Sunday Morning Under the Helmet: What to Watch for in NFL Week 14

It’s another great day for football! Here’s a look at what to watch for in Week 14.

Matchup of the Week: San Diego Chargers (9-3) at  Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

Last week we asked the question: can the Dallas Cowboys find a way to win in December? But, as they have done often in the final month since 2006, the Cowboys lost.

Today the Cowboys host the 9-3 San Diego Chargers who are 15-0 in December since ’06, the longest such streak in NFL history. Since starting this season 2-3, the Chargers have won seven in a row and are one of the league’s hottest teams.

Both teams are trying to remain first in their respective divisions as the Cowboys have the 8-4 Eagles breathing down their necks and the Bolts have the 8-4 Denver Broncos knocking on their door.

The play of Phillip Rivers could be the biggest factor in each team’s quest at holding onto first place.

Rivers, who is experiencing an MVP caliber season so far for the Chargers, has thrown for 3,311 yards with 21 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He has a quarterback rating of 104.9 which is third behind the Saints‘ Drew Brees and Brett Favre of the Vikings.

Rivers has thrown for 300+ yards and two touchdowns in each of his last two games. He has a completion percentage of 72.0 percent or higher in each of his last four games.

His top two targets, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, are also playing very well right now.

Gates leads the team in receptions and receiving yards with 67 and 994, respectively, he also has four touchdown catches.

Jackson has 51 catches for 869 yards and a team high seven receiving touchdowns.

But the high powered Chargers offense (3rd in points per game with 28.5) have been pretty one-dimensional this season.

San Diego ranks sixth in passing but 30th in rushing yards. They’re averaging just 88.7 yards per game on the ground and at times are predictable.

The Cowboys are a bit more balanced. They rank seventh in passing and eighth in rushing yards. They also rank 11th in points per game with 23.2.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is having a Pro Bowl season himself. Through 12 games, Romo has thrown for 3,325 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has a rating of 96.3.

But it will be the running game that will be the key to the ‘Boys’ late season success (or lack thereof).

Marion Barber leads the team with 669 rushing yards but has only topped 100 yards once this season and that was all the way back in Week Two. Barber, along with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, have to find a way to run the ball better if they’re going to win in the final month of the season and into the play-offs.

 

Keys to the game

-Rivers and Romo

-Which team can run the ball better?

-Quarterback protection

Prediction: Chargers win 38-27.

 

 

Small Names, Big Games

Here we will take a look at three non-superstars who will post big numbers in Week 14.

Fred Jackson (RB, Buffalo)

Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have shared the starting running back job for the Buffalo Bills all season long. But despite Lynch’s success in past seasons, Jackson has seen the majority of the carries and has had a few big games to show for it.

Jackson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has totalled 919 yards from scrimmage this season.

This week the Bills go against the Chiefs who rank 27th against the run.

Look for Jackson to have another big game both rushing and receiving this afternoon.

 

Davone Bess (WR, Miami)

Second year receiver Davone Bess leads the Miami Dolphins in receptions and receiving yards thus far in 2009.

Last week in Miami’s 22-21 victory over New England, Bess caught 10 passes for 117 yards, both career highs. He also had a 13 yard touchdown catch in the second quarter.

Today, Bess and the Dolphins head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars who rank 24th against the pass. Bess could have another big performance this week.

 

Quinton Ganther (RB, Washington)

With all the injuries in the Redskins backfield, running back Quinton Ganther is expected to make his first career start this afternoon against the Raiders.

Ganther has carried the ball 19 times for 88 yards so far this season including eight rushes for 46 yards in last week’s loss to the Saints.

Ganther, an Oakland native, will replace Rock Cartwright atop the ‘Skins depth chart and could have some success. The Raiders rank 30th against the run and are allowing an average of 158.7 yards per game to opposing rushing attacks.

Don’t be surprised if Ganther makes a few big plays in the run game this afternoon.

 

Others To Watch: Chris Brown (RB, Houston), Ray Rice (RB, Baltimore), J.P. Foschi (TE, Cincinnati)

 

 

Upset Alert!: Denver (8-4) over Indianapolis (12-0)???

For the third consecutive week the Indianapolis Colts are featured in this section, but in the previous two weeks have found ways to win despite the predictions. Is the third time the charm?

The Colts are attempting to break the record for longest regular season winning streak in NFL history. They’re currently tied with the ’06-’08 Patriots with 21. (However, the ’03-’04 Pats still comfortably hold the longest winning streak, including playoffs, in league history)

The Broncos have a good chance to finally put an end to that streak today.

