Spread ‘Em: Week 13 NFL Picks

The NFL is in its home stretch. It’s the final five weeks of the season and teams still alive for a playoff spot will see their season change for better or worse.

Following my worst week of the season (6-10) last week, hopefully Thursday’s win will serve as a springboard.

Remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only. Here’s the rest of week 13:

 

Denver (-4.5) over Kansas City

At this time of year, with bye weeks now in everyone’s rear-view mirrors, playing on Sunday following a Thursday night game is the closest thing a team will get to having an extra week off.

Traditionally, Denver is brutal at Kansas City in the month of December, and the Chiefs have played better recently—with the exception of their game against the Chargers last week. This could be a prime example of a “trap game.”

However, take the bait and the Broncos. They have playoffs on their minds, they’re rested, they’re running the football with renewed vigor, and they’re simply the better football team.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 13

 

New England (-5) over Miami

Given their road woes this season, it was surprising to see the Patriots favored by five points. All four losses this season have come away from Gillette Stadium.

Following the rout in New Orleans in Week 12, a loss that pushed their road record to 0-4 in the continental U.S., the Patriots recognize they need a win—and a convincing one—in Miami, for two reasons.

First and foremost, a loss to the Dolphins puts the Pats at 7-5, giving the Dolphins and Jets belief that they have a shot at the AFC East.

Secondly, a big road win against a division rival restores confidence and gives New England good reason to believe they can win the rest of their games—a run which would give them an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 2 seed.

The Patriots are due. They’re better than they’ve shown in road games, and at this time of year in season’s past, they’ve played their best football. It won’t be different in 2009.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 17

 

Pittsburgh (-13) over Oakland

Like the Broncos, the Raiders have had a little extra time off, thanks to their Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas. Initially, the thinking was that the Raiders would be competitive due to the rest and the uncertainty regarding Ben Roethlisberger.

However, after some thought, the Steelers can win this game by two touchdowns with Dennis Dixon under center—that is, if Mike Tomlin and the Steelers decided to rest Roethlisberger another week.

With Oakland allowing something in the neighborhood of 160 yards per game on the ground, the Steelers should be able to run the ball capably and dominate the Raiders.

Plus, if motivation means anything, the Steelers have lost three games in a row—the last two in overtime—and they need a win to improve their playoff hopes.

Steelers 28, Raiders 10

 

Jacksonville (pick ‘em) over Houston

Last week’s deflating loss to the Colts effectively ended any chance the Texans had of making the playoffs. According to most “in the know,” it also marked the beginning of the end of the Gary Kubiak Era in Houston as well.

The Texans struggle to defend the run, and the Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars don’t defend the pass well, while Houston thrives on using the air attack to moving the ball offensively.

So long as Jaguars’ QB David Garrard can complete a few passes to keep Houston’s defense honest, the Jags should be able to control the ball and keep the Houston offense off the field, giving them the edge in this one.

Jaguars 24, Texans 21

 

Tennessee (+7) over Indianapolis

Peyton Manning should feast on the Titans’ pass defense, as he did earlier this season (309 yards and 3 touchdowns). The Colts are capable of striking early, and the Titans would probably have a tough time playing catch-up.

However, these Titans are different from the ones that were blown out by the Colts earlier this season. The main differences are at quarterback and running back.

Vince Young has taken over under center and completed nearly 63 per cent of his passes, well above his career average (58 per cent). He seems poised and offers more versatility at the QB position than Kerry Collins.

At running back, Chris Johnson is no longer splitting carries with LenDale White. During Tennessee’s five-game winning streak, the 18 carries he had last week against Arizona was his lowest total. He had averaged 26 carries per game in the previous four victories.

This is a winnable game for the Titans. More importantly, they need to win in order to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. For the Colts, reaching 12-0 and 21 straight wins in the regular season—tying an NFL record—would be important milestones.

It would be nice to see the Titans win. More likely, though, Manning has a huge game, and the Colts survive a 130-yard effort from Johnson to win a close one at home.

Colts 27, Titans 24

 

Philadelphia (-5.5) over Atlanta

With Matt Ryan and Michael Turner dinged up, the Falcons turn to their understudies—QB Chris Redman and RBs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling) to salvage their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, the home crowd will be riled up for an appearance from former franchise quarterback Michael Vick.

Those storylines aside, the Eagles are better defensively and have highly-skilled, big-play receivers on offense that should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points against an Atlanta defense that isn’t good.

Eagles 31, Falcons 17

 

Cincinnati (-13) over Detroit

Cincinnati’s pass defense is very good, led by the under-publicized Leon Hall at corner back.

Should Calvin Johnson play for the Lions, Hall will get the nod to start opposite him. He should quietly limit Johnson to one of his worst games of the season.

Cincinnati’s run-based offense should thrive against the Lions, who can’t seem to stop anyone on the ground or in the passing game. Expect big days for all of the Bengals’ skill players as they attempt to cement their status as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

It sounds preposterous with the Bengals as a potential No. 2 seed, but it’s the reality of the NFL in 2009.

