What Next?: Broncos’ Numerous Injuries Leave Denver with Makeshift Offense

I know it’s only a preseason game, and I know the regular season is still two weeks away, and I know it’s a 16-game schedule—but Denver Broncos fans must have their fingers over the panic button right about now.

Given the storyline, this game offered rare value for a preseason contest. It’s not often that a franchise quarterback switches franchises in the prime of his youth. But that is what happened this offseason when new head coach Josh McDaniels shipped the Broncos’ franchise quarterback off to the Chicago Bears in exchange for Kyle Orton.

To top off that monster deal, the Broncos are now faced with an injured Orton, who injured the index finger on his throwing hand in the loss to the Bears on Sunday night. Backup QB Chris Simms is also on the shelf with a high ankle sprain and would not be ready to go in the season opener.

In addition, first round draft pick Knowshon Moreno is nursing an injury that also may have him out for the season opener, which will place the running game square on the shoulders of longtime Philadelphia running back Correll Buckhalter.

In the wide receiver department, things look no better for the Broncos. They have suspended Brandon Marshall, basically for not having his head screwed on straight, and Jabar Gaffney is nicked up.

The Denver starting lineup on opening day could possibly go something like this:

QB—Tom Brandstater
RB—Correll Buckhalter
WR—Brandon Stokley (not bad though)
WR—Chad Jackson
WR—Nate Swift

Now after the preseason game Sunday night against the Bears, where Chicago and new franchise quarterback Jay Cutler (courtesy of McDaniels and the Broncos) came into their yard and did them up, the Broncos have all the injuries to starters and playmakers staring them square in the face two weeks before the season opener—leaving, I’m sure, many Denver fans thinking, “What next?”

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Denver Broncos Look to Make a Statement Before Even Taking the Field

Josh McDaniels wants to build a winning team in Denver.  Beyond that goal however, he has proven that he is a coach dedicated to building a winning mentality. 

With the Denver Broncos in a 2-7 rut following their early season winning streak, they find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture with one game to go.  The Broncos (8-7) will play a Kansas City team that has underwhelmed on the whole, but has proven capable of upsets over quality teams (having beaten a backsliding Steelers team in overtime in week 11).

For this critical game McDaniels elected to deactivate the team’s leading offensive weapon in Brandon Marshall.  He went a step further by making clear the move was not purely for health reasons, calling it “a coaching decision, not a medical issue.”

He elaborated by stating “our word for the week has been accountability. And we’re looking to put the 45 guys on the field on Sunday that want to play together, want to help us try to win and qualify for the playoffs, and anybody that showed any indifference to that, we’ll play without them.”

With their playoff life on the line, McDaniels elected to drill a point home to the rest of his team; anyone is expendable if they don’t show the proper fire and desire.  The chances of a second reconciliation in the offseason (after starting this year in a tumultuous fashion) are quite slim.

Marshall had complained of trouble with his hamstring, and maintained he would not have been able to go should McDaniels have left him active.  McDaniels disagreed. 

“There’s a number of players that are going to play on Sunday with things that are much more difficult to deal with than what he has,” he stated, taking care to drive the point home by making mention three separate times.

Marshall disagreed, but kept his comments milder than he had during the offseason, “I don’t think Coach ever played in the NFL, so for my hamstring to be feeling the way it felt, it’s tough for me to go out there and expect to play at a high level,” Marshall stated, “I’ve battled through a whole lot of injuries before. I played the whole year last year with a tear in my hip. So, I don’t think my toughness is in question here.”

One of Marshall’s major contentions during the offseason when making trade demands was how the team handled his prior injury.  He had claimed the extent of the injury was concealed from him, and that he was encouraged to play through the injury despite its severity.

When asked of McDaniels’ references to accountability, Marshall continued, “Well, accountability and injury is different, you know?”  He then added, “I pulled, well, I wouldn’t say I pulled my hamstring, it’s definitely not that bad, but it’s tough.”

Ultimately McDaniels contended that Marshall was putting self interests ahead of the team, possibly concerned with how a poor game might impact his value in the offseason at the expense of fighting to earn the team a playoff berth.

The 6-0 start behind a team thought to be beginning to rebuild was a signal to a changing culture.  McDaniels now has to fight the same second half woes that led to a collapse by Denver after an 8-4 start virtually assuring them the division collapsed into an 8-8 close that cost Mike Shanahan his job.

Will McDaniels’ far more hard-line approach ultimately benefit Denver?  That remains to be seen.  With a win Denver could earn themselves a playoff appearance, but in doing so they have likely just lost a pro-bowl wide receiver.

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Broncos Bench Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler for Season Finale

It’s 2010, and already the Denver Broncos are in the news for all the wrong reasons.

