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Spread ‘Em: Week 13 NFL Picks
Published: December 5, 2009
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The NFL is in its home stretch. It’s the final five weeks of the season and teams still alive for a playoff spot will see their season change for better or worse.
Following my worst week of the season (6-10) last week, hopefully Thursday’s win will serve as a springboard.
Remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only. Here’s the rest of week 13:
Denver (-4.5) over Kansas City
At this time of year, with bye weeks now in everyone’s rear-view mirrors, playing on Sunday following a Thursday night game is the closest thing a team will get to having an extra week off.
Traditionally, Denver is brutal at Kansas City in the month of December, and the Chiefs have played better recently—with the exception of their game against the Chargers last week. This could be a prime example of a “trap game.”
However, take the bait and the Broncos. They have playoffs on their minds, they’re rested, they’re running the football with renewed vigor, and they’re simply the better football team.
Broncos 24, Chiefs 13
New England (-5) over Miami
Given their road woes this season, it was surprising to see the Patriots favored by five points. All four losses this season have come away from Gillette Stadium.
Following the rout in New Orleans in Week 12, a loss that pushed their road record to 0-4 in the continental U.S., the Patriots recognize they need a win—and a convincing one—in Miami, for two reasons.
First and foremost, a loss to the Dolphins puts the Pats at 7-5, giving the Dolphins and Jets belief that they have a shot at the AFC East.
Secondly, a big road win against a division rival restores confidence and gives New England good reason to believe they can win the rest of their games—a run which would give them an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
The Patriots are due. They’re better than they’ve shown in road games, and at this time of year in season’s past, they’ve played their best football. It won’t be different in 2009.
Patriots 31, Dolphins 17
Pittsburgh (-13) over Oakland
Like the Broncos, the Raiders have had a little extra time off, thanks to their Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas. Initially, the thinking was that the Raiders would be competitive due to the rest and the uncertainty regarding Ben Roethlisberger.
However, after some thought, the Steelers can win this game by two touchdowns with Dennis Dixon under center—that is, if Mike Tomlin and the Steelers decided to rest Roethlisberger another week.
With Oakland allowing something in the neighborhood of 160 yards per game on the ground, the Steelers should be able to run the ball capably and dominate the Raiders.
Plus, if motivation means anything, the Steelers have lost three games in a row—the last two in overtime—and they need a win to improve their playoff hopes.
Steelers 28, Raiders 10
Jacksonville (pick ‘em) over Houston
Last week’s deflating loss to the Colts effectively ended any chance the Texans had of making the playoffs. According to most “in the know,” it also marked the beginning of the end of the Gary Kubiak Era in Houston as well.
The Texans struggle to defend the run, and the Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars don’t defend the pass well, while Houston thrives on using the air attack to moving the ball offensively.
So long as Jaguars’ QB David Garrard can complete a few passes to keep Houston’s defense honest, the Jags should be able to control the ball and keep the Houston offense off the field, giving them the edge in this one.
Jaguars 24, Texans 21
Tennessee (+7) over Indianapolis
Peyton Manning should feast on the Titans’ pass defense, as he did earlier this season (309 yards and 3 touchdowns). The Colts are capable of striking early, and the Titans would probably have a tough time playing catch-up.
However, these Titans are different from the ones that were blown out by the Colts earlier this season. The main differences are at quarterback and running back.
Vince Young has taken over under center and completed nearly 63 per cent of his passes, well above his career average (58 per cent). He seems poised and offers more versatility at the QB position than Kerry Collins.
At running back, Chris Johnson is no longer splitting carries with LenDale White. During Tennessee’s five-game winning streak, the 18 carries he had last week against Arizona was his lowest total. He had averaged 26 carries per game in the previous four victories.
This is a winnable game for the Titans. More importantly, they need to win in order to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. For the Colts, reaching 12-0 and 21 straight wins in the regular season—tying an NFL record—would be important milestones.
It would be nice to see the Titans win. More likely, though, Manning has a huge game, and the Colts survive a 130-yard effort from Johnson to win a close one at home.
Colts 27, Titans 24
Philadelphia (-5.5) over Atlanta
With Matt Ryan and Michael Turner dinged up, the Falcons turn to their understudies—QB Chris Redman and RBs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling) to salvage their playoff hopes.