Bengals 31, Lions 10

 

Washington (+9.5) over New Orleans

First, let’s get the obvious out the way: the Saints are clearly the better team in this matchup.

However, the Redskins’ defense is very good against the pass, and it could potentially negate the Saints’ strength on offense.

Up front, the Redskins are not as strong defensively against the run, and the Saints’ group of running backs should be able to pound the ball and control the time of possession—if it gets done to it.

The matchups seem to lead to a closer game than many would expect. Factor in the point that the Saints are coming off an emotional home win, they have a slightly shorter week to prepare, and they travel to Washington. This could be a trap game for the Saints.

Take the Redskins outright. At the very least, they should cover.

Redskins 24, Saints 21

 

Tampa Bay (+6) over Carolina

Believe it or not, the Buccaneers enter this game with the more stable quarterback situation. Nobody has faith in Jake Delhomme, besides his receiver Steve Smith, and neither should Carolina at this point.

Still, the Panthers’ offense is based in large part on their strong running game, and the Buccaneers struggle to defend the run.

Whether Delhomme starts or the Panthers turn to backup Matt Moore, Carolina’s running backs will have to do much of the work, and the Buccaneers should be able to load up the line of scrimmage to stop the run.

The Panthers’ passing game can’t make enough plays to prevent the Bucs from keying in on the run. The Panthers’ defense isn’t what it used to be either.

Buccaneers 20, Panthers 13

 

St. Louis (+9) over Chicago

The Rams could be just what the doctor ordered for the struggling Bears. However, with the Bears struggling both offensively and defensively, they’ll be locked in a tight game with the Rams.

The bottom line is that the Bears have to play mistake-free football to cover this spread—something they are capable of right now. Talent-wise, they should win. If the Rams are forced into a few turnovers, the Bears will win easily.

The Rams’ Stephen Jackson will be heavily utilized against the Bears, and rightfully so. If he has a big game, the Rams have a chance to win this game outright.

Bears 24, Rams 20

 

San Diego (-13) over Cleveland

Does this one even need explaining? It was a surprise to see this spread under two touchdowns.

Chargers 37, Browns 13

San Francisco (pick ’em) over Seattle

The 49ers still have a shot at a playoff berth, and their offense has some emerging talent. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have struggled lately on both sides of the ball.

One thing working in the Seahawks’ favor is that they haven’t played a home game in nearly a month; their last three games have come away from Qwest Field. They tend to play significantly better at home.

Still, the 49ers’ desperation to win and stay in the NFC West and wildcard races will be the deciding factor in what should be a close game.

49ers 20, Seahawks 17

 

NY Giants (+2) over Dallas

Both teams enter this game having last played on Thanksgiving, so they’ve both enjoyed a longer break between games.

The Giants have seemingly lost the ability to run the ball. Their quarterback is playing through the effects of plantar fascilitis. Their defense is struggling. It’s no wonder the Giants have lost five of their last six.

Yet, despite these issues, they are desperate and will be playing at home, which might help them rediscover some of what made them successful in the last couple seasons rushing the passer and pounding the football on the ground.

Simultaneously, a Giants win will cast doubt on whether or not the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Dallas’ struggles in the month of December with Tony Romo as quarterback are well-known, and a loss in this game will only reignite that doubt.

Giants 24, Cowboys 21

 

Minnesota (-3) over Arizona

Many believe the Vikings are the best team in football—certainly among the best. If the Cardinals were to beat Minnesota, they’d need to be at full strength, meaning that Kurt Warner would play and play well.

Given that Warner sat out last week and is a game-time decision this week, you have to question his ability to have the kind of game necessary to keep the Cardinals competitive against Brett Favre and the Vikings’ explosive offense.

Regardless of whether Warner plays, or how effective he might be if plays, the key matchup will be Arizona’s run defense against Adrian Peterson. Arizona’s run defense had a great start to the season, but has struggled in recent games.

If the Cardinals can limit Peterson, their chances or covering the spread or winning improves significantly. If they can’t slow Peterson down, the Vikings will win easily, no matter who is under center for Arizona.

Vikings 27, Cardinals 17

 

Monday Night

Baltimore (+3) over Green Bay

Oh sure, the Ravens’ defense isn’t what it once was. In fact, statistically speaking, the Packers are better than the Ravens defensively.

However, Baltimore’s five losses this season have all come against teams in the playoff picture in their respective conferences (New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati twice). Is it possible the Ravens are underrated?

That isn’t to say the Packers are overrated. Three of their four losses have also come to playoff-type teams (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati). But Aaron Rodgers is playing Pro Bowl-caliber football.

The Ravens should be favored in this one. They still have some big performers on defense, even if the unit as a whole seems to be in decline. A big game on a big stage is where Ray Lewis shines, and it’s likely he’ll make a few big plays to turn the tide in a close Baltimore win.