Again.

The team announced today that wide receiver Brandon Marshall and tight end Tony Scheffler would be deactivated for Sunday’s finale against the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both players were benched with one common theme: accountability.

“There’s a number of factors that go into that, but there’s a lot of players that will play with things that are probably more difficult to play with than what he has.”

“Our word for the week has been accountability. We’re looking to put the 45 guys on the field on Sunday that want to play together. We talked about it as a squad on Wednesday that that’s what’s going to happen this week, and anyone that showed any indifference to that, we’ll play without them, and we’ll play well anyway.”

“Teams win late in the year,” McDaniels said. “If you have players that aren’t going to put that ahead of everything else, then that can certainly be detrimental to your club.”

“We’re all accountable to give our very best effort to Pat Bowlen, to this organization, to this city, to the people that support us, to each other—that’s what this is about.”

Seems a little late in the season to be benching big time receiving threats because of accountability, especially when the passing game is already enough of a liability as it currently stands.

Josh McDaniels is certainly making a statement, though nobody is quite sure if he is completely in the right here.  There obviously is something beyond accountability, because for the second year in a row, the Broncos have to win their last game to make the playoffs.

It would seem as though a team would want all hands on deck, especially two of your top receiving threats.  Marshall and Scheffler have allegedly put themselves above the team, and McDaniels feels the team is more important than winning, which is gutsy and borderline arrogant.

Brandon Marshall has been the team’s biggest offensive weapon this season, and has stayed out of the news for anything not positive.  He set the NFL record for receptions in a game, and is statistically having the greatest season of his young career, and he is doing it injured and knowing that no CBA agreement means he will not be able to test the free agent market.

On the surface, it seems Marshall has put the team before himself.  He has accepted his role, and he has taken advantage of opportunity.  Here is what Marshall had to say about the situation.

“He hadn’t really said anything to me. He just came in today and told me I was deactivated. I have to respect that. That’s the head coach. He makes the decisions around here, and he has to do what’s best for the team.”

“I don’t think coach ever played in the NFL, so for my hamstring to be feeling the way it felt, it’s tough for me to go out there and expect to play at a high level.”

“I played last year with a tear in my hip, so I don’t think my toughness is in question here.”

“When you have a muscle injury, that thing doesn’t heal overnight. I got to do my best to be there for the playoffs.”

“It has nothing to do with accountability.”

Clearly Marshall is unhappy with the situation, and he may have a point, but if what he is doing is enough that McDaniels has suspended him for the final game, there must be more to the story than what is being told.

No one can question Marshall’s toughness.  He misses offseason activities with regularity, but he constantly plays through injury.  Last season, he played with a bad hip and nerve damage in his arm. 

This season, he has battled various injuries to his hamstring, yet he hasn’t missed a single contest.

As for tight end Tony Scheffler, his situation is being characterized as an attitude issue, which comes as virtually no surprise.  Scheffler was vocal about the offseason situation happening in Denver in 2009.

With the deactivations, the Broncos will have to rely on Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, Brandon Lloyd, Daniel Graham, and rookie Richard Quinn.

The Broncos are going to certainly need top tier efforts from all of these players on Sunday if they are going to take down Kansas City and prepare for postseason play.

It certainly would go a long way to erasing this awful start to 2010.

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Last Straw? Brandon Marshall Benched With Playoffs On The Line

As the second decade of the 21st century begins, the Denver Broncos have done a complete 360 degree turn and are right back where they started this past summer.

As training camp commenced last summer, Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall was demanding a trade and head coach Josh McDaniels was forced to suspend Marshall for the most of the preseason due to his antics during practices.

His idiocy started when Marshall “tweaked his hamstring” in a practice. He was then caught on tape punting balls away instead of just handing them off to ball boys like more mature players do.

Now it’s the first day of 2010 and here we go again.  The Broncos playoff hopes are on life support and Marshall once again has been benched by McDaniels.  It was reported earlier in the week that Marshall “tweaked his hamstring” during practice, but it seemed that he would good to go for the season finale against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Instead McDaniels benched his Pro Bowl receiver and made it publicly known that some players playing Sunday have injuries that are worse than Marshall’s. In the situation earlier in the year, most fans stood on McDaniels’ side in how he handled Marshall’s childish behavior.

To quote the great Vince Lombardi, Broncos fans have to be asking “What the hell is going on out there?”

McDaniels and Marshall have once again engaged in a “he said, she said” public debate.  Marshall claims that since McDaniels never played in the NFL, he has no idea what it’s like to play hurt.  The player is watching out for his own health.  Marshall has been on his best behavior all year and should be given the benefit of the doubt here.