But to do so, Denver will have to stop the Colts’ best weapon: Peyton Manning.

Manning leads the NFL in passing yards with 3,685 yards. He also has thrown for 25 touchdowns. He has a quarterback rating of 101.9.

Manning’s top receiver, Reggie Wayne, is third in the NFL with 83 catches and sixth with 1,035 yards.

Dallas Clark, the team’s tight end, is fifth in catches with 77, tops for his position.

So how do the Denver Broncos counter the Manning-Wayne-Clark trio?

Elvis Dumervil.

Dumervil leads the NFL with 15.0 sacks. He has dominated all season long.

Dumervil is just one sack away from tying the franchise record of 16 set by Simon Fletcher in 1992. Dumervil is on pace for 20 sacks and could possibly break Michael Strahan’s record of 22.5.

The Colts will have to find a way to stop Dumervil, especially on third downs. Dumervil is one short of the NFL record for sacks on third downs. He currently has 10.

The Broncos also boast the league’s third ranked defense. They’ve held opponents to just 16.8 points per game. They’re also second against the pass and third in total yards allowed.

The keys to stopping Manning have always been to get pressure and take away his top targets. As cited above, Denver has that dominant pass rusher, and with Champ Bailey having a great season at cornerback, they’ve got that shut down defensive back. So maybe, just maybe, this defense will be able to put a stop to Manning.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos will likely try to attack the Colts’ weak secondary. Indy is 19th against the pass and have injuries in their defensive backfield.

Kyle Orton and Brandon Marshall could have their way in the passing attack.

The Broncos will also need to win the time of possession battle. Running a lot with rookie Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter could make that possible.

 

 

Keys for DEN

-Put pressure on Peyton Manning

-Shut down Wayne and Clark

-Control time of possession

-Stretch the field with Brandon Marshall

Prediction: Broncos win 30-21

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Alex’s 32 Teams in 32 Days: Team 26—Denver Broncos

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2008 Record:   8-8

 

2008 Season Review

For the Broncos, 2008 was a dramatic, rollercoaster of a season.  They experienced ups and downs, twists and turns before it all came crashing down.

The season started off with three-straight electrifying offensive performances.  Sitting at 3-0, the Broncos were averaging 38.0 points-per-game.

But then came the first dip in their season.  Denver went 1-4 in their next five games, including an embarrassing 41-7 loss to New England on Monday Night Football.

With three games remaining the Broncos sat at 8-5, three games ahead of the 5-8 Chargers in the AFC West.  However, that would not last long.

After two-straight losses and with San Diego on a winning streak, the quest for the division title came down to the week 17 match-up between the two division rivals.  It was a matter of win and you’re in, lose and you go home.

The game was a disaster for the Broncos.

San Diego got out to a 24-6 halftime lead and ended up winning 52-21.

One of the biggest reasons for their ugly collapse was the defense. Actually the defense struggled all year, but the offense could no longer keep up with the massive amount of points the opponents were scoring game after game.

In the last three games, the Broncos were outscored 112-54.

Overall, opponents averaged 28.0 points-per-game against Denver, a ranking of 30th in the NFL.

They gave up at least 30 points in half of their games, an incredible statistic.

Despite the defensive struggles, the offense was very explosive and led by quarterback Jay Cutler, was capable of putting up impressive numbers at any time.

They ranked second in yards gained, 395.8 yards-per-game, and third in passing yards, 279.4 yards-per-game.

Even though they ranked high in total yards and passing yards, it was a combination of a middle-of-the-road rushing attack and too many turnovers that resulted in a mediocre 23.1 (16th in NFL) points-per-game.

Denver turned the ball over 30 times, and had a turnover differential of -17 (worst in the NFL).

The backfield was torn up with injuries. Opening day starter Selvin Young went down early in the season with a hamstring injury and was eventually placed on injured reserve (IR). From there, the dominoes never stopped falling and the ground game suffered.

Michael Pittman, Ryan Torrain, P.J. Pope and Andre Hall were all placed on IR.

When fullback-turned-halfback Peyton Hillis had five touchdowns and was averaging 5.5 yards-per-carry over his weeks 11-14 starts, the Broncos seemed to have found their running back for the remainder of the season.

But the injury bug bit Hillis too.  Hillis was placed on IR with a hamstring injury.

After falling short of the playoffs for the third year in a row, longtime coach Mike Shanahan lost his job.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was hired as Shanahan’s successor.

