Starting Four: A Comparison of Bronco Quarterbacks

Over the course of the summer, I have been surprised at the vast number of articles written against Denver. Of course, the arguments rage around two of the biggest switches in the league this year. The hiring of HC Josh McDaniels and trade of Jay Cutler for Kyle Orton (and some draft picks) have combined to make for a good topic.

However, a lot of the arguments are based on opinion, whether you think the changes help or hurt the team. What do statistical facts tell?

In order to compare the two QBs, I have also added the 2005 Broncos under Jake Plummer and the 1993 Broncos under John Elway.

Both Plummer and Elway led their teams to playoff appearances. Culter and Orton did not. So what makes for a playoff QB?

 

Jake Plummer: Plummer was, by many statistics, the best QB Denver has had. Of the four, he has the highest average at 7.4 yards. He completed 277 passes for 3366 yards. He also threw for 18 touchdowns. Most importantly, he threw only seven interceptions.

Jay Cutler: Cutler was outstanding at some points, but dismal at others. He averaged a very respectable 7.35 yards. His 62.5 percent completion was the best on the list. Jay also threw 25 touchdowns due to the massive 616 attempts.

Kyle Orton: Orton has some poor stats, though he did lack the receiver strength that the other three QBs had. He was lowest in average, managing only 6.39 yards. He completed 272 passes and earned a 58.5 completion percentage. Kyle also had 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

John Elway: The comparison could not be complete without the best QB to play for Denver, using the best season the team had. He had a 7.2 average. He completed 280 passes, but had a mere 55.8 completion percentage. However, he was a scoring machine, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions.

With such a wide range of stats, it can seem difficult to determine advantages amongst the QBs. However, I broke down the stats to determine how each would do if they threw 500 passes.

 

Jake Plummer: Plummer would complete 304 passes, throw 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He would also gather 3,700 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:25.33 and an INT ratio of 1:65.143.

Jay Cutler: Cutler would complete 312 passes, throw 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. He would throw for 3,675 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:24.64 and an INT ratio of 1:34.22.

Kyle Orton: Orton would complete 293 passes, throw 19 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He would also get 3,195 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:25.83 and an INT ratio of 1:38.75.

John Elway: Elway would complete 279 passes, throw 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He would gain 3,600 yards. He has a TD ratio of 1:18.593 and an INT ratio of 1:45.63.

 

So now you can each QBs stats. It should seem clear that Cutler is not the best QB Denver had, nor would he be second (behind Elway). His stats show that he belongs third, or in some stats, fourth on the list.

It seems that the best QBs do not throw for huge yardage, nor do they necessarily have high completion percentages. The QBs that led their team to the playoffs capitalized on opportunities, and did not throw interceptions.

Now, I know some people will blame the defense, the coach, the run game, or some other factor of the game that is not the QB. Sure the defense kept Denver out of the playoffs last year. However, it is still clear that the best QBs have certain strong points. Cutler was lacking on several of those.

Orton also is not the best at some of those strengths seen in the playoff QBs, but he has some areas that look good. He throws less interceptions than Cutler. Blame can also be placed on his O-Line, or the average at best receivers he had, but I will not debate those points now.

You’ve seen what makes a strong QB. The stats are there and show what each QB is. They show the players for who they truly are, and not for who they have been said they are.

New Broncos Show a Promising Future

Last year’s promising season was spoiled by a weak and lagging defense. This off season, many changes have been made, on both sides of the ball, that will help Denver improve dramatically. I will not say if the time is this year or next, or later, but with the changes made, Denver looks primed to take over the AFC West.

A few key factors that could help them achieve this are:

Management:

The big deal this off season has been firing Mike Shanahan and hiring Josh McDaniels, who was New England’s offensive coordinator. It is hard to predict how he will handle being a head coach, but looking back may help.

He is, without question, a good coach for the offense. Look at what he has done with the Pats. He knows how to run an offense and has set about building it up.

Defense is the main concern of this franchise. Strong defensive coaching is mandatory. San Francisco 49ers’ coach Mike Nolan, has been called in to bring the defense up to par. To do this, he has brought in the 3-4 scheme to allow for a new type of pressure and better pass defense.