McDaniels, meanwhile, has said that this is all about accountability and that the team wants “45 guys on the field on Sun that want to play together,” and that “…anyone that showed indifference to that, we’ll play without them and play well anyway.”

Way to throw some of your players under the bus, coach.  It’s the most arrogant Belichickian statement McDaniels has made all season. In fact, benching his number one receiver for this season finale in which the Broncos still have a chance of making the playoffs is the dumbest move McDaniels has made all year. Herm Edwards needs to remind McDaniels that “YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!”

Now before anyone piles on McDaniels, there is a possibility there is more to this story that the media and fans do not know. McDaniels never shows his hand on these things and we saw a great example of this during the Jay Cutler fiasco last spring. 

It’s possible Marshall did something as stupid as what he did last summer and we just don’t know it. That said, in this age of YouTube, if something did happen we’ll know sooner rather than later.

Until then, Marshall is innocent until proven guilty.  McDaniels needs to produce some better evidence and fast or fans will be calling for his head. What started with whispers after the latest Broncos collapse will turn into screaming is McDaniels made this move without just cause.

Happy New Year Broncos fans.  It looks like 2010 will be a sequel to the soap opera that was 2009.

Oh, joy.

 

 

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Report: Denver Broncos’ Brandon Marshall Benched For Season Finale Vs Chiefs

The Denver Broncos‘ playoff hopes took a huge blow today after head coach Josh McDaniels said receiver Brandon Marshall will not play in the final game of the season.

The Denver Broncos, currently with an 8-7 record, are one of the many teams still alive for an AFC playoff birth.

Starting the season 6-0, the team has lost seven out of the last nine, and needs a win along with help from other teams to enter the postseason.

But McDaniels revealed Marshall—who is believed to have injured his hamstring during practice this week—will not line up against Kansas City, saying “several other players will play Sunday with injuries worse than Marshall’s.”

Marshall and McDaniels had their issues earlier in the season, but improved the relationship when the Broncos got off to the hot start.

With the Broncos now fighting for their playoff lives, they are now in a much tougher position, with Marshall being the most targeted player on the Broncos offense.

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Broncos-Eagles: Why Brian Dawkins Return to Philly Is the Smallest Story

Brian Dawkins was an absolute beast when he played for the Philadelphia Eagles—he covered well, and hit hard enough to blow up any receiver. But above anything else, Dawkins was the unquestioned leader of the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball.

He started his career in Philly, played 13 years there and was named to the Pro Bowl seven times while an Eagle. All his wonderful play led to him not only being one of the most feared safeties in the modern game, but Dawkins also became a huge fan favorite in the City of Brotherly Love (which can show their hate for the Eagles at times).

But really, B. Dawk’s return to Philly is a less significant story line among many good ones in this Christmas weekend game—most notably pending playoff positioning for both teams.

For the Eagles, a win against the Broncos and a Cowboys loss means they would clinch the NFC East and secure a Wild Card round home game. Beyond that, while the Saints (13-1) have basically sewn up home field throughout the playoffs, Philly could still take home field up to the NFC Championship game with two wins and a Minnesota loss.

For the Broncos, the game is more meaningful than that, as Denver must win both their last two games to secure a playoff spot in this year’s muddled AFC. In fact, the Broncos could actually clinch a playoff position with a win and losses by four of the 7-7 teams (JAX, MIA, NYJ, and PIT). Either way though, this game is the biggest of the season for Denver—a definite must-win if they want to make the playoffs this year.

The Broncos are coming off two tough losses in a row that have made their last two must-wins, meaning the playoffs start today if the Broncos want to still be playing in two weeks.

Of course, as the season rolls into Week 15 every team in the NFL is dealing with injuries and that includes the Eagles and Broncos.

Philly will likely be without the services of Michael Vick and safety Quintin Demps, as they are both listed as questionable. But, veteran running back/kick returner Brian Westbrook has been cleared to come back and play for the first time since Nov. 15, even though he will play in a limited role only.

For Denver, wide receiver/kick returner Eddie Royal will miss the contest due to his neck strain, and fullback Spencer Larsen is out as well. Royal has been underutilized in 2009, with only 37 receptions and zero touchdowns, but his 23.9 yards per return will definitely be missed. Fan favorite Peyton Hillis will step in for Larsen, but will still likely not see many chances in the offense since Josh McDaniels uses the fullback almost solely as a blocker.

The last huge storyline of this game is coaching, and there is a massive contrast when these two teams are compared.

The Eagles have one of the best coaches in the NFL leading their team in Andy Reid. Reid’s Eagles own 107 regular season wins with a .611 winning percentage—second best only to Bill Belichick. Reid is the commander of his team, the seasoned vet with five NFC Championship appearances, the fearless leader of a team that has no fear in him.