Ravens 17, Packers 13

 

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Week 13: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick ’em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (12), I was a solid if unspectacular 114-46, good for a 72.5 percent accuracy rate.

Last season was my personal best of right at 80%. This year, I’m looking to improve upon that, but these 10-6 weeks are killing me, and I gotta get at least 11 wins this week! Maybe I should pick Denver huh?

This week, there is only one game on Thursday, as opposed to last week when there were 3. Which leads me to mentioning that I hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving with your families and friends! I know I did, however, I do what I always say I won’t, and that’s over eat to the point of being miserable! Damn Pumpkin Pie……

Anyway, this week’s Thursday night game pits the New York Jets at Buffalo in what’s sure to be a barn burner…..

the good news is that there are some decent games this week, nothing really great, but some decent games aside from the dud on Thursday. As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight-up winner.

Record:

Record from Two Weeks Previous (11): 11-4

Record from Last Week (12): 10-6

Record coming into Week 13: 124 – 52 (70.4 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let’s get right to it!

Begin Slideshow

Week 12: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick ’em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (eleven), I was a solid if unspectacular 103-42, good for a 70.6 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of 80 percent. This year, I’m looking to improve upon that.

Last week I actually didn’t have time to do the article as work requirements kept me away, however I did pick in my local pool and I ended up 11-4 for the week and my picks here never vary from those. I missed the Pittsburgh vs. Chiefs game, as I picked the Steelers. I missed the Falcons/Giants game, as I thought Matty Ice would be solid against the G-Men. I missed the Cincy/Oakland game, as basically everyone else did….who’d have though hat game would play out like that? And finally, I also missed the Houston/Tennessee game last night as I though Schaub would have a monster night.

This week, there are 3 games on Thursday, which means plenty of time to gorge yourself and ample opportunities to watch some pigskin! You’ve got Green Bay @ Detroit on Fox, Oakland @ Dallas on CBS and of course the G-Men @ Denver on Thursday Night Football on NFL network.

There are some good games and intriguing matchups on the slate for this week. As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight up winner.

Record:

Record from Two Weeks Previous (10): 10-5

Record from Last Week (11): 11-4

Record coming into Week (12): 114 – 46 (72.5 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let’s get right to it!

Begin Slideshow

Week 10: NFL Picks & Predictions

I pick ’em every week and have for years. This season, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last week (9), I was a solid if unspectacular 82-35, good for a 70.0 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of 80 percent. This year, I’m looking to improve that!

Over the last two weeks, I’ve been good, going 21-5 and I finished Week 9 with a solid 11-2 record, not bad by my standards.

This week marks the first week of Thursday Night Football on NFL network when the Bears travel to San Fran., and I’m hoping that I don’t have to hear any more of Gumble than necessary…..

It’s a new week, so let’s get on with it!

As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks; I’m picking the straight up winner.

Record

Record from Two Weeks Previous (8): 10-3

Record from Last Week (9): 11-2

Record coming into Week (10): 93-37 (71.5 percent)

Now that the records are out of the way, let’s get right to it!

Begin Slideshow

Week 7: NFL Picks & Predictions

As most of you know, I pick em’ every week and have for years, I’ve been doing most of my picks right here on bleacherreport.com and also over at my site at www.sports-uncut.com.

Going into last Week (6) I was a solid, if unspectacular 54-22, good for a 71.05 percent accuracy rate. Last season was my personal best of right at 80 percent, this year, I’m looking to improve that! It’s slowly getting better and better!

I finished Week 6 with an average 9-5 record, not great….but, not bad either. My percentage did dip from 71, but only by one point. The Philly v Oakland game came out of left field! Regardless, this week, I’m looking to improve upon that performance greatly!

As always, I’m not picking the spread here folks, I’m picking the straight up winner. So, let’s get to it!

Record:

Record from 2 Weeks Previous (5): 11-3

Record from last Week (6): 9-5

Record coming into Week (7): 63-27 (70.0 percent)

So, let’s get right to it!

Begin Slideshow

The Ledger: NFL Week Six Picks Review

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Week 5: NFL Picks & Predictions

Last season, I finished the year right below 80% on my picks. My picks were solid all year, and earned me mention on some the biggest sports bettors in the world websites, including Brandon Lang and J.R. Miller among others.

Now, I don’t pick against the spread, I pick the straight up winners. So, keep that in mind as you look at all of these.

This has been a topsy-turvy season thus far, and I’m slowly coming out of that wicked bad early season slump caused by Week 2’s picks, and hope to get to 12 wins this week, same as last week.

Record from Previous Week (4): 12-2

Record coming into Week (5): 43-19 (69.35%)

Overall record: 43-19

Let’s get it on!

Begin Slideshow

Spread ‘Em: NFL Week Five Picks

I was back on track last week, going 9-5 in the games played. It would be nice to have back-to-back strong showings to build on my 37-25 record on the season.