QBs:

No one can talk about the Denver Broncos without talking about the loss of Jay Cutler and the addition of Bears QB Kyle Orton. Orton is a considerable downgrade from the strong-armed Cutler. He has a weak arm and is not very mobile. Is he a bad player? Just the opposite, actually Orton excels at accurate, short-range pass attacks to move the ball. A strong O-line means that mobility isn’t a major concern. McDaniels is sure to create a west coast style short-pass game to play to Orton’s strengths.

RBs:

Last year’s running game was good, but overshadowed by a dominating pass game. This year, it is hard to say how the run game will play with no returning backs, but it can be assumed they will do better. This year, they have gone out of their way to get RBs to help them out. First-round pick Moreno will see most of the carries and will do great if his college record shows any hint of what is to come. He had an outstanding two-year college career and posted some great stats.

Buckhalter is a seasoned veteran who has been in the league a while. His experience makes him a very solid second back who can get good yards when Moreno is out.

WRs/TEs:

It’s hard to say how the receiving game will play out with Marshall’s status being unknown. So we will assume he won’t be with the team.

Royal would step up and become the No. 1 WR for Orton and would run a lot of quick slants, looking for holes where he can get the ball and turn up field. The other WRs would prove adequate for the job. One player will emerge as the best of them and make a good second option.

Scheffler will be the starting TE and makes for a strong receiver in the flats, on the sidelines, or over the middle. At 6’5″, 250 lbs, he makes for a big target wherever he runs his routes.

Defensive Line:

The switch from a 4-3 to 3-4 leaves Denver in need of some big linemen. I don’t know who’s going to get the starting three positions so I can’t comment much on how they will do. But they will need to improve from last year. They had no pressure and could not stop the run so they need to get physical.

LBs:

D.J. Williams has an ILB spot and will be a force stopping the run and playing coverage over the middle. He is fast enough to get to the flats and cover RBs so he is one of the most useful players on the defense.

Dumerville will most likely play weak OLB and get to blitz. A change from DE, it will interesting to see how he adapts to the new position. But he will mainly be a player who can move around and rush the QB, trying to create pressure from the blindside. And we know he can pass rush.

Jarvis Moss will probably be the other OLB and play more man coverage against the TE or FB. His coverage skills are unknown so it is unsure as to how well he can cover these players.

DBs:

This is where the most changes have been made. Champ Bailey is one of the best CBs in the league, and his knowledge will help him excel against some of the best WRs. Alphonso Smith (drafted in first round) could very well become the other CB. In college, he was a force and didn’t allow a score against him. Pretty good, right? For a rookie, he has a long career ahead of him.

The safety position is where it’s at. There were two big problems the defense had last year. One, they couldn’t get in the backfield, stopping the run and pressuring the QB. The other problem was a lack of turnovers. The changes to the safeties have brought in ball hawks that can deliver punishing hits as well as force turnovers.

Brian Dawkins is a seasoned veteran with a lot of years under his belt and brings experience. Plus, he is a beast. Dawkins knows how to play and can get things done. Plus, he would make a great mentor to young safeties. If I had young players and wanted to bring in a guy who could teach them, Dawkins would probably be one or two. Didn’t Denver draft two safeties this year?

As for the rookie safeties, they can play and will learn under Dawkins. They are strong players who have a nose for the ball and have a way of generating turnovers. Two great players who can lead the defense for the next several years.

With the many many changes made, on both sides of the ball and in management, Denver is a completely different team. They have the tools to make them powerful for the next decade. Especially in a few years, once the players have developed, Denver will become the dominant team in the division and should see a few years in the playoffs.

Broncos Name Starting QB, Look To Move Forward

This offseason has not been one of Denver’s smoothest. Between a coach being fired and the franchise QB being traded, the Broncos have been in disarray. However, coach Josh McDaniels has officially named Orton the starting QB. Not that anyone was surprised. Few thought Simms could actually take the job.

But what does this mean now for the Bronco organization? There are several reasons why Orton has been named starter now and why this is great news for the fans.