On the other hand, the Broncos head man is Josh McDaniels in his first year leading a team. McDaniels and Denver went 6-0 to start the season, but only 2-6 since—and most of the onus lies on coaching. In large losses to AFC opponents Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, the offense was mediocre at best and pathetic at worst. Last week against the Raiders, McDaniels had many coaching blunders, multiple mistakes that cost the Broncos valuable points.

If Denver hopes to win this game, and if McDaniels wants to avoid his first losing season in his football life (he told Woody Paige preseason), then he’s got to be on top of his coaching game today.

All in all, the Broncos task of beating a strong NFC team in the Eagles in Philadelphia today is a tough one to say the least, but nothing is impossible in the NFL. Denver can beat the Eagles, and they must to stay afloat in the AFC playoff hunt. One thing’s for sure, all of Denver will tune in to see what happens at 2:15 MT today.  

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Denver Broncos 2010 NFL Mock Draft, Part Five: Denver Looking Offense Early?

After the Broncos‘ loss to the Oakland Raiders, several new weakness have really emerged, namely on the interior of the offensive and defensive lines.

Thanks to former Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler and the Bears, Denver is currently armed with the eighth overall pick, one that could be very attractive to teams who want to move up for an elite level prospect in a very top-heavy draft.

One candidate who could possibly be willing to trade up is the Baltimore Ravens.  Trading up would be completely out of character for the Ravens, as they usually keep their picks or trade down for more.  They consistently build their team through the draft, and often end up taking the best player available when they pick.

This season, their main target in the draft needs to be a premiere wide receiver, and they will not be able to pick one up if they stick with the 21st overall pick.  That is why they should trade up with the Denver Broncos and acquire wide receiver Dez Bryant, who could be the top receiver prospect the Ravens crave.

Here is my projected trade:

Ravens Receive

-Broncos’ first round pick (8th overall)

Broncos Receive

-Ravens’ first round pick (21st overall)

-Ravens’ second round pick (54th overall)

-Ravens’ fifth round pick (150th overall)

It may seem a bit steep for a top ten pick, but the Ravens really seem to be on the verge of being a Super Bowl contender, and an elite wide receiver prospect could vault them to where they need to be.

Meanwhile, the Broncos’ draft slate appears to be much more filled out than it previously was, looking as such:

1. 21st overall (from Baltimore)

2. 54th overall  (from Baltimore)

3. 55th overall

4. 87th overall

5. 134th overall

6. 150th overall (from Baltimore) 

7. 192nd overall

8. 242nd overall

With eight picks, the Broncos can much more easily take advantage of this very deep draft, and they need to start off by going big in the first round.

 

1.  First Round, 21st overall (from Baltimore):  Mike Iupati, Guard, Idaho

6’6″ 330 lbs.

Iupati is a very hot prospect right now.  He has very imposing size and would fill an enormous void on the interior of Denver’s offensive line at left guard. 

For a long time, I have been defending former Iowa guard/tackle and current Broncos reserve Seth Olsen as the player to be the heir apparent at left guard, but the Broncos would be wise to take Iupati and hope Olsen can be the future at the center position or added depth at tackle and guard.

Iupati is an elite level guard prospect, and the Broncos can get him for a relative bargain.  He would provide Denver with great size on the interior, and would be the fourth piece out of five in what could potentially be the most talented young offensive line in the NFL with Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Chris Kuper, and Iupati.

Denver has really struggled to run the ball consistently and their interior pass protection has been marginal at best, though Kyle Orton doesn’t always do the greatest job of escaping the pressure.  Iupati would greatly help Denver’s pass protection, and would give Ryan Clady the help he needs at the left tackle position to succeed.

 

2.  Second Round, 54th overall:  Demaryius Thomas, Wide Receiver, Georgia Tech

6’3″ 230 pounds

This might seem a bit off the wall for Denver, who already have one of the deepest and most talented receiving cores in the NFL, but this would be a very, very smart pick.

Besides the fact that Thomas would likely be a first round pick if he had a quarterback who could get him the ball better, he fits a lot of different roles that Denver would like to have filled.

First of all, the Broncos lack a true deep threat opposite Brandon Marshall.  Certainly Eddie Royal has excellent speed, but his skills would best be used from the slot as many Denver fans anticipated.  Thomas has excellent speed, and could sneak into the first round based on his measurables alone.

Also, Thomas would take a lot of pressure off of the Broncos’ other receivers.  Though Brandon Marshall has seemingly been the only wideout on quarterback Kyle Orton’s radar all season long, another big play receiver could really free up Marshall on the opposite side and Royal in the middle.