As always, I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…I do what I can with what I’ve been blessed with.

Here now are the week five picks, with the home team in bold. Picks are for entertainment purposes only, of course.

Minnesota (-10) over St. Louis

A small part of me wanted to pick the Rams in this one. There will be a natural letdown from Brett Favre and his teammates because they won’t be pitted against the Green Bay Packers this week. Additionally, the Vikings played their last game on Monday Night Football at home, giving them a short week to prepare and travel.

Upon further review though, the Rams have scored 24 points on the season, and have been outscored through the first four weeks by a combined 84 points. They’ve been shutout twice already and, given the quality of their opponent this week, could be in for another blowout loss.

Vikings, 31-6

Dallas (-8.5) over Kansas City

After getting outmuscled and outplayed in Denver last week, the Cowboys move on to Arrowhead Stadium, another tough venue for a visiting team to play in. However, the Chiefs are not talented enough to challenge the Cowboys. Dallas will likely have Marion Barber closer to full strength in this game, which should allow the Cowboys to grind out a large chunk of yards on the ground, putting Tony Romo in more favorable passing situations.

I would not be stunned to see the Chiefs keep this game close; there is talent on Kansas City that is developing and improving. The Cowboys should come into this game looking to atone for last week though, and they may put this one away early.

Cowboys, 27-13

Carolina (-3.5) over Washington

I was torn in making a pick for this game. The Redskins were recently placed on my “Do Not Bet On” list, based on their poor performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week four. Carolina, thanks to their turnover-prone QB Jake Delhomme, has not proven to be a safe pick this year either.

Ultimately, I am taking Carolina because the Panthers have two things working in their favor:

1) They come off the bye week, which means they had extra time to prepare.

2) They are playing the Worst 2-2 Team In NFL History, the 2009 Redskins.

When I write that I rely on age-old gambling trends, I don’t joke: teams that host games following their bye week usually cover the spread. Hello Carolina!

Panthers, 24-14

Philadelphia (-15) over Tampa Bay

This game feels like a high school homecoming game. Remember the homecoming game? The home team almost always scheduled a doormat for homecoming so that they could have a guaranteed win on the schedule for all the alumni to enjoy.

There’s more to this pick than the whole “homecoming game” vibe. The Eagles will benefit from coming off the bye week and hosting this game. They will be well-rested. Donovan McNabb will play, and Brian Westbrook will be the healthiest he’s been all year.

Picking a team that’s favored by 15 points though, whether they are home or away, means the bettor has absolutely no faith in the ability of the underdog to cover the spread. That’s exactly how I feel about the Buccaneers, who have yet to show they can stop the run, stop the pass, or move the ball effectively to build sustained drives on offense.

Eagles, 34-9

NY Giants (-15.5) over Oakland

The over/under on men doing yard work during the early games on the NFL schedule this week is 45 million. I’m taking the over. Man, there are some ugly games on the docket.

I digress…

My only fear about picking the Giants is that I do so without knowing that Eli Manning will play. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants held Manning out of this one and used David Carr as the quarterback, knowing that they can win regardless of who’s under center. Of course, for the sake of the spread, and my pick, I’m rooting for Eli to play. Otherwise, this may be a wasted pick. It’s a risk I’m willing to take though.

Giants, 31-10

Cleveland (+6) over Buffalo

The Browns nearly pulled off an upset over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, and may pull off the feat this week in Buffalo, thanks in large part to the Braylon Edwards deal.

Oh, don’t get me wrong: Edwards was the Browns’ most talented offensive player. However, I found it odd last week when he didn’t catch a single ball last week from Derek Anderson, a quarterback that had developed a strong rapport with on the field. Then, Edwards wound up on the police blotter and, about 24 hours later, he wound up in a Jets uniform via trade. It’s enough to make one wonder if the Browns’ front office should apply for a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records in the category of “Fastest Disassociation with Soon-to-Be Suspended Receiver in NFL History.”

Free of the burden of Braylon Edwards now, perhaps the Browns march into Orchard Park, NY, and surprise the Bills. Addition by subtraction? When one is making a pick between two teams in tailspins, one looks for any edge they can think of. So, I’ll go with the “Better Without Braylon” angle.

Browns, 17-14

Cincinnati (+8.5) over Baltimore

When I made my decision on which team to pick in this game, I used the following logic: is it easier to make a case for a Bengals upset, or a Ravens blowout win?

The Ravens could come into this game with something to prove; several members of the team believe they should have beaten the Patriots last week. A fired-up Ravens’ defense could spell doom for the Bengals.

While I fully expect the Ravens to win this game, I think the Bengals’ defense is better than in years past and, quite possibly, it can limit what the Ravens can do offensively. Additionally, the Ravens can be scored upon, and the Bengals have a quality offense.

Looks like the case for a close, competitive game wins.