Meanwhile, the home crowd will be riled up for an appearance from former franchise quarterback Michael Vick.
Those storylines aside, the Eagles are better defensively and have highly-skilled, big-play receivers on offense that should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points against an Atlanta defense that isn’t good.
Eagles 31, Falcons 17
Cincinnati (-13) over Detroit
Cincinnati’s pass defense is very good, led by the under-publicized Leon Hall at corner back.
Should Calvin Johnson play for the Lions, Hall will get the nod to start opposite him. He should quietly limit Johnson to one of his worst games of the season.
Cincinnati’s run-based offense should thrive against the Lions, who can’t seem to stop anyone on the ground or in the passing game. Expect big days for all of the Bengals’ skill players as they attempt to cement their status as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
It sounds preposterous with the Bengals as a potential No. 2 seed, but it’s the reality of the NFL in 2009.
Bengals 31, Lions 10
Washington (+9.5) over New Orleans
First, let’s get the obvious out the way: the Saints are clearly the better team in this matchup.
However, the Redskins’ defense is very good against the pass, and it could potentially negate the Saints’ strength on offense.
Up front, the Redskins are not as strong defensively against the run, and the Saints’ group of running backs should be able to pound the ball and control the time of possession—if it gets done to it.
The matchups seem to lead to a closer game than many would expect. Factor in the point that the Saints are coming off an emotional home win, they have a slightly shorter week to prepare, and they travel to Washington. This could be a trap game for the Saints.
Take the Redskins outright. At the very least, they should cover.
Redskins 24, Saints 21
Believe it or not, the Buccaneers enter this game with the more stable quarterback situation. Nobody has faith in Jake Delhomme, besides his receiver Steve Smith, and neither should Carolina at this point.
Still, the Panthers’ offense is based in large part on their strong running game, and the Buccaneers struggle to defend the run.
Whether Delhomme starts or the Panthers turn to backup Matt Moore, Carolina’s running backs will have to do much of the work, and the Buccaneers should be able to load up the line of scrimmage to stop the run.
The Panthers’ passing game can’t make enough plays to prevent the Bucs from keying in on the run. The Panthers’ defense isn’t what it used to be either.
Buccaneers 20, Panthers 13
St. Louis (+9) over Chicago
The Rams could be just what the doctor ordered for the struggling Bears. However, with the Bears struggling both offensively and defensively, they’ll be locked in a tight game with the Rams.
The bottom line is that the Bears have to play mistake-free football to cover this spread—something they are capable of right now. Talent-wise, they should win. If the Rams are forced into a few turnovers, the Bears will win easily.
The Rams’ Stephen Jackson will be heavily utilized against the Bears, and rightfully so. If he has a big game, the Rams have a chance to win this game outright.
Bears 24, Rams 20
San Diego (-13) over Cleveland
Does this one even need explaining? It was a surprise to see this spread under two touchdowns.
Chargers 37, Browns 13
San Francisco (pick ’em) over Seattle
The 49ers still have a shot at a playoff berth, and their offense has some emerging talent. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have struggled lately on both sides of the ball.
One thing working in the Seahawks’ favor is that they haven’t played a home game in nearly a month; their last three games have come away from Qwest Field. They tend to play significantly better at home.
Still, the 49ers’ desperation to win and stay in the NFC West and wildcard races will be the deciding factor in what should be a close game.
49ers 20, Seahawks 17
NY Giants (+2) over Dallas
Both teams enter this game having last played on Thanksgiving, so they’ve both enjoyed a longer break between games.
The Giants have seemingly lost the ability to run the ball. Their quarterback is playing through the effects of plantar fascilitis. Their defense is struggling. It’s no wonder the Giants have lost five of their last six.
Yet, despite these issues, they are desperate and will be playing at home, which might help them rediscover some of what made them successful in the last couple seasons rushing the passer and pounding the football on the ground.
Simultaneously, a Giants win will cast doubt on whether or not the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Dallas’ struggles in the month of December with Tony Romo as quarterback are well-known, and a loss in this game will only reignite that doubt.
Giants 24, Cowboys 21
Minnesota (-3) over Arizona
Many believe the Vikings are the best team in football—certainly among the best. If the Cardinals were to beat Minnesota, they’d need to be at full strength, meaning that Kurt Warner would play and play well.