Thomas would also be a solid developmental prospect in case Brandon Marshall bolts in a couple of years.

 

3.  Second Round, 55th overall:  Toby Gerhart, Running Back, Stanford

6’2″ 240

Not a big shocker here.  As I mentioned in the early stages of the reasoning for Mike Iupati, the Broncos have really struggled running the ball, largely due to their lack of depth (or use of it in the case of Peyton Hillis). 

While many believe Peyton Hillis is the obvious answer for the Broncos as the team’s power back, head coach Josh McDaniels has refused to use him this season for whatever reason, and he is simply being wasted.  Sadly, Hillis could be traded or released come this offseason if the team doesn’t find a better use for him, though now that he has not played much, his value may be diminished.

All of that being said, Toby Gerhart would be the perfect fit for the Broncos as a power back.  The Broncos have really struggled with short yardage plays, and the additions of Gerhart and Iupati could potentially erase those struggles.

 

4.  Third Round, 87th overall:  Myron Lewis, Cornerback, Vanderbilt

6’2″ 204

Lewis is a relatively little known prospect but he has very good measurables and has proven to be a very durable, versatile player in his football career. 

He has had nine interceptions the last two seasons, and was named second team All-SEC in 2009.  His size makes him a very attractive prospect for the next level, especially because of his ability to help in the running game as an effective tackler.

His size helps him bat down balls much more frequently than many other cornerbacks, though his speed at times is somewhat of a liability.  He is slightly faster than average and reminds me a lot of Charles Tillman of the Chicago Bears.

 

5.  Fourth Round, 134th overall:  Micah Johnson, Middle Linebacker, Kentucky

6’2″ 258 lbs.

The Broncos could very easily look to this position much earlier in the draft, but Johnson is great value here.  He is a mammoth against the run, and almost fits the exact same mold as current Denver linebacker Andra Davis.  He is not so much fast as he is quick, but he is very versatile.

Johnson is close to a liability in pass coverage, but he can stay in on passing downs to rush the passer, an area he excels in.  Some scouts believe him to be best fit as a pass rusher or strong side linebacker in the 3-4 defensive scheme.

 

6.  Fifth Round, 150th overall:  John Skelton, Quarterback, Fordham

6’5″ 258 lbs.

Skelton is a very intriguing prospect to me.  I recently found out about him, and was extremely impressed.  He is quickly becoming one of the more popular prospects in the draft, and according to other reports, the Broncos have been scouting this kid since August.

They have been watching him this whole season, and for good reason.  Skelton is a physical marvel and has all of the tools to succeed at the NFL level.  With proper coaching, which he would receive in Denver, he could wind up being one of the bigger steals in the draft.  He has great footwork, escape-ability, and good zip on short range passes.  He throws a nice deep ball and can make any and every NFL throw.

Watch for this kid on draft day, he is an intriguing prospect.

 

7.  Sixth Round, 192nd overall:  Anthony Moeaki, Tight End, Iowa

6’3″ 247 lbs.

As I have said in previous mock drafts, I think the Broncos are going to have a tough time passing on the versatility of Moeaki, especially because they could lose Tony Scheffler at the end of the season.

Moeaki has been oft-injured in his time at Iowa, but he is one of the better players to come through Iowa City this decade.  He will likely fall in the draft due to his injury plagued career, but he is an excellent blocker in addition to being a good pass receiver.

He has good vision after the catch, but his speed is average.  He could be a nice find for some team late in the draft.

 

8.  Seventh Round, 242nd overall:  Erik Cook, Offensive Lineman, New Mexico

6’6″ 315 lbs.

Cook adds quality depth and versatility to the Broncos’ offensive line.  He is a very underrated prospect who could be the sleeper to fill the Broncos’ void at center for the future.

He has experience in college at tackle, guard, and center, and could really provide the Broncos with some quality depth if injuries occur throughout the season.

 

There may be questions as to why I have not included the defensive line in this particular segment.  I believe the Broncos will address the defensive line with the deep free agent class of 2010.  The defensive lineman available in 2010 are fairly deep, though it is very heavy on the top end and it lacks a lot of true 3-4 fits other than Terrence Cody as a nose tackle.

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Oh, Peyton Hillis, Where Have You Gone?

Josh McDaniels lied.

He said in the off-season that he would utilize any of Mike Shanahan’s holdover offensive talent, and that anyone that had the ability to help the team would be used in his offense.

True, after the Denver Broncos started the season 6-0, there wasn’t much one could argue with McDaniels over. The defense was playing at a phenomenal level, the offense was doing what it had to do, and the Broncos were taking the league by storm.