Ravens, 24-20

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit

The emergence of Rashard Mendenhall against the San Diego Chargers last week revitalized the Steelers’ running game. Now, with Mendenall the lead back, the Steelers have a full complement of offensive weapons. They should have little trouble scoring points this week.

The Lions are a work in progress. They are a better football team compared to last season, but remain young, inexperienced, and lacking in talent in some key areas. They may make a few plays in this one, but I don’t expect a close contest.

Steelers, 31-14

Atlanta (+2.5) over San Francisco

The Falcons come into this game fresh off the bye week. Their running game, which was their bread-and-butter last season, has struggled thus far. I’m sure a good portion of the last two weeks was spent figuring out ways to create holes for RB Michael Turner. As good as the 49ers are against the run, I believe he’ll have his best day of the young 2009 season.

Atlanta’s defense, which has given up nearly 400 yards per game, should benefit from missing 49ers star RB Frank Gore, who is out with an ankle injury. Glenn Coffee is a solid backup to Gore, but the Falcons will likely make QB Shaun Hill beat them by passing the ball.

I expect a close game; the 49ers have a playoff-caliber defense themselves. However, I think the 49ers’ lack of playmakers on offense will cost them.

Falcons, 24-21

Denver (+3) over New England

Both the Broncos and Patriots come into this game with something to prove.

For the Patriots, they need to prove that their revamped defense (4^th in yards allowed per game) is playoff-caliber. Tom Brady, four games into his comeback from missing the 2008 season, needs to prove that he can make plays in the face of a high-quality defense, something he wasn’t able to do against the Jets in week two.

The Denver Broncos need to prove they can withstand the rigors of their upcoming schedule. The defense needs to show it can slow down Brady and a talented offense. Ultimately, the Broncos need to win this game to not only prove the remaining naysayers they are for real, but to build on their current 3-0 record within the AFC.

Denver won’t go 16-0. However the combination of being at home, playing great defense, and remaining mistake-free on offense will be too much for the Patriots to overcome.

Broncos, 21-17

Arizona (-5.5) over Houston

The Cardinals are another team coming off a bye week and hosting a game. I find it difficult to bet against teams in this situation, no matter how they’ve played thus far in the season.

Both these teams have struggled at various times and are, in many ways, similar. Neither of these team have done well running the ball; both teams are pass-oriented on offense. Neither team can stop the opposition from effectively moving the ball through the air. This has all the makings of being a shootout.

One key difference though is in run defense, where the Cardinals have limited opponents to a shade under 80 yards per game, while the Texans give up an average of 165 yards per game. With two weeks off to game-plan for the Texans, this could be a breakout game for the Cardinals’ running backs.

Cardinals, 27-20

Jacksonville (+1) over Seattle

Just two weeks ago, I was of the belief the Jaguars were reeling. Two weeks later, the Jags have won two in a row and, looking ahead, could conceivably be 6-2 heading into their matchup with the NY Jets in week 10. My, how things have changed.

The Seahawks are vulnerable in this game because they struggle at stopping the run, and the Jaguars boast the dynamic running back, Maurice Jones-Drew. While Matt Hasselbeck returns to start at QB for Seattle, he isn’t bringing a star running back or a dynamic passing game with him.

Jaguars, 28-21

Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee

I was surprised to see the spread was so low for this game. It’s as if Las Vegas is still setting the lines based on last year still (see Broncos vs. Patriots as another example).

The Colts are 4-0; the Titans are 0-4. Peyton Manning is off to one of the best starts of his career, while Kerry Collins looks like a journeyman QB hanging on by a thread to his starting job. The Colts’ offense is gaining over 400 yards per game. The Titans’ defense is among the league’s worst to this point.

I suppose if Tennessee won their next 12 games, they have a shot at the playoffs. Don’t look for that to happen though, because their schedule is brutal.

Colts, 27-18

Miami (+2) over NY Jets

The Dolphins thumped the Buffalo Bills last week. The Jets held their own against the Saints but, ultimately, came up short.

So far this season, the Dolphins have been significantly better at home this year. In addition to their rout of Buffalo, they nearly knocked off the Colts in a well-played week two loss. Miami will look to run the ball, control the time of possession, and try not to make any turnovers.

 As well as the Jets have played in the early going, this will be an important game for this team. Like the Baltimore Ravens teams of a few years ago, the defense will carry the Jets as far as they will go. The Jets need to be challenged and face some adversity. Miami will happily provide the Jets what they need, and more.

Dolphins, 20-13

 

For more insight on the NFL and the MLB playoffs: http://masterprocrastinator.wordpress.com/

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Week 2: NFL Picks and Predictions

If you look over at my blog site (www.sports-uncut.com) and look at my week one picks, you’ll see that I missed only two picks last week, which makes my record coming into this week a very sleek-looking 14-2.

I pick the games every week.  Have for years, and last year was my best effort, finishing right at 80 percent.  This year I’m looking to beat that personal best. 

