If ifs and buts

Were candy and nuts…

These are a few of our favorite things!

 

When the playoffs near

And the picture’s in view but not so clear

These are a few of our favorite things!

 

Self-realization as a football fan starts now.

Admit it, whether you are religious in having a faith in God or not, or you celebrate the holidays or not, you as the NFL fan love this time of year.

The playoffs start in less than four weeks. Shortly after the last regular season games on Jan. 3 take place, the playoff picture will be official.

As of now, there is still a great deal of wiggle room, especially in the AFC, but this week is the time to nail down the possible playoff entry scenarios. You have to map that out first before you can speculate on the possible matchups, so here’s a definitive look at the AFC Playoff picture and how it impacts the Denver Broncos most specifically.

 

Kiss Home Field Advantage Goodbye

As everyone knows, the Indianapolis Colts are set to run the table in the AFC, as they may finish the regular season undefeated. Then the road to the Super Bowl goes through Indianapolis.

There is a remote yet favorable speculation that might land San Diego in Indy first. That situation could be the best thing for the rest of the AFC playoff picture, so stay tuned.

For now, however, give the Colts credit for yet another amazing run under Peyton Manning. The Colts are currently 13-0 with three games remaining. Not even 13-0 New Orleans in the NFC has wrapped up home field like the Colts have at this stage.

Here’s how the rest of the AFC teams shake out.

 

San Diego Chargers

Just a month and a half ago we were calling them the San Diego Super-chokers. Suddenly there is life in San Diego, where this team is living up to its billing. The Chargers are 10-3 overall, 7-3 in the AFC, and 5-1 in the AFC West. This all virtually guarantees the Chargers a share of the AFC West Division crown at the very least.

If the Chargers win this week and the Broncos lose, San Diego will represent the AFC West and probably be the second seed in the AFC.

There is, however, a very interesting game in the AFC this weekend involving the Chargers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. These two teams are currently No. 2 and No. 3 in the AFC playoff picture. This matchup will define which team has the inside track to the No. 2 position. This is a key game because whichever team loses this game could be the first team to play at Indianapolis in the playoffs.

If San Diego and Denver win, they guarantee the second seed in the AFC will be an AFC West team. If Denver loses, they will officially only make it as a wild card team.

If disaster hits San Diego and they lose three games in a row, they would lose the AFC West if Denver won all of their remaining games.

If San Diego loses two of their remaining three games and Denver wins all of their remaining three games, the two teams tie head-to-head in the division.

The tiebreaker will then go to conference play. The Chargers currently own a 7-3 edge to the Broncos’ 6-4 conference record. If the Chargers lose to Cincinnati and Tennessee, it puts Denver back on the inside track if they win out. That is the best scenario for the Broncos outside of a Chargers three-game skid.  

Say the Chargers do lose to the Titans and the Bengals while beating Washington and Denver wins out. This would put Denver at 8-4 in conference play and San Diego at 7-5.  The Denver Broncos would then own the second seed in the AFC.

If San Diego loses the rest of their games, they will lose tiebreakers to Miami and Baltimore because of head-to-head losses this year.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals could own the second seed in the AFC, but they must win this weekend against San Diego. If the Bengals lose, the AFC West will own the second seed due to head-to-head losses to the Chargers and Broncos.

The Bengals could wind up 9-3 in conference play, which would make them the second seed in the AFC.

The game against the Chargers on Sunday is paramount to the AFC playoff picture.

The Bengals lose their division lead if and only if they lose all of their last three games and the Baltimore Ravens win all of their remaining three games.

 

New England Patriots

The only shot New England has at being the second seed is to win all of their remaining games. San Diego will have to lose all of their remaining games. The Bengals will have to beat San Diego and lose their remaining two, and Denver will have to lose two or more games.

The Patriots have a tough stretch in playing at Buffalo, hosting Jacksonville, and finishing out at Houston. 

The biggest competition for New England is in their division. They could lose their division to the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets if they slide much more.

The chances for New England to own a wild card slot are slim, especially if they lose to the Jaguars because they would then lose tiebreakers to the Jags and the Broncos. The Pats split with the Jets and Dolphins and only own the tiebreaker against the Ravens.

 

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos currently have the inside track to the No. 1 wild card slot in the AFC. They can win the division only if they win out and San Diego loses two of their next three, preferably against the Bengals and the Titans. Denver can also win the division if they have the same record as the Chargers but that would require the Chargers to lose both games to their remaining AFC teams while Denver wins out against their AFC opponents.  The Broncos could own the second seed in the AFC if the Chargers lose the division and the Broncos at least tie the Bengals’ overall record.

This would mean the Broncos could host at least one playoff game.

If the Broncos wind up as the wild card, they will not have a home game unless both wild card teams run the table, which is highly unlikely.

Denver owns wild card tiebreakers against the Bengals and Patriots. The Broncos have an edge over the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Jets but lose tiebreakers to the Ravens and Steelers.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Jags survive Indy and New England, they could be the toughest team heading into the playoffs. The Jags just lost to Miami, however, so they are vulnerable, especially when you consider they would lose a key tiebreaker to the Dolphins.

If the Jags win out, they still can’t win their division thanks to the Colts.

The Jags could surpass the Broncos if they win more conference games. Currently the Broncos are at 6-4 with two conference games against the Raiders and Chiefs. The Jags are at 6-3 with the Colts, Patriots, and Browns remaining. 

Not helping the Jaguars’ cause is that they haven’t sold out this season and are subject to local television blackouts.

 

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens can only win their division if they win out and the Bengals lose out, which is not likely.

The Ravens, however, are a very scary proposition for the Broncos since they own the tiebreaker against the Broncos.

If Denver loses just one game and the Ravens win out, the Ravens will own the head-to-head on the Broncos, which in effect could push Denver out of the playoffs even if they win 10 games.

The Ravens currently own other tiebreakers against the Chargers and Steelers but lose them to the Patriots.

The Ravens could win out against Chicago, the Steelers, and at Oakland.

 

Miami and the Jets

The reality is these two teams are hanging on for life. Their best shot at the playoffs is if the Patriots lose their grip on the division and the Jaguars and Broncos lose games.

These two teams are on life support and need a lot of help.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Who are they kidding? The defending World Champions are done—stick a fork in them. The one thing they can do is beat Baltimore, which opens the door for Denver, Jacksonville, Miami, and New York.

 

For Broncos fans, the most direct route to the playoffs is three wins in a row. They could win the division and the second seed. As long as the Broncos beat the Raiders and Chiefs in Denver, their route is fairly secure, but they are highly vulnerable to the Ravens and Jaguars in tie scenarios for wild card slots. So losses by the Ravens and Jaguars are appreciated. 

 

Contact Chaz at sportsmanagement@gmail.com

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

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