But a 2-5 record since has changed the tune a bit in Denver. And after experiencing a tale of two seasons after 15 weeks, this writer is finally ready to unleash on McDaniels and any Denver fans that have been unwilling to come forward and say what needs to be said:

Where the hell is Peyton Hillis , and why hasn’t he been involved in this offense?

Granted, the Broncos realized a flaw in their roster after last year’s on-going list of injuries to the running back position left them depleted and scratching at free agency for talent, but with solid players returning for the 2009 season still on the roster, McDaniels did a complete overhaul, originally bringing in J.J. Arrington, Lamont Jordan, Correll Buckhalter, and drafting Georgia running back, Knowshon Moreno.

It begs the question; where’s the room for that white guy who kicked some serious ass at tailback last year?

Hillis took the league by storm in 2008, rushing for 329 yards and five touchdowns in a five-game span towards the end of last season, and even ran for 129 yards against the New York Jets, one of last season’s top run defenses.

He averaged five yards per carry, topped 4.4 yards per carry in four straight games, and was even an asset as a receiver. A bit more than just an asset if you watch the tape and look at the numbers, as Hillis was able to haul in seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in a game against the Miami Dolphins before he was called to duty as an emergency tailback.

However, we know where the story goes from here. Hillis tore his hamstring in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs, and his season was over.

Still, even with all the running back additions, fans and writers alike questioned the rookie coach all off-season on what Hillis’s role would be, and how often he’d be used. McDaniels claimed that Hillis would have a decent role, as he is a versatile and talented player, yet McDaniels seemed unwilling to switch his position, and opted to keep him at fullback.

When McDaniels was questioned on why he wasn’t using Hillis more, he simply referenced the current rushing attack, and said he wasn’t needed .

He even made the weak excuse that he wasn’t being used in short yardage situations because fullback Spencer Larsen was injured, even though it was only for one week, and doesn’t explain Hillis’s lack of offensive duties for the other 12 games.

While Hillis is still technically listed at running back on some depth charts across the web, he’s still primarily playing the role of a fullback, and for the most part in 2009, hasn’t really played a role at all.

When finally given a chance as a ball carrier for the first time in nine weeks, Hillis took seven attempts for 47 yards (6.7 yards per carry) against the Chiefs two weeks ago.

This isn’t an open announcement that Hillis should be starting over Knowshon Moreno and/or Correll Buckhalter. It’s not a promotion for him to switch positions. It’s not even a deliberate attack on Josh McDaniels or the Denver Broncos.

What it is, though, is a friendly reminder that the Broncos have a very versatile and talented player wasting away on their team. And if they don’t want to use him, they should send him somewhere where someone will.

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Josh McDaniels: Great Coach, Questionable Game-Time Decisions

Game 13 in the NFL.

It’s an away game in perhaps the most savvy stadium environment in the NFL.

The crowd is hushed when the home team has the ball, up against a team looking to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Against a team boasting the best quarterback in the league; a quarter back that opposing coaches fear so much, they are willing to go for a 4th down conversions on their own 40, just to keep the ball out of his hands.

After winning the coin toss, the election is to give Peyton Manning the ball to start the game.

Later, with Indianapolis stuffing Knowshon Moreno time and again on short yardage, he is once again handed the rock and asked to run into a brick wall.

The problem with some two-bit amateur commentator, (such as myself) bringing up such issues is that often all the great things Josh McDaniels has done get tossed to the side.

Let me be clear; Josh McDaniels is a great coach, if not an elite one. He rebuilt one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and turned it into a top 5 one this year.

Initially he was criticized heavily for his methodology. No big name defensive linemen taken in the draft? A washed up Dawkins is going to anchor the secondary?

The offensive is steady, safe, and sometimes explosive. It’s not spectacular, but there is always that feeling the this offense can take off at any moment. It gets the job done for the most part. People said that without Cutler, Brandon Marshall would just fade away, and yet, on Sunday Marshall and Orton combined to set a new NFL record.

But when the casual observer can see the obvious, one begins to wonder exactly what it is the coach is seeing.

McDaniels explained the decision to give Manning the ball right out of the gate this way; The plan was for the Broncos to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, score, and then have the ball at the beginning of the third quarter, and score again. In addition, giving Indy the ball to start the game and then stopping them with a 3 and out would have been a huge psychological boost for the Broncos, and a humbling set back for the Colts.

Of course things didn’t work out that way.

Listening to McDaniels explain his decisions provides quite a bit of insight into his psyche.

The first thing that strikes me is; the man does not believe in random happenings. Anyone who believes he can make a precise blue print for his team to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, is thinking in the realm of formula and equations.

It’s apparent that McDaniels sees the game as a mathematical problem, and solving it is only a matter of crunching the right numbers and sticking to the formula.