When I pick the games, I do so from a win/lose, matchup standpoint, meaning, I don’t factor in the lines and who’s favored by what.  It’s just a straight up who’s gonna win it.  So, I’m shooting for another 12+ win record this week….let’s get to it!

 

Week 2 NFL picks:

Record from previous Week (1): 14-2

Record coming into Week(2): 14-2

Overall record: 14-2

 

Games:

Sunday Sept. 20, 2009

·           Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Houston looked absolutely dreadful in their opener at home.  Andre Johnson, who in my opinion is maybe the best WR in the league, was a complete non-factor.  Maybe that was because there was no one to take some of the attention away from him, or maybe it was just that Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and the rest of that team flat out stunk. 

This week, they go to Tennessee and face the Kerry Collins-led Titans, and I don’t think it gets any better for them.  Tennessee’s D is too tough and the Texans certainly look beatable. 

Verdict: Tennessee gets it done at home.

 

·                New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams looked stellar in Week 1.  Drew Brees owned the Lions D, to the tune of six TD’s and 350+ passing and 45 points.  The Eagles looked pretty good in their opener as well, easily beating the Panthers and interception prone Jack Delhomme. 

This week could be different though.  The game IS in Philly at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Saints D IS beatable.  However, the questions surrounding Donovan McNabb and whether or not he’ll play worry me. 

Without him, they’re just not the same, and Kevin Kolb has done nothing to impress me since he’s been in the league.  Garcia could play, and frankly, that’s a better option than Kolb. 

If McNabb plays, which it sounds like he will from what I’ve heard, the Eagles offense will be too much for the Saints D to stop. If he doesn’t play, the sledding becomes a bit more difficult.

Verdict:  The Eagles get a win and go to 2-0.

 

·                  Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cardinals looked like a different team from the last time we saw them suit up for real against the Steelers in the Super Bowl.  They looked lost, and completely out of sync offensively and defensively, they looked pretty pedestrian.

That said, the Jags looked equally as unspectacular as Arizona did in their defeat at the hands of Indianapolis.

Both teams worry me a bit right now for a couple of reasons:

1.  Mediocre QB play.

2.  Lackluster Defensive play.

So, in situations like this, I look at the team that has the most potential to do some serious damage.  Arizona is a sleeping giant, and once this team gets on track, that O will come back to life.  I look for a rebound this week.

Verdict:  The Cards win in a blowout.

 

·                 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

The lowly Raiders visit the equally unimpressive Chiefs in this AFC West match-up.  I’ve been pretty outspoken in saying that this division is the worst in Football, which is why it’s good to own Philip Rivers in your fantasy league…..I digress though.

One bad team plays another bad team and less worse of the two gets the win.

I like what KC did against the Ravens, hanging tough for a while and making it a game.  If they can do that again against the Raiders, like they should be able to, they’ll get the win.

Verdict:  Kansas City wins…barely.

 

·                 Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

The Bengals got beat at home by the Broncos on what can only be considered as the ‘Immaculate Deflection” when Kyle Orton found Brandon Stokley on an 87-yard TD.  However, they’re lucky that the game was that close.

Denver’s inability to execute was almost as bad as Cincy’s, and had the Broncos been functioning correctly, they would have killed the Bengals because they were deplorable.

Coversely, Green Bay punked the whiny one himself, Jay Cutler, by picking him off four times and making that offense look silly.  Aaron Rodgers wasn’t stellar, but was good enough to win. 

I think this week we’ll see the full power of the Green Bay Packers offense and I expect them to dominate defensively as well.

Verdict: Green Bay absolutely mauls the Bengals

 

·                 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

OK, it’s Minnesota and Mr. All Day, Adrian Peterson against the Lions.  Do I really need to explain this one?

Verdict: The Vikings get an easy Win in the Motor City.

 

·                 St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins

The Rams have so little in the way of offense, I would venture a guess that Detroit may have better options, aside from S-Jax of course.  I almost feel bad for that guy, because if he was on a decent team, he’d be amazing.

Washington was underwhelming in their loss to the Giants, but, it was the Giants.  The same Giants who’ll probably end up having a Top 5 defense.

I expect Campbell, Portis, Moss, and Cooley to get on track this week.  Jim Zorn will have them ready to go and I think they’ll get a much-needed win at home.

Verdict: Skins’ win pretty easy and Campbell actually looks like a real QB.

 

·           New England Patriots @ New York Jets

I WASN’T very impressed with the Patriots and what they showed on Monday night.  Frankly, Leodis McKelvin basically gave them that game. 

Brady was solid, as was Moss, but, Brady looked tentative and that’s to be expected, to some degree, after an injury like that.

I WAS impressed by what the rookie, Mark “Dirty” Sanchez showed me last week.  He looked fairly poised, and pretty comfortable in the pocket.  Thomas Jones was great, the offensive line looked good and the D was pretty solid.