Given that Warner sat out last week and is a game-time decision this week, you have to question his ability to have the kind of game necessary to keep the Cardinals competitive against Brett Favre and the Vikings’ explosive offense.
Regardless of whether Warner plays, or how effective he might be if plays, the key matchup will be Arizona’s run defense against Adrian Peterson. Arizona’s run defense had a great start to the season, but has struggled in recent games.
If the Cardinals can limit Peterson, their chances or covering the spread or winning improves significantly. If they can’t slow Peterson down, the Vikings will win easily, no matter who is under center for Arizona.
Vikings 27, Cardinals 17
Monday Night
Oh sure, the Ravens’ defense isn’t what it once was. In fact, statistically speaking, the Packers are better than the Ravens defensively.
However, Baltimore’s five losses this season have all come against teams in the playoff picture in their respective conferences (New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati twice). Is it possible the Ravens are underrated?
That isn’t to say the Packers are overrated. Three of their four losses have also come to playoff-type teams (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati). But Aaron Rodgers is playing Pro Bowl-caliber football.
The Ravens should be favored in this one. They still have some big performers on defense, even if the unit as a whole seems to be in decline. A big game on a big stage is where Ray Lewis shines, and it’s likely he’ll make a few big plays to turn the tide in a close Baltimore win.
Ravens 17, Packers 13
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The Ledger: NFL Week Six Picks Review
Published: October 20, 2009
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It’s another installment of The Ledger, the column that provides my take on every game I picked against the spread from the previous week’s NFL schedule.
For the first time all season, double-digit underdogs (Oakland, Cleveland, St. Louis) finally demonstrated the ability to play competitive football. Three of the four double-digit ‘dogs covered the spread this week, reversing a season-long trend that saw most double-digit favorites blowing out their opponents.
Week six was a mixed bag for me, as I went 7-7 to take my overall record to 54-36 on the season. For my original picks and insight, look here:
Now, let’s take a look to see what went right and what went wrong with my picks from week six.
Chiefs 14, Redskins 6 (Kansas City, +6.5)
Maybe this was a no-brainer rather than an upset.
As I alluded to last week, there’s quite a bit of speculation about 2010 swirling around the Redskins these days. It’s hard to focus on the moment when the owner, the coach, the quarterback, the running back, the star defensive acquisition, the media, and the fans are already looking past 2009 and wondering what’s to come.
Either way, neither of these teams is going anywhere in 2009. At least the Chiefs are building toward a future. The Redskins may have to blow things up and just start over. (1-0)
Texans 28, Bengals 17 (Cincinnati, -5)
I should have followed my instinct on this one.
My original fear in picking the Bengals this week was that this felt like a classic “trap game.” I went with Cincinnati anyway because I believed they would control the time of possession, run the ball well with Cedric Benson, and force some bad decisions from Houston QB Matt Schaub.
As it turned out, Schaub threw for nearly 400 yards, the Texans controlled the clock by nearly 13 minutes, and Benson had only 44 yards rushing. Cincinnati also lost the turnover battle and played their worst game of the season. Plus, with defensive standout Antawn Odom out for the year, the Bengals lost more than a key conference game. (1-1)
Steelers 27, Browns 14 (Pittsburgh, -14)
Pittsburgh outgained the Browns 543-to-197 and had 28 first downs. The Steelers held the ball for 13 more minutes than Cleveland did. They even forced four Cleveland turnovers.
Alas, the Steelers committed four turnovers themselves, and the miscues helped keep the hapless Browns in the game until half-way through the third quarter. Pittsburgh made a gallant effort to cover the spread, but came up short when a fourth quarter scoring drive was stalled, leading to a field goal instead of a touchdown.
This game was a prime example of why it’s risky to bet on the favorites when they are giving double digits. For most of the year, it’s been a safe play. Not this week. (1-2)
Vikings 33, Ravens 31 (Minnesota, -3)
The Vikings had this game won, it appeared, when they took a 27-10 lead on a Brett Favre TD pass to Vincent Shiancoe with about 10 minutes left to play in the game. However, Baltimore’s offense, led by Joe Flacco, became a quick-strike unit that surged ahead 31-30 with 3:37 left in the game
The Vikings drove 66 yards in 1:41, thanks in large part to a 58-yard pass from Brett Favre to Sidney Rice, setting up the game-winning field goal from Ryan Longwell.