It’s interesting to note that McDaniels was a math major in college, and his understanding that deferring the ball at the beginning of the game can be of benefit, statistically, can not be overlooked.

The downside to this kind of mindset is that it can lead to dogmatic and rigid thinking.

Yes, theoretically, deferring would give the Broncos two extra possessions, and lo’ and behold, it almost worked—except the Broncos went ultra-conservative as the half winded down.

Imagine that what you see unfolding on the field is literally Josh McDaniel’s mind at work; calculating theories and computing probabilities.

In all that mathematical mojo, McDaniels over-calculated and tried to slow things down and burn time off the clock, postulating a steady march ending in a Broncos score with 2 seconds left in the half.

Instead, the team bogged down, and gave the ball back to Manning.

The math was off.

The theory works, the statistics hold up, until you throw in reality.  Before you know it, you’re down 21-0.

This Monday morning coach understands the logic, but still thinks it was a bad idea. It was an example of McDaniels thinking too much. It was also an example of how self-assured—perhaps even cocky—he is about this team.

It’s important to note that last year McDaniel’s Sensei, Bill Belichick, was one of the first coaches to laud deferring the opening kick-off at the NFL level.

What about Knowshon Moreno being sent time and again into a defensive line that was stuffing him at each and every turn?

Moreno, for all his positives, is not a short-yardage-obvious-running-play kind of back. The Bronocs have such a back, a bruiser, in Peyton Hillis. Where was he?

McDaniels, in the post game press conference, explained that since blocking back Spender Larsen was injured early in the game, Hillis had to fulfill the role of a blocking back.

It makes logical sense. Buckhalter also went down with an injury. Lamont Jordan was inactive for the game. That literally left only two backs on the field: Moreno and Hillis.

Hillis is the better short yardage back. He apparently is also the better blocking back. It seems, when McDaniels weighed his options, he picked the lesser of two evils: Hillis will block, Moreno will run. Rigid thinking? Maybe. In hindsight, if this was the given situation, why was Hillis not blocking for Moreno as the seconds ticked down at the end of the first half. For five straight plays – even in short yardage – the Denver Broncos power back Hillis was no where to be seen. The rock was given to Moreno, with the clock winding down, and no blocking fullback was in sight. Might the ball have been handed to a bigger, stronger, and more mucking “down-hill” runner for better effect? Perhaps.

Still, let us consider some other issues that effect short yardage situations.

As play calling goes, the Broncos rarely go to play action and put Orton in roll out opportunities even less. Both of these issues, along with quarterbacking from shotgun, make short yardage running plays stand out and much more obvious and defensible.

This is also an offense that leans heavily toward a conservative philosophy.

We saw the results Sunday, as the Colts defense lined up and tee’d off on Moreno mercilessly. It’s a predictable outcome to a predictable offensive scheme. 

Also consider the Offensive Line this year.  There are injuries and demotions going on. Though the line coach is the same as last year, the scheme has changed some.

Statistically the team is below average in 3rd-and-short situations, and near last on 4th-and-short.

It’s not mentioned much, but the O-line is not the same this year.

Something is missing. 

So it just doesn’t boil down to one thing; not the decision to run the smaller back into a staunch defensive line, the sputtering short yardage offensive line play, nor the surprisingly predictable and conservative scheme of the offense.

McDaniels is a rookie head coach. Sometimes we forget that. He’s destined to be one of the elites someday. As he has shown a few times this year however, some of his play calling and game time decisions aren’t fully matured yet.

There is a time and a place for “statistics”.

There is a time and a place to punch the other team in the mouth with power running and vertical plays.

McDaniels is still learning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL Playoffs Left in Question Following Big Weekend

 

All Denver and Jacksonville had to do was win to become virtual (though not mathematical) locks to secure the AFC wildcards.  In the NFC the Cowboys and Giants could solidified the NFC race with wins, yet instead watched Philadelphia leapfrog ahead to the division lead while the Cowboys and Giants appear to be fighting for that sixth seed now.

In a weekend that could have been filled with coffin nails, hope survived just a little longer for several teams who won while those ahead of them largely fell.  Now teams thought long out of the playoffs still see a glimmer of hope.  In the AFC especially, 9-7 may just end up edging into the playoffs.

Miami defeating Jacksonville held the most blatant impact.  With a win Jacksonville would be 8-5 and hold a solid lead with a pair of difficult games upcoming.  Facing New England and Indianapolis, the 7-6 Jaguars could easily see an 8-8 finish after a 7-5 start.