First off, if means that Orton is getting the playbook down. Don’t overlook this. What McDaniels is saying when announcing this decision is that Orton looks like he knows what he is doing and can lead the team. If Orton were not absorbing the playbook, McD would hold off on the announcing. So it seems like he has it under his belt, the first step in leading Denver to success.

Second, it means that Denver is ready to move on. I think this is McD’s main reason for announcing the starter. He is trying to convey that, despite the turmoil in losing Cutler, Denver is onto another chapter. The Broncos put Cutler behind them and are now focused on being great with Orton as QB. McD wants the fans to know this. He wants to tell them that Denver has moved on, Cutler is a thing of the past.

So the first position battle has been decided. With this we can pretty much figure out the offense now. We know Orton is the QB, and we know who the line will be. No one will dispute that Marshall should be the No. 1 WR and Royal being a great No. 2. Scheffler will be the TE, and there is your offense.

Defense still has battles though. Among the guaranteed starters are D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey. Dumervil should be one of rushing LBs. The biggest question now is the D-backs. Who will be the No. 2 CB and who will be the safeties.

In all, naming Orton as the starting QB is a great thing for Denver. They are stepping out of hole that they made and have declared that from now on, it is nothing but moving forward.

Josh McDaniels: Success or Failure?

After Denver Bronco owner Pat Bowlen fired Mike Shanahan, the search for a new head coach began.  After taking into consideration all possible options, it was decided that New England’s offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would be the best option.

The decision to hire McDaniels was met with mixed feelings.  Some thought he would be the guy who could turn around a struggling team, primarily on defense, and make them into the playoff-caliber team they once were.  Others looked at the situation and questioned whether McDaniels knew what to do to turn the team around.

More people began to question this new coach after a dispute with franchise QB Jay Cutler led to his trade to Chicago in return Kyle Orton and several draft picks.  However, he would get a chance to prove his worth in the NFL draft.

Going into the draft, the main concern most fans had was the defensive line.  Last year’s line was one of the worst in the league, and the defense finished 29th overall.  It was apparent that Denver needed some new players.  With the switch to the 3-4, finding players who knew the scheme was also important.

McDaniels, however, had other things on his mind.  For his first pick, not only did he skip D-line, but the entire defense as well, going instead with RB Knowshon Moreno.  Now, Moreno is good, and a lot of the good linemen were taken, but there were still some players who could help turn the defense around.

For his second pick, McDaniels came did draft a D-lineman in Robert Ayers.  However, Ayers is a 4-3 lineman and has no experience for the 3-4.  But it is a step in the right direction.

The third pick is one of the most questioned, with Alphonso Smith being taken.  Now, Smith is a very good CB but does not help improve Denver’s poor defense.  And to get him, Denver traded one of their first round picks next year, as well as a third round this year, to Seattle.

Pick No. 4 was safety Darcel McBath, a player that can help out a lot in the secondary in a few years.  But by this time, people were beginning to wonder.  Surely McDaniels would pick someone who could help on the D-line.  Or at least maybe a LB.  Those were the two most crucial positions.

The fifth pick was the worst of the draft, TE Richard Quinn, a blocking tight end, something Denver has zero use for, at least with defense being a problem.

The sixth pick McDaniels had would also be the last defensive player he would pick.  safety David Bruton was picked, a follow-up to McBath.

There is no need to mention the rest of the picks.  Denver needed defensive linemen who knew and were successful in the 3-4.  They did not fill that need.

Now, serious questions are being raised about McDaniels.  Can he lead the team?  Does he know what he’s doing?

There is still potential for McDaniels to prove himself as a good head coach.  It will be difficult considering the decisions he has made so far.  However, Bowlen is willing to give him a chance and so should the fans.

Bronco Draft Picks Look to Make an Impact

The Denver Broncos had several needs to fill before the preseason began. Those holes were filled by a very good draft in which Denver had several good picks, including two in the first round. These rookies are reporting to camp looking come in and make a big difference for the team. Coach McD thinks that these are the best players for the changes to be made. These players have very high expectations. Among the new guys are RB Knowshon Moreno, CB Alphonso Smith, and QB Tom Brandstater. All are thought to become leaders, maybe not the first year, but definitely in the long run.

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