The Broncos are going to win games this year and make it to the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Here are five reasons why, in order of significance and impact:

 

1) Defense

McDaniels and Nolan will do the right thing and draft defense through the first 3 rounds come draft day.

Picking up a big nose tackle to anchor down the 3-4 is crucial. If B.J. Raji is still available at 12, jump for joy Bronco fans. His 6’4″ 340 lb frame and athleticism will enable him to step immediately in as a starter and demand doubling up from opposing team players.

If Raji is gone by 12, the Broncos will go for the highest DE or LB familiar with 3-4 still available. They should easily land a ready-to-start player here.

18 should go to a lineman or LB. Maybe a run stuffing hard hitting safety?

Finding defensive role players beyond the second round will be key.

So…A group of enthusiastic younger defensive players coupled with the veteran leadership picked up in free agency, under the guidance of Mike Nolan… should equal a much improved defense. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the defensive will rank in the top 12 this year, a nice climb out of the basement of last season.

 

2) The “System”

McD is a “system” coach, and the system he brings is top notch.

The system is this: no single player is above the team. Each player fills a very specific and somewhat narrow role. The trick is for the coaching staff to find those players who are A) coachable, and B) willing to play a specific role.

If players buy in (or can be motivated to buy in), it WILL work.

Bottom line, if the team can come out and win four of its first six games, McD will have gained the trust of the players, putting McJaygate behind him. Players having confidence in the system is what it’s all about. McDaniels will have to prove that he can implement it.

I believe that he will, and once that ball is rolling, he’ll gain momentum and take the Broncos to the playoffs.

A few other notes: The system is extremely effective in the Red Zone. The system is not static and predictable (though it sounds like it would be). It’s very good at adapting and modifying. Expect blistering first half’s and ball control second half’s if things go right.

 

3) Kyle Orton

He’s underrated. The defense he had to deal with in Chicago was nearly as bad as Denver’s. Orton never had a single stellar receiver to throw to. Now he’s got Marshall and Royal and Scheffler, etc.

He had a “meh” offensive line. His running back (rookie Forte), though good, was over-rated.

The thing about Orton is that his team wins games when he’s at QB.

He is accurate, and doesn’t turn over the ball a lot.

He can dink and plink accurately all day with his passes, making him an excellent McD fit. He was extremely well liked and respected in the Chicago locker room. A leader.
He knows his place, and is eager to learn.

He’s no Jay Cutler, but he’s not a Jake Plummer either. He’s somewhere in between, with a much better attitude than either.

And by the way…
Orton will be the first Broncos quarterback to NOT be compared to John Elway. He’s going to be compared to Jay Cutler. The pressure of Saint Elway is gone. At least with Cutler comparisons, Orton has the ability to get that particular monkey off his back.

He could do it as early as the first season, if he can effectively lead the Broncos and perhaps even finish with a better record than the Bears. It would take him 16 years and two Super Bowl rings to get Elway off his back.

 

4) Offensive Line

Kyle Orton has never played behind a line like this.

Neither has Tom Brady for that matter.

The Broncos have a top-five offensive line. These guys will keep Orton standing, and will bust open some holes for the running backs. McD will use running backs and tight ends as blockers more often than Shanahan did.

So, Orton should be well protected this coming year. With his spectacular receiver core dashing around out there, it could potentially be a lot of fun to watch this team.

The Broncos should pick up a center or LG later in the draft, as those positions, though solid now, are getting up there in years.

 

5) Running back by committee

When you think New England Patriots, you don’t initially think running game. But last year they ranked in the top 10 or above in almost every critical running back stat on the books.

It’s also interesting to note that the Pats were essentially a 50/ 50 offensive team (running 50 percent of the time, passing 50 percent of the time). Expect a more balanced offensive attack this year in Denver.

There will not be a star back. Backs will be rotated in and out quickly and often. The backs who are most able to get with this system in training camp (and do it with a smile) will be the ones still on the roster come the regular season.

Under McD, each running back will have a very specific and fairly narrow role. Backs will be asked to block more than under Shanahan. They’ll also account for a lot of receptions underneath, and lot’s of little screens. Arrington (picked up from Arizona) is particularity well suited for this role, by the way.

We’ll be seeing a lot of running backs getting into the end zone, and it won’t all be rushing scores. The running backs will come alive in the red zone under McDaniels.

I think overall, the Broncos will still have a bit of a “rebuilding” feel to them, and that there will be some tumultuous moments in training camp and even into the preseason, but I think that by the time the regular season starts, there’s going to be one heck of a team on the field.

Meanwhile, over in Chicago I think things might be a little rough. Cutler was kept upright thanks to a tough offensive line. He’s going to be eating dirt a bunch in Chicago behind a below average O-line with only an average (at best) receiving core to toss to.

If running back Forte goes down, it’s all over: Forte will be the only thing keeping pressure off Cutler, and if he’s out, teams are going to line up and run over Jay all day long.

It’s interesting to note that Forte averaged only 3.9 yards a carry last year.
EVERY SINGLE Bronco’s running back individually averaged more than that last year. It’s fair to say that Denver had a better running game than Chicago last season.

Chicago’s defense is better than what Denver put on the field in 2008, but not remarkably so. The Bear’s defense ranked 30th in passing yards allowed and 21st in total yards allowed.

The fans in Chicago aren’t going to give Cutler much of a honey moon either. They lost two first-round picks and a winning, well liked quarterback. If things begin to get a little ugly, like maybe the Bears stumble out of the gates and Cutler starts sulking or being moody…it’s going to be a long year in the Windy City.

 

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