 Miami meanwhile kept its hopes alive by ascending above .500 for the first time all year.  Facing the Titans, Texans, and Steelers, they have a much greater chance of running the table and finishing 10-6.  Their big playoff question will come down to week 16 when Jacksonville plays New England.  If a struggling Patriots team manages a loss, Miami may just be able to squeak into that divisional seed.  If Jacksonville drops that game, Miami will be in a great position for the sixth and final playoff berth.

Baltimore finally assumed the role of ‘other AFC North team’, which had been given to Pittsburgh by default ever since Cincinnati assumed sole possession of the division.  They have failed to string together consecutive victories since the 3-0 start against San Diego, but have a great opportunity to break that trend with Chicago, Oakland, and Pittsburgh remaining on the schedule.

The mostly disappointing Jets and temporarily deflated Titans have also watched playoff hopes continue.  The New York Jets dipped above .500 for the first time since week five (which was ironically a loss to the aforementioned Dolphins).  At 7-6 they occupy a four-way tie for that sixth seed with the Jaguars and Dolphins.

Facing two playoff teams (Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals) and one desperate to stay alive in the playoff hunt (Atlanta Falcons), the Jets schedule is the toughest by far of the wildcard hopefuls.  They will need the Colts to give Manning and company a lot of rest week 16 to hope for a 2-1 record and a 9-7 wildcard.

The Tennessee Titans were considered eliminated for all practicality after falling to Indianapolis last week.  The unfortunate scheduling bump in the road against an undefeated Colts team following a string of five straight victories dropped the team to 5-7. 

At the time it was thought even an undefeated run and a 9-7 record would come up short.  Instead they just might be able to squeeze out the last spot thanks to several tough games for those 7-6 teams.  Next week’s direct battle with Miami may just decide who holds onto that final seed.

So who will grab that AFC wildcard?  It will likely come down to Miami versus Baltimore.  The Ravens and Dolphins fight will likely come down to a tie-breaker between the two 10-6 teams.  Both would have the same conference records in that scenario, which means a tie-breaker involving the ‘best win-loss percentage among common games’. 

Competition is much less bunched together in the NFC.  Assuming the Packers maintain their fifth seeding, three teams are vying for that sixth and final seed (four should San Francisco upset Arizona tonight).  Atlanta (who would share 6-7 with San Francisco), Dallas (having just dropped behind the Eagles in the division and stand at 8-4), and the New York Giants (hoping the Cowboys continue their December ways while sitting a game back at 7-6).

Dallas currently holds lone possession of that sixth seed, and is even still fighting for the division after dipping a single game below Philadelphia.  They do face a difficult remaining schedule, playing the New Orleans Saints, much improved Washington Redskins, and finish the year head-to-head with the Philadelphia Eagles.

 It is highly likely Dallas plays out the season to t tune of a 1-2 finish that lands them at 9-7.  This would require a lot of help to get them into the postseason.  If Washington can play as they have the last few weeks, a 2008 Broncos emulating 8-8 finish is not unheard of.

The New York Giants may find themselves cheering on Philadelphia just after losing to them in a 45-38 shootout.  One game back of Dallas and still trying to regain form after a torrid start to the year, the Eagles topping Dallas in week 17 might very well be the game that puts New York into the playoffs. 

The Giants play two winnable games against the Redskins and Panthers, followed by a season-closing tough matchup with Minnesota.  New York will likely have to hope the Vikings, having secured the second seed, will take a note from the Indianapolis Colts and give their starters significant rest in that final game.

The troubles in Dallas and New York provide Atlanta some hope despite another loss.  At 6-7 and suffering from a multitude of injuries, they have to hope they can get hot while Dallas and New York continue their late season difficulties. 

The Jets, Bills, and Buccaneers all constitute winnable games.  They should be able to finish 9-7.  Unfortunately their fate is more in the hands of the Cowboys and Giants, and how those teams respond to difficult final schedules.

Ultimately the NFC’s sixth seed might very well back into the playoffs; all major competitors to that final seed are witnessing difficult stretches, going a combined 5-10 in the last five games.  Whichever one can break the trend first should be able to secure the final wildcard.  At this juncture it would appear Dallas’ mid-season surge should be enough to hang on for that last playoff berth.

Instead of discussing how the playoff matches are beginning to shape up, this week continued to shake things up and continue the debate over just who will make those playoffs.  Teams on life support continued to breathe while others looking for solid ground found quicksand.  Judging by play and final schedules it would appear Dallas and Baltimore should be the teams to grab those sixth seeds, but the truth will probably be in doubt through the final weekend of regular season play.

 

To see just how some playoff standards have dipped below expectations to open room for these teams see:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/306652-why-the-mighty-hath-fallen-a-look-at-major-nfl-declines-in-2009

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

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