However, Minnesota couldn’t cover, barring strange circumstances, so the outcome didn’t matter to me at that point.
The Ravens had a chance to win the game on a reasonable 44-yard field goal attempt as time expired. With the bet already lost, I wanted to see Steven Hauschka’s kick sail through the uprights to give the Ravens a well-earned victory. Instead, the Vikings went to 6-0, the Ravens lost their third straight, and my pick didn’t work out. (1-3)
Jaguars 23, Rams 20, OT ( St. Louis, +10)
In looking at the box score, one would have guessed the Jaguars had thrashed the Rams. They outgained St. Louis 492-to-262. The Jaguars had 33 first downs and held the ball for nearly 18 more minutes than the Rams did. Maurice Jones Drew scored three touchdowns.
However, the Jaguars nearly gave this game away. Leonard Little returned an errant David Garrard pass for a touchdown, and the Rams forced two other Jacksonville turnovers. It goes down as a loss for the Rams, but it’s their second near-upset of the season. They won’t go 0-16. (2-3)
Saints 48, Giants 27 (New Orleans, -3)
I’m not surprised the Saints won, because I thought the Giants’ schedule leading up to this game was pretty soft. I am surprised at how the Saints thoroughly beat the Giants.
By jumping out to a big early lead, the Saints turned the Giants into a one-dimensional offense. The Giants had to shelve the running game and throw the ball. Last week, Eli Manning played well on his injured foot, but that was against the Raiders. This week, Manning struggled in the face of the Saints’ defense, and the Giants couldn’t mount a serious comeback.
I still believe the comparisons to the 2007 Patriots and the other great offensive teams of the last 30 years are a bit premature for New Orleans. However, this game spoke volumes about what the Saints are capable of. If they stay healthy, the Saints could march right into the Super Bowl. (3-3)
Panthers 28, Buccaneers 21 (Carolina, -3.5)
It’s official. Whatever the ultimate outcome for the Carolina Panthers is this season, the Jake Delhomme Era should end. The Buccaneers entered this game surrendering over 250 passing yards per game on average. Delhomme threw for 65 yards, and his lone touchdown pass was to Tanard Jackson who is a cornerback for Tampa Bay.
Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combined for 262 yards rushing and three touchdowns, carrying the Panthers. The Buccaneers nearly pulled off the upset, thanks to the Jackson interception return and a kickoff return for a touchdown by Sammie Stroughter.
In fact, until the last minute of the game, the outcome was in doubt. However, DeAngelo Williams plunged for a one-yard touchdown with 29 seconds remaining though, giving the Panthers the win, and the cover, thankfully. (4-3)
Packers 26, Lions 0 (Green Bay, -13.5)
With Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson unavailable for the Lions, Detroit was in trouble before the coin was flipped at Lambeau Field on Sunday. It also didn’t help matters that the Packers were rested from having their bye week, and motivated from having lost their last game prior to their bye.
As lopsided as the score was, it could have been worse had it not for some penalties that stalled a couple Green Bay drives in field goal range. While the Lions were able to pressure Aaron Rodgers, sacking the Green Bay QB five times, the play of their backup QBs (Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton) ultimately led to their demise in this one. (5-3)
Raiders 13, Eagles 9 (Philadelphia, -14)
As I wrote at the top, it’s been an odd year for double-digit underdogs. In most cases, betting with the underdog is the safe play. This year that wasn’t the case, until this week.
Of all the upsets, I was most surprised by this outcome.
Zach Miller’s catch-and-run in the first quarter was the difference in the game. It was an 86-yard play that seemed to stun both the Eagles and Raiders.
Oakland’s secondary did a nice job denying the Eagles any deep passing plays, and the Eagles abandoned the run and tried to rely on short passes to advance the football and try to score.
The Raiders won in spite of JaMarcus Russell’s continued struggles. He threw two more interceptions and, outside of the big gain to Miller, was ineffective. (5-4)
Cardinals 27, Seahawks 3 (Seattle, -3)
After pounding the Jaguars last week, I believed the Seahawks were primed to reel off a few wins. Entering this game, the Cardinals were one of the worst passing defenses in the league. At the very worst, this game would be a shootout that came down to the final possession, or so I thought.
