) it is too early and I have yet to see him get any meaningful time on the field.

I will say this though, Brandstater did show a grittiness and that killer instinct in college as well as playing in a pro style offense and that bodes well for the rookie.

Some of my fellow brothers in orange and blue have taken to the draft already to answer this question, I have heard the likes of Tebow, Bradford, McCoy, Pike, Locker, and many others as the future answer, well I say not so fast.

Beware of the siren call of this young studs coming out of college with promises of stardom.  Most of this guys are coming from the spread option system a system that while its success at the college ranks can not be denied, it is a system that exploits the biggest disparity in the college ranks, which are speed and awareness.

The spread option preys on the difference in speed between schools and the mere fact that student athletes just simply don’t have the time to do the necessary amount of film study to read the little signs.  It is also a system that create habits in QBs that would be frowned upon at the pro level.

Some examples of this bad habits are bad footwork and bad mechanics.  QBs like Tebow, McCoy and Bradford while talented, would have to have their mechanics and footwork broken down in a long and hard process that would take a few years to see any returns on.  That is why I simply don’t like QBs coming out of this system.  Some of you might be angry at this point but the proof is in the pudding.

Russell, Smith, and Young are big examples of spread option QBs that have yet to perform in the pros. 

The spread option is at its best when it takes advantage of the difference in speed between the offense and the defense, but when you take into consideration the fact that in the NFL “elite” speed is as common as wet ones in a BBQ joint the scheme falls apart.  Which in turns impedes the QB from this system, to do what he does best, which is make one or two reads and either throw it or take of running.

When that is taken away the bad footwork and bad mechanics are more noticeable.  It is no coincidence that the young QBs that have the most success in the NFL are those that come out of pro style systems in college. 

Regardless of whether we look at the short or long term it is the QBs like Flacco, Ryan, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, and Palmer, that have all come out of pro style systems in college that have always had more success and are able to sustain it.

If the Broncos feel like they must address this situation through the draft I hope they are not lured by the hype machine of the BCS and the big schools but instead take long hard looks at guys like Skelton, Pike, and Locker among others. 

They may not be as hyped as their big school counter parts but the meassurables are there along with the good footwork and good mechanics.  Their learning curve will be considerably shorter and if history is any indication, and it usually is, they will produce faster and longer.

However, I believe that the answer might be closer than we think, with more time I am confident that either Orton or Brandstater will prove to be more than capable.  They might not be up to our unusually high expectations but if Dilfer won a Super Bowl I know that Orton or Brandstater can win at least two.

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Fordham’s John Skelton: A Franchise QB of the Future in Hiding?

Sleepers are becoming a hot trend of the NFL draft.  In fact, one might argue that the “sleeper” is not becoming a huge part of the draft, but it is something that has already become.

In today’s NFL, it seems that the unheralded prospects are the ones making their way to the top faster than others, and the “sure things” are falling through the cracks.  Players like DeMarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora of Troy are having stellar careers when top picks like Vernon Gholston and Jarvis Moss of Ohio State and Florida respectively are largely busts.

Now, am I trying to paint the picture that every small school kid is destined to turn out to be the next great NFL star?  Hardly.  I am merely suggesting that small schools can produce big playmakers for the National Football League.

Probably the rarest form of a small college sleeper is found at the quarterback position, where former Delaware quarterback Joe Flacco (now of the Baltimore Ravens) has somewhat paved the way for those lesser known signal callers to make their way to the NFL.

Potentially following in Flacco’s footsteps is Fordham quarterback John Skelton, a pro-style field general from the great state of Texas.  Though Skelton was not heavily recruited in high school, he has put together one of the more impressive careers in FCS history for the Fordham Rams.

Now, many are going to have to take that last sentence with a grain of salt, but this kid seems to have the skillset it takes to play at the next level.

I am not trying to paint this young gun like the next Peyton Manning, but upon watching some highlight video of what he has done in college, here is a quick scouting report:

Strengths

• Arm Strength
• Footwork
• Escape Ability
• Accuracy on deep throws
• NFL size

Weaknesses

• Lower Release Point
• Not very dominant despite low level of competition, but clearly a man among boys.

Skelton is listed at 6’5″ and a remarkable 258 pounds, which is roughly 57 pounds more than he weighed when he was a high school senior.  That kind of weight growth is normal for a lineman or tight end, but certainly not for a quarterback.  Obviously Skelton has been on some kind of weight training regiment to get him in prime NFL shape.

Despite all of the added weight, Skelton remains very mobile and active in the pocket.  Upon watching film, he has excellent footwork in the pocket.  He moves around very well and reads the pressure like an NFL quarterback needs to.  The speed of the game increases in the NFL probably about 20 times as fast as it is in the Patriot League, but he appears to have the correct instincts to make it work.

Another thing I really liked was his quick release and arm strength, especially on deep throws.  In the film available online, he hits deep out routes with relative ease, and has great touch on his deep ball.  He doesn’t put too much air under his passes, which is key at the next level in terms of the speed of the defensive backs.

The only thing that concerns me is a lack of pure dominance at a lower level of college competition.  He has over 10,000 total yards in his time at Fordham, but players like Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy have demolished that mark against the top levels of competition.  You wonder why Skelton has been unable to do that.

Regardless, if a lack of dominance is the only thing preventing this kid, he should be just fine.  If he gets into the correct system at the next level, he could be a star two or three years down the road.  He has the size and skills to make it at the next level, and he could be one to watch for on draft day.

Skelton can be had likely for the low, low price of a fifth round draft pick or later, so keep an eye out.

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