This could be a sneaky good game, and I expect it to be a close one.  It’ll really come down to how the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets play Defense, and if they can stymie Tom Brady and the Pats’ O the way Buffalo did.

Verdict: New England wins in a very close game.

 

·           Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers looked like a bunch of clowns on Sunday afternoon, particularly Jake Delhomme.  He was simply awful. 

Awful to the point where people were questioning his “Starter” role.  In fairness to Delhomme, his offensive line wasn’t good and gave him little time to do anything, but, that performance was unacceptable.

The Panthers are in shambles, Steve Smith looks a lot older in just one year, and aside from DeAngelo Williams, they don’t have much else.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are LOADED with offensive talent, and defensively, they appear to have turned the corner.

Matt Ryan looks phenomenal, “The Burner” Mike Turner is a bonafide stud and Roddy White is an emerging superstar.  This team is poised to go far.

Verdict: Atlanta gets the W.

 

·           Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills looked really good against the Patriots, and had Leodis McKelvin not decided to try and be Superman, the Bills would have stolen a Win IN New England.

The Bills played D, Terrance McGeee looks to be an elite CB and the linebackers are as stout as any in the league. 

The one question I have is whether or not Trent Edwards can really be the guy?  He looked good Monday and we’ll see if that carries over.  They’ll likely try to get TO a couple more touches this week, and against that Tampa 2 D, it shouldn’t be too tough.

Verdict: Tampa sucks….Buffalo gets the Win.

 

·           Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

This is my game of the week!  This is going to be a very good game and I’m a little torn about which way to go as of now.

I like what Seattle showed last week.  But, keep in mind that was against the Rams.  Either way, Hasselbeck looked good, and John Carlson has emerged as a game changing TE.

I picked the 49ers last week, because I though defensively, they matched up well against the Cards.  Shaun Hill is just good enough to NOT lose the game and provide the occasional big play and Frank Gore is a stud.

This is going to be a great game, and I expect the 49ers D to play tough and the Seahawks D to match the intensity.

Verdict: Seattle wins a close game.

 

·           Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers

One thing I can tell you for sure, is that BOTH of these teams will be much better this week.  Baltimore will be better defensively and San Diego will improve on their performance against the Raiders from Monday night.

The question is now; who improves more? 

That’s a tough one to answer, but Baltimore’s D is getting older, and the Chargers have some emerging players.

One in particular, is Vincent Jackson, who could end up being a Top 5 WR by season’s end.  This is going to be a tough game, and Merriman has to play like his old self, and the Charger D has to step up.

Verdict: I think Philip Rivers and the Chargers get a big W

 

·           Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears

This is going to be a defensive battle, but, I think points will be scored.  Chicago is missing it’s heart and soul now with Brian Urlacher being out for the year, and Pittsburgh is missing it’s soul with Troy Polamalu being out as well.

I think Pittsburgh is vulnerable to the pass out of certain sets, but, with little help from his WR’s and TE’s, Jay Cutler won’t be able to capitalize on that. 

I think Santonio Holmes will have a decent night, but with the pressure being applied by Chicago, look for Heath Miller to be involved early.

Verdict: Pittsburgh gets a road win

 

·           Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

If this were 1986, you’d be talking about one hell of a game coming up. However, it’s not, and we’re certainly not talking about one hell of a game here. 

This is a battle of two average to bad teams.  Cleveland has been in limbo since their last playoff appearance in 2004, and Denver has been reeling since then as well.

I think in this game, based off of what we saw in both teams’ openers, we’ll see some improvement from both squads. 

That said, Denver’s O is scary bad and Cleveland’s showed the ability to score.  Denver’s D looks better than Cleveland’s, but, Cleveland’s isn’t as bad as it once was either.

Verdict: Browns get an ugly win in Denver.

 

·           New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

For no reason in particular, other then the fact that it’s the home opener in the new stadium, I think the Cowboys are going to be tough.

The early estimates say that 110,000 people will be in the “House that Jerry Built” and if that’s the case, that creates homefield advantage like a mother!

It’ll be a decent game, and a good one for the league.

Verdict: Dallas wins their home opener.

 

Monday Sept. 21, 2009

 

·           Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

This should be a solid match-up for the discerning Monday Night Football fan.  Peyton Manning was solid if unspectacular in the opener, and Miami was decent in their loss.

I expect to see Ronnie Brown get more touches this week, something around 22-25 and run on that Colts D that let MJD run all over them a week ago.  This will come down to who scores more.

Verdict: Peyton Manning dismantles Miami’s D and gets the W

 

So, there’s my picks for Week 2.  Good luck!

 

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Kyle Orton “Picks” Up The New Look Offense In Preseason Opener

The Broncos had some exciting moments and some down right infuriating moments, in yesterday’s Preseason opener in San Fransisco.  In their first offensive possession, the Bronx dominated the 49ers, taking the ball all the way down they field.  This uber long drive was capped off by a superb pass to the other team in the endzone.  Turnovers negated anything good the offense would accomplish in the first half. 