Instead, the Cardinals jumped all over the Seahawks, taking an early 14-0 lead. Arizona held the ball for over 40 minutes, despite rushing for only 62 yards, and Kurt Warner was masterful.
The much-maligned Cardinals defense allowed just 128 yards of offense (114 passing, 14 rushing). They’ve let teams rally on them all season long, turning blowouts into close contests, but they shut down Seattle in this one. (5-5)
Bills 16, Jets 13, OT (NY Jets, -9.5)
Mark Sanchez looked every bit the overwhelmed rookie, as he threw five interceptions, negating a wonderful day by the Jets’ running backs. Thomas Jones racked up 210 yards on 22 carries, and Leon Washington had 99 yards on 15 carries. The Jets as a whole rushed for 310 yards, and lost the game. When the playoff picture comes into focus later in the season, Jets fans may look at this game as the one that puts them on the outside-looking-in.
It was remarkable for Buffalo to win the game with starting QB Trent Edwards knocked out in the first quarter. Buffalo took advantage of the Jets’ turnovers though, scoring 13 of their 16 points following miscues. (5-6)
Patriots 59, Titans 0 (Tennessee, +9.5)
Remember the Titans?
They’re a shell of their former selves now. And I think it’s worth wondering if this is the beginning of the end of Jeff Fisher’s days as coach. The Titans failed to develop Vince Young as a starting NFL quarterback. Tennessee doesn’t have a single play-making receiver on their roster. Their defense, since Albert Haynesworth and former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz left, has turned into 11 matadors. It’s amazing this team won 13 games last season.
Meanwhile, after leaving some points on the field against the Broncos last week, the Patriots made sure to score as much as they could. It’s as if they were trying to impress the BCS voters or something the way they rolled up 59 points on the Titans. Plus, there was a Laurence Maroney sighting! (5-7)
Falcons 21, Bears 14 (Atlanta, -3)
The Bears contained Michael Turner. They forced Matt Ryan to throw two interceptions and the Falcons were only able to gain 185 yards through the air. The Bears outgained the Falcons by 120 yards. Chicago should have won.
However, the Bears made too many of their own mistakes and all of them were seemingly inside the Falcons’ 10 yard line. Jay Cutler threw an interception from the Atlanta 9-yard line. Matt Forte coughed up the ball to the Falcons from the Atlanta 1-yard line. Then, on the Bears’ last drive, future Hall of Fame LT Orlando Pace made a rookie mistake, moving before the snap on 4th-and-1 from the Falcons’ five-yard line.
The Falcons did not play well at all, and they survived. The Bears need to get their running game going if they’re going to continue to contend for a playoff spot this season. Otherwise, they will watch the playoffs from the comforts of their respective living rooms. (6-7)
Broncos 34, Chargers 23 (Denver, +4)
The main thing that killed the Chargers’ chances in this game was the adjustments the Broncos made on defense after halftime.
After allowing 20 points and over 200 yards of offense to the Chargers in the first half, the Broncos limited San Diego to three second half points and 143 yards of total offense. Phillip Rivers was sacked five times, three times in the fourth quarter, and it seemed as if every time he was hit, the ball fell from his hands.
To the Chargers’ credit, they did a fair job on the Broncos’ running backs, holding them to a 3.1 yards-per-carry average and 101 yards. However, the Broncos played mistake-free football, they held the ball for much of the second half, and Kyle Orton made several key throws to keep drives alive.
Also, Eddie Royal returned a kick and a punt each for touchdowns in the first half, a week after coach Josh McDaniels was critical of the special teams.
Now, Denver is three games into the “difficult” portion of their schedule. They’re 3-0 as underdogs thus far in that stretch, with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego, then the NY Giants all ahead. I wonder how many more of those upcoming games will feature the Broncos as underdogs.
As for San Diego, let’s face it:
he Chargers are shadows of their former selves. LaDainian Tomlinson showed some flashes of his prime form, but he’s in no condition to be a featured back in the NFL any longer. Shawne Merriman hasn’t been a force on defense all season. The offensive line doesn’t open up running lanes. Plus, Norv Turner looks like a Dead Man Walking with all the big-name retreads laying in wait for a prime gig.