 

Key Additions 

S Brian Dawkins, CB Andre Goodman, S Renaldo Hill, QB Kyle Orton, QB Chris Simms, RB Knowshon Moreno (draft), RB Correll Buckhalter, RB LaMont Jordan, LB Nick Greisen, WR Jabar Gaffney, DT Ronald Fields, LB Andra Davis, DE Robert Ayers (draft), CB Alphonso Smith (draft)

 

Key Losses 

QB Jay Cutler, CB Dre’ Bly, S Marlon McCree, S Marquand Manuel, LB Jamie Winborn, RB Selvin Young, DE John Engelberger, DE Dewayne Robertson

 

2009 Preview

The transition in Denver from the Mike Shanahan era to the Josh McDaniels era has been everything but smooth.

Early in the offseason, Matt Cassel, then of the New England Patriots, became available for trade after Tom Brady seemed to be on track with his recovery from knee surgery. 

Of course McDaniels coached Cassel with the Patriots so he was familiar with the young quarterback and he knew Cassel was knowledgeable of the offensive system.

Therefore, hearing Cassel was available sparked interest in McDaniels.

McDaniels felt Cassel would be a better fit in the offense than Cutler so he tried to make a deal with the Patriots.  But it was too late.

New England had already completed a deal that would send Cassel to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Despite the Broncos trying to keep the word quiet, the news got out that McDaniels tried to acquire his former quarterback.

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Cutler, who was already aggravated at ownership about the firing of Shanahan and the decision not to bring back quarterbacks coach Jeremy Bates, was upset by the reports.  Although McDaniels and owner Pat Bowlen each tried to talk with him about the situation, Cutler requested a trade.

On April 2 Cutler was shipped to Chicago in exchange for draft picks and quarterback Kyle Orton.

Orton was quickly named the 2009 starting quarterback for Denver after he beat out Chris Simms for the job in the spring.

Orton is a good player, but Cutler led Denver to the NFL’s No. 2 ranking in total offense last season. However, McDaniels is confident Orton will play well in his system. But, if Orton starts slow, the pressure on him will increase.

Orton’s top target may be Brandon Marshall.

However, Marshall has also requested a trade out of Denver. He wants a new contract but isn’t getting it.

Behind Marshall on the receivers depth chart is second-year wideout Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokely, and free agent signee Brandon Lloyd.  Tight end Tony Scheffler is also a big target in the passing attack.

With the first of their two first round picks in the 2009 draft, Denver selected Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno.

Moreno is expected to be the starter and share time with Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan in the backfield.  Others such as Ryan Torain, Darius Walker and Peyton Hillis will compete for a spot as well.

The offensive line is certainly a strength for the Broncos. Second-year tackle Ryan Clady quickly emerged as one of the best offensive lineman in the league as a rookie.  Clady will continue to block the quarterback’s blindside in 2009.

Veteran guard Ben Hamilton is always a consistent piece on the line and Pro Bowl center Casey Wiegmann will snap the ball.

The weak defensive unit from a year ago saw several notable changes for ’09.

New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will help the unit improve from a play calling and schemes perspective.

Under Nolan the defense will transition from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4.  There will likely be some “growing pains” through the transition.

Veteran safety Brian Dawkins comes over from the Eagles to be the hard-hitter and leader in the secondary.

The additions of Andre’ Goodman and rookie Alphonso Smith will provide much needed talent and depth to go along with Champ Bailey at the cornerback position.

With Jamie Winborn, Denver’s 2008 leading tackler, now gone, the health and play of linebacker DJ Williams and newly acquired Andra Davis will be essential to the success of the linebacking corps and the defensive unit.

Rookie Robert Ayers will likely play a hybrid position. He can play either defensive end or outside linebacker. But no matter where he plays, he must rush the passer effectively for a team that had just 26 sacks in ’08.

Elvis Dumervil and Darrell Reid will compete for the other defensive end spot. Dumervil thrived as a pass rusher in his first two years, collecting 21 sacks, but he was only able to tally five sacks last season. He sometimes struggles at the point of attack and lacks the size of a prototypical end in the 3-4, but his experience gives him an advantage. Reid is bigger but has started just two games in his four NFL seasons.

 

Bottom Line: With the many changes in Denver, there are many questions: Do the players trust McDaniels? Can Kyle Orton succeed? Will the defense be improved?

We really don’t know the answers to those questions yet, and until we do it’s hard to predict what this team will be like.  But I think the Broncos will take a small step back before going forward in 2010. Expect somewhere between five and eight wins in ’09.

 

Previous Rankings

32. Detroit Lions

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

30. Cleveland Browns

29. Oakland Raiders

28. Kansas City Chiefs

27. St. Louis Rams

Be sure to check in tomorrow for the unveiling of team 25. 

 

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