The first game was a wash.  With this many turnovers, you can’t expect McDaniels to call a clean offensive attack.  We will have to wait, until next weak to get a realistic view of the starting offense. 

Quarterbacks

As a Bronco fan, you hate to see this kind of thing happen to your starting Quarterback.  I’ve been to training camp this year.  Orton looked like a gamer!  He threw accurate lasers into the back of the endzone (he even threw one at my head!). 

In yesterdays game, Orton looked great on the first drive.  Completing short passes, that spread out the defense.

I’m pretty sure he’ll bounce back next week.  If not, then McD will have some decisions to make at QB.  For now, let’s give him a chance.

Chris Simms looked awesome!  I have to say it’s weird watching a left handed QB man the offense, but if he plays like that, I’m fine with it.

With Simms at the helm, the Broncos came to within one point of the 49ers with two minutes to go in the game.

It was definitely more exciting to watch Simms play yesterday than Orton, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves though.  The 2nd string QB ALWAYS looks like a superstar in the preseason.  In my humble opinion, it is easier to run a second string offense then it is to run a second string defense, hence the backups usually seem to play better than the starters.

Wide Receivers

Kenny McKinley, Eddie Royal, and Brandon Lloyd led the team in receiving yards.

I really like this McKinley kid!  He looks really fast out there and he can also help on Special Teams.

Eddie Royal ran some superb routes and it looked like Nate Clements was giving him about 15 yards for every down.  Now that’s respect!

Lloyd made some exciting catches and was part of the reason why Simm’s was able to attempt a second half comeback.

The Offense looked wide open yesterday and the QBs were able to spread the ball around effectively.

Tight Ends

Who?  Did McDaniels play any TEs yesterday?  From the looks of the stats sheet, the first team TE squad was primarily used as a blocking unit. 

We know that Orton attempted to pass the ball to Daniel Graham in the end zone on the first drive, but until Jeb Putzier’s touchdown catch in the second half, the TEs were nonexistent in the passing game.

We did get to see the rookie TE Richard Quinn push around some defensive ends, which is always fun to watch.

I definitely want the TEs to play a bigger role in the passing game in the future.

Backs

Peyton Hillis was the stud of the day, big surprise, as he averaged 4.9 yards a carry and added two passing receptions for 18 yards.

Superstar rookie Knowshon Moreno looked like a freight train in his NFL debut, averaging a whopping six yards a carry.  Unfortunately, he had to leave the game early with an undisclosed leg injury.  I look forward to this stud playing in Denver for many years.

Lamont Jordan was a steady force in the backfield.  He even got into the passing game, with a nine yard comeback route in the first half.

Correll Buckhalter was unimpressive in his debut as a Bronco, but I attribute his paltry one yard per carry average to the play of the offensive line.  Buck should show his true colors as the season goes on.

Offensive Line

The Offensive Line was “GODLIKE” in pass protection, not allowing any sacks all game.  Orton should do wonders with all the time he will have in the pocket this year.  However, the O-line will have to be much stronger in their run blocking.  Preseason or not, the Broncos should average over 100 rushing yards a game. 

Defensive Line

I liked these guys!  The big men up front (Fields, Peterson, Baker, and McBean), filled the gaps effectively and even created a lot of pressure in the pocket.  However, the Niners still found enough holes to get over 100 rushing yards on the day.  I attribute this to Preseason gitters.  The big runs were caused by missed gap assignments and missed tackles.  These mistakes should be taken care over by game one. 

Linebackers

The Outside line backers (Haggan, Dumervil, and Moss) looked really fast.  Elvis Dumervil looked like a freak, breaking into the backfield numerous times.  I am really pushing for Jarvis Moss to break into the second team defense.  I think he can be a special player in the 3-4. 

First round draft choice Rober Ayers was a little disappointing in his NFL debut.  This just shows that he needs more practice time, before showing his real potential.

The inside linebackers looked out of place to me.  Spencer Larsen showed he is a great force at linebacker and should add a wealth of depth to the linebacker corps.  This whole group needs to work on their pass defense skills.

Defensive Backs

These guys showed good recovery speed and tackling skills, but seemed out of place.  The defensive front provided enough pressure, that the defensive backs should have been better against the pass, but the Niners tore up their zone defense.  However, with more practice, this unit is going to be sweet.

Special Teams

So far, I don’t know who I want returning kicks and punts for the Broncos.  Alphonso Smith and Kenny McKinley are both tremendous, in my book.  Both have super speed and cat-like reflexes.  Who ever wins the starting spot, will definitely add a highlight reel or two to this years special teams unit.

The kicking team was fine.  With only one rep given to each player, you really can’t form an opinion yet.

At the end of the day, I was happy with the performance.  The brunt of the mistakes can only be attributed to one player.  I think the Broncos are on the right track to greatness this year.

GO BRONCOS!!!

 

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