The glory days appear to be over in San Diego. Then again, was there ever any glory to be had? (7-7)
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Spread ‘Em: NFL Week Five Picks
Published: October 9, 2009
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I was back on track last week, going 9-5 in the games played. It would be nice to have back-to-back strong showings to build on my 37-25 record on the season.
As always, I base my picks on flawed logic, personal opinion, age-old gambling trends, and matchups. If you’re looking for high-end analysis…I do what I can with what I’ve been blessed with.
Here now are the week five picks, with the home team in bold. Picks are for entertainment purposes only, of course.
Minnesota (-10) over St. Louis
A small part of me wanted to pick the Rams in this one. There will be a natural letdown from Brett Favre and his teammates because they won’t be pitted against the Green Bay Packers this week. Additionally, the Vikings played their last game on Monday Night Football at home, giving them a short week to prepare and travel.
Upon further review though, the Rams have scored 24 points on the season, and have been outscored through the first four weeks by a combined 84 points. They’ve been shutout twice already and, given the quality of their opponent this week, could be in for another blowout loss.
Vikings, 31-6
Dallas (-8.5) over Kansas City
After getting outmuscled and outplayed in Denver last week, the Cowboys move on to Arrowhead Stadium, another tough venue for a visiting team to play in. However, the Chiefs are not talented enough to challenge the Cowboys. Dallas will likely have Marion Barber closer to full strength in this game, which should allow the Cowboys to grind out a large chunk of yards on the ground, putting Tony Romo in more favorable passing situations.
I would not be stunned to see the Chiefs keep this game close; there is talent on Kansas City that is developing and improving. The Cowboys should come into this game looking to atone for last week though, and they may put this one away early.
Cowboys, 27-13
Carolina (-3.5) over Washington
I was torn in making a pick for this game. The Redskins were recently placed on my “Do Not Bet On” list, based on their poor performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week four. Carolina, thanks to their turnover-prone QB Jake Delhomme, has not proven to be a safe pick this year either.
Ultimately, I am taking Carolina because the Panthers have two things working in their favor:
1) They come off the bye week, which means they had extra time to prepare.
2) They are playing the Worst 2-2 Team In NFL History, the 2009 Redskins.
When I write that I rely on age-old gambling trends, I don’t joke: teams that host games following their bye week usually cover the spread. Hello Carolina!
Panthers, 24-14
Philadelphia (-15) over Tampa Bay
This game feels like a high school homecoming game. Remember the homecoming game? The home team almost always scheduled a doormat for homecoming so that they could have a guaranteed win on the schedule for all the alumni to enjoy.
There’s more to this pick than the whole “homecoming game” vibe. The Eagles will benefit from coming off the bye week and hosting this game. They will be well-rested. Donovan McNabb will play, and Brian Westbrook will be the healthiest he’s been all year.
Picking a team that’s favored by 15 points though, whether they are home or away, means the bettor has absolutely no faith in the ability of the underdog to cover the spread. That’s exactly how I feel about the Buccaneers, who have yet to show they can stop the run, stop the pass, or move the ball effectively to build sustained drives on offense.
Eagles, 34-9
NY Giants (-15.5) over Oakland
The over/under on men doing yard work during the early games on the NFL schedule this week is 45 million. I’m taking the over. Man, there are some ugly games on the docket.
I digress…
My only fear about picking the Giants is that I do so without knowing that Eli Manning will play. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants held Manning out of this one and used David Carr as the quarterback, knowing that they can win regardless of who’s under center. Of course, for the sake of the spread, and my pick, I’m rooting for Eli to play. Otherwise, this may be a wasted pick. It’s a risk I’m willing to take though.
Giants, 31-10
Cleveland (+6) over Buffalo
The Browns nearly pulled off an upset over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, and may pull off the feat this week in Buffalo, thanks in large part to the Braylon Edwards deal.
Oh, don’t get me wrong: Edwards was the Browns’ most talented offensive player. However, I found it odd last week when he didn’t catch a single ball last week from Derek Anderson, a quarterback that had developed a strong rapport with on the field. Then, Edwards wound up on the police blotter and, about 24 hours later, he wound up in a Jets uniform via trade. It’s enough to make one wonder if the Browns’ front office should apply for a spot in the Guinness Book of World Records in the category of “Fastest Disassociation with Soon-to-Be Suspended Receiver in NFL History.”
