The Denver Broncos (5-0, First place AFC West) are off to their best start in over a decade as they head West to San Diego to take on their division rival Chargers (2-2, Second place AFC West) in the week six Monday Night Football matchup.

Prior to the season starting, no one outside of die-hard Denver fans would have thought that the San Diego Chargers would be the team in disarray after five weeks of the season, but here we are.

The Chargers recently cut ties with veteran starting safety Clinton Hart, and General Manager A.J. Smith has called out his team for not performing up to their full potential.

One player Smith “hurt” in particular was hybrid linebacker/defensive end Shawne Merriman, who many believe could also be on the chopping block in San Diego as he plays out the final year of his rookie contract.

The Chargers simply have not found their groove so far this season, and are not seemingly close to finding it. 

They have injury issues on both the offensive and defensive lines, and their best player of this decade in LaDainian Tomlinson has also been fending off the injury bug.

Inversely, the Broncos are playing top-notch ball, led by their number one ranked defense who is allowing a league-best 8.6 points per contest. 

This rivalry is one the Chargers have dominated in recent years, but this is the first time they will face a non-Mike Shanahan led Broncos team.  For once, this matchup seems a bit lop-sided in favor of the Broncos rather than the Bolts.

Here are my keys to victory for Denver when they head to San Diego in week six.

 

1.  Take away the screen pass to Darren Sproles

This is one of the Chargers’ biggest offensive weapons.  They absolutely love to hit Darren Sproles with a screen pass on third down situations, and they execute it well.

Sproles has caught only 15 passes this year, but he is averaging over 13 yards per reception.  He is a big weapon for this team and Philip Rivers when they need to be bailed out on third and long situations.

The Broncos can neutralize this by giving the Chargers a lot of different looks on third downs, mainly faking blitzes.  If the Broncos can disguise their blitzing well, they will be able to shut down this particular facet of the Charger offense.

 

2.  Assign a defender to TE Antonio Gates

Gates is having one of his better seasons as a professional so far in 2009.  He has 24 receptions for 349 yards, and he seems to have a knack for getting open.

The Broncos cannot let that happen.

Denver shut down Jason Witten in week four against the Dallas Cowboys, so there is no reason to believe they cannot bottle up Gates.

My guess is that the Broncos will either try and assign a defender like Wesley Woodyard to Gates or maybe somebody like Jack Williams, who could be giving up a lot of size but who has done a phenomenal job so far this season.

 

3.  Dominate the Running Game (Offensively and Defensively)

The running game statistics so blatantly favor the Broncos in this game it is almost unfair. 

Denver is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 139, and the Chargers are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum.  They average 53.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 32nd (also known as “Dead Last”).

Defensively, the Broncos allow a mere 81 yards per game on the ground, ranking them sixth in the NFL.  The Chargers are allowing opponents 151 yards rushing per contest, which is sixth worst in the league.

The statistics indicate that Denver will be able to dominate this game on the ground, both offensively and defensively.  The San Diego front seven has been anything but impressive so far this year, and the Broncos have been absolutely stellar. 

Denver is potentially getting a boost from veteran Correll Buckhalter, who missed last week’s game with an ankle sprain.  He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but that is more than he has done in a while.  The Broncos are hoping he can go Monday night to give them their one-two punch of he and Knowshon Moreno, who leads all rookies in rushing yards.

 

4.  Pin your ears back, and get to Philip Rivers

If the Chargers are unable to establish a running game, the Broncos could have a field day in terms of quarterback sacks.

This is a unit that ranks second in the NFL in quarterback take-downs with 16, and they are facing a San Diego offensive line that is battered.

Still, the Charger line has given up a fairly respectable 10 sacks this season, so there are no guarantees.

The Broncos need to make the Chargers one dimensional by shutting down the run, then hit them where it hurts.

Creating pressure on Philip Rivers is not easy, as he is a very smart quarterback who can get the ball out quickly, but the Broncos have proven they can put pressure on most teams.

The only team that has been able to shut Denver down in terms of pass rush has been the New England Patriots, and their offensive line is far superior to San Diego’s. 

The Broncos likely will bring a lot of disguised defensive looks as I stated earlier, and Elvis Dumervil could have another multi-sack game.

 

5.  When you get the ball, get in the END ZONE

This has really been the only flaw for the Broncos this year.  In the past two games, Denver has had to overcome a ten point first quarter deficit. 

That simply will not fly with a potent offense like San Diego.

The Broncos have had plenty of opportunities to score early on, but they have been unable to take advantage early.

All the talk about Kyle Orton now being an MVP candidate, Knowshon Moreno as the early favorite for rookie of the year, Brandon Marshall playing the best ball of his career, and having a dominant offensive line means absolutely nothing if you cannot put up points.

The Broncos’ offense, give them credit, has gotten points when it matters most, which is why they are 5-0, but they absolutely have to score touchdowns when they get to the red zone.

They have had virtually no trouble at all moving the ball down the field, ranking sixth in the NFL in total offense, but they rank a dismal 22nd in scoring at just under 20 points per game.

 

Positional Breakdown

Quarterback:  Broncos

Running Back:  Broncos

Wide Receiver:  Broncos

Tight End:  Chargers

Offensive Line:  Broncos

Defensive Line:  Broncos

Linebacker:  Broncos

Defensive Back:  Broncos

Special Teams:  Chargers

Advantage:  Broncos

After looking at the positional breakdown, it is clear who has the advantage in this game.  I do not like to discredit other teams, because the Chargers are certainly capable of putting up “X” amount of points on any given night—but they are just too one dimensional and too battered up front right now.

The biggest factor in the Chargers’ favor is home field advantage, and maybe catching Denver on a high.  The Broncos have yet to suffer a let-down this season, and they appear to be a very well-coached, very disciplined team.

In all, this game will come down to who can win the time of possession battle.  The Broncos have the decided advantage in run offense and run defense, so they should be able to accomplish that.

It should also be noted that the Chargers are allowing opponents a 49 percent conversion rate on third down, which is very good news for the Broncos.

This, like all Chargers-Broncos games should be a great one to watch.  The Chargers have an offense that is capable of exploding at any given time, and the Broncos have a smashmouth defense.

The Chargers are in desperate need of a victory coming off of their bye week, as they could potentially trail Denver by 3.5 games if they lose at home on Monday night.  The Broncos do not want to allow San Diego any hope of pulling off something similar to what they did last year, and they hope to increase their lead in the AFC West heading into a bye week of their own before they face Baltimore.

Is it Monday yet?

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