Free of the burden of Braylon Edwards now, perhaps the Browns march into Orchard Park, NY, and surprise the Bills. Addition by subtraction? When one is making a pick between two teams in tailspins, one looks for any edge they can think of. So, I’ll go with the “Better Without Braylon” angle.
Browns, 17-14
Cincinnati (+8.5) over Baltimore
When I made my decision on which team to pick in this game, I used the following logic: is it easier to make a case for a Bengals upset, or a Ravens blowout win?
The Ravens could come into this game with something to prove; several members of the team believe they should have beaten the Patriots last week. A fired-up Ravens’ defense could spell doom for the Bengals.
While I fully expect the Ravens to win this game, I think the Bengals’ defense is better than in years past and, quite possibly, it can limit what the Ravens can do offensively. Additionally, the Ravens can be scored upon, and the Bengals have a quality offense.
Looks like the case for a close, competitive game wins.
Ravens, 24-20
Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit
The emergence of Rashard Mendenhall against the San Diego Chargers last week revitalized the Steelers’ running game. Now, with Mendenall the lead back, the Steelers have a full complement of offensive weapons. They should have little trouble scoring points this week.
The Lions are a work in progress. They are a better football team compared to last season, but remain young, inexperienced, and lacking in talent in some key areas. They may make a few plays in this one, but I don’t expect a close contest.
Steelers, 31-14
Atlanta (+2.5) over San Francisco
The Falcons come into this game fresh off the bye week. Their running game, which was their bread-and-butter last season, has struggled thus far. I’m sure a good portion of the last two weeks was spent figuring out ways to create holes for RB Michael Turner. As good as the 49ers are against the run, I believe he’ll have his best day of the young 2009 season.
Atlanta’s defense, which has given up nearly 400 yards per game, should benefit from missing 49ers star RB Frank Gore, who is out with an ankle injury. Glenn Coffee is a solid backup to Gore, but the Falcons will likely make QB Shaun Hill beat them by passing the ball.
I expect a close game; the 49ers have a playoff-caliber defense themselves. However, I think the 49ers’ lack of playmakers on offense will cost them.
Falcons, 24-21
Denver (+3) over New England
Both the Broncos and Patriots come into this game with something to prove.
For the Patriots, they need to prove that their revamped defense (4th in yards allowed per game) is playoff-caliber. Tom Brady, four games into his comeback from missing the 2008 season, needs to prove that he can make plays in the face of a high-quality defense, something he wasn’t able to do against the Jets in week two.
The Denver Broncos need to prove they can withstand the rigors of their upcoming schedule. The defense needs to show it can slow down Brady and a talented offense. Ultimately, the Broncos need to win this game to not only prove the remaining naysayers they are for real, but to build on their current 3-0 record within the AFC.
Denver won’t go 16-0. However the combination of being at home, playing great defense, and remaining mistake-free on offense will be too much for the Patriots to overcome.
Broncos, 21-17
Arizona (-5.5) over Houston
The Cardinals are another team coming off a bye week and hosting a game. I find it difficult to bet against teams in this situation, no matter how they’ve played thus far in the season.
Both these teams have struggled at various times and are, in many ways, similar. Neither of these team have done well running the ball; both teams are pass-oriented on offense. Neither team can stop the opposition from effectively moving the ball through the air. This has all the makings of being a shootout.
One key difference though is in run defense, where the Cardinals have limited opponents to a shade under 80 yards per game, while the Texans give up an average of 165 yards per game. With two weeks off to game-plan for the Texans, this could be a breakout game for the Cardinals’ running backs.
Cardinals, 27-20
Jacksonville (+1) over Seattle
Just two weeks ago, I was of the belief the Jaguars were reeling. Two weeks later, the Jags have won two in a row and, looking ahead, could conceivably be 6-2 heading into their matchup with the NY Jets in week 10. My, how things have changed.
The Seahawks are vulnerable in this game because they struggle at stopping the run, and the Jaguars boast the dynamic running back, Maurice Jones-Drew. While Matt Hasselbeck returns to start at QB for Seattle, he isn’t bringing a star running back or a dynamic passing game with him.
Jaguars, 28-21
Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee
I was surprised to see the spread was so low for this game. It’s as if Las Vegas is still setting the lines based on last year still (see Broncos vs. Patriots as another example).
The Colts are 4-0; the Titans are 0-4. Peyton Manning is off to one of the best starts of his career, while Kerry Collins looks like a journeyman QB hanging on by a thread to his starting job. The Colts’ offense is gaining over 400 yards per game. The Titans’ defense is among the league’s worst to this point.
I suppose if Tennessee won their next 12 games, they have a shot at the playoffs. Don’t look for that to happen though, because their schedule is brutal.
Colts, 27-18
Miami (+2) over NY Jets
The Dolphins thumped the Buffalo Bills last week. The Jets held their own against the Saints but, ultimately, came up short.
So far this season, the Dolphins have been significantly better at home this year. In addition to their rout of Buffalo, they nearly knocked off the Colts in a well-played week two loss. Miami will look to run the ball, control the time of possession, and try not to make any turnovers.
As well as the Jets have played in the early going, this will be an important game for this team. Like the Baltimore Ravens teams of a few years ago, the defense will carry the Jets as far as they will go. The Jets need to be challenged and face some adversity. Miami will happily provide the Jets what they need, and more.
Dolphins, 20-13
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Things To Do in Denver When You Draft
Published: April 22, 2009
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What isn’t known is what the new front office in Denver will do with those 10 picks. Early speculation had the Broncos trading up to pursue Mark Sanchez, the QB from USC. Other possibilities had Denver trading up to pick B.J. Raji, the DT from Boston College, or Brian Orakpo, the DE from Texas.
What no one is thinking of are the trade options Denver possesses on its roster. While it seems unlikely the Broncos would add to their 2009 draft haul through trades, the roster needs an overhaul, especially on the defensive side.
With the Broncos switching to a three-four defensive gameplan, there are several square pegs on the roster that will not fit into the round holes Denver is planning on defense: Elvis Dumervil, Tim Crowder, and Jarvis Moss. They were all drafted by Mike Shanahan with the intention of playing in a four-three scheme. All three of them are potential trade bait, if it is determined they don’t fit in the new defensive game plan.
The possibility exists that Denver could target veteran a veteran defensive tackle in a trade also, especially if some of the desired first round targets are scooped up before the Broncos make their first selection. Shawn Rogers’ name has been linked with the Broncos in the past, notably when the rumored Jay Cutler-to-Cleveland scenario seemed like it was going to happen. Could the Broncos send the Browns a third round pick for Rogers over the weekend?
Two more names that could surface in trade talks this weekend are Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. With word that Braylon Edwards may not be traded, and Anquan Boldin likely too expensive for many teams, the Broncos could dangle Marshall for an incentive-based trade. Would it be worth it to a Super Bowl-calibre team such as the New York Giants, to surrender a third round pick in 2010 this weekend for Marshall, with the idea that the pick could turn into something more, should Marshall put up big numbers?
Scheffler is another trade possibility for two reasons. One, because the draft-eligible tight ends are weak. Two, Scheffler’s agent is Bus Cook, the man who got between Jay Cutler and the Denver Broncos. If hard feelings exist between Cook and the Broncos, Scheffler could be moved quickly over the weekend, especially if Tony Gonzalez doesn’t get traded by the Kansas City Chiefs.
My gut feeling is that the Broncos will trade for Rogers or another veteran run-stuffer whose name has yet to surface, likely surrendering a third round pick to make that happen. One of the Broncos’ holdovers I mentioned will also be dealt. If Denver nabs a WR on the first day, expect a Marshall deal to follow.
I also believe the Broncos have their sights set on one of three defensive players (Orakpo, Tyson Jackson from LSU, Rey Maualuga from USC) and they will use whatever ammunition they have to move up and make it happen, if they need to.
I know the Broncos will pick a QB, but not likely on the first day. Rhett Bomar’s name has been mentioned quite a bit as a late round pick, and he makes a lot of sense. Keep an eye on Stephen McGee from Texas A&M, as well.
Denver lacks a running back who can be counted on for 300 or more touches, so expect the Broncos to target someone who can complement their current stable of veterans and holdovers. Javon Ringer from Michigan State could be a real possibility.
My best guess is as good as anyone else’s. Feel free to leave your thoughts on this.
