The Jig Is Up: Denver Broncos’ Offense Getting Too Predictable

As much as everyone in Bronco Nation wanted the win streak to continue all season, last week’s sobering loss at the hands of the Ravens made clear that all the tricks and gimmicks of Coach McDaniels’ schemes were getting figured out. Monday night’s game against the Steelers further solidified that. 

Without some deep component to the passing game, the Broncos are in for a rough second half of the season. 

The defensive play of the team is clearly better than last year’s squad, a testament to the coaching prowess of Mike Nolan, ever under-appreciated during his tenure in San Francisco. The defense went stride for stride with Pittsburgh into halftime, something that the 2008 defense could’ve only dreamed of. But no defense can be expected to win a game while being complemented with a three-and-out offense.

Not to take away from Pittsburgh’s stout defensive effort, but the Broncos flaccid offense was the reason the Steelers were able to come away with the win. Some observations on the offense thus far:

(1) We have two run plays: a single back dive with or without TE motion, and an I-dive with or without motion. It seems to be lost upon Coach McDaniels that there are other running lanes than up the middle. While none of the running backs are outright burners, an outside run could net a huge gain simply because no one thinks Denver will ever try it.

(2) Kyle Orton is generally accurate, but can’t throw past 15 yards: This one was a given going into the season. I honestly like Orton, especially in light of how harshly he has been compared to Jay Cutler since the trade was announced. But his limitations are now being heavily exploited, and unless McDaniels changes some playcalling and throws deep, there is no reason for any defense to not stack everyone within seven yards of the line, blitz all the time, and bump the receivers off their routes. Orton can’t run well enough to make defenses pay for doing this either.

(3) We seem to have about two pass plays as well: The RB/WR screen pass has been gobbled up each of the last two weeks by talented defenses. Used sparingly, its a good utility play with the potential for huge gains. Used several times a week, it has become predictable, especially since the entire defense is playing up anyway. The other route is to send Marshall, Royal, or Stokely on a slant and hope they get a step. I guess you could conceivably call the lobbed jump-balls to Marshall a play too, but after Troy Polamalu nearly took it out of Marshall’s hands this week, McDaniels needs to scrap that one for a while too.

(4) Our offensive line gets scared by the hype, and then dominated: The Ravens and Steelers both have a solid front seven, but by the way our offensive line let rushers through all game long, you would’ve thought Orton a tackling dummy. 

When the receivers get bumped off their routes, Orton has a bad habit of second-guessing himself, where he telegraphs where he wants to go with the ball with a half-hearted pump fake. See the play against Baltimore were poor Knowshon Moreno got lit up by safety Ed Reed because Orton practically shouted he was dumping it off to the flat.

I want to see some of last year’s top performers get back in the mix, namely Peyton Hillis and Tony Scheffler. I can’t comprehend why Hillis isn’t getting more use in short yardage than he was last year (other than if its just because he is Shanahan’s guy).  And Scheffler has the speed to get open, and the size to out-leap most defenders. 

Furthermore, I don’t think that Knowshon Moreno has had a run longer than 10-12 yards all season long. For a guy who was touted as the top RB in the draft, I want to see more out of him. Terrell Davis was much less lauded and a late round pick. I know Moreno’s still a rookie, but I haven’t seen much of the explosive playmaking ability that was constantly on display in his college days.

A 6-2 start is still a great for a team that was given an ice cube’s chance in hell this season. And with games against Washington, Oakland, and two against Kansas City, Denver is still a lock in my mind for at least a 10-6 finish. But Baltimore and Pittsburgh have now clearly exposed the way to beat Denver’s offense. It’s time for Kid Belichick to get a little creative and expand that playbook.

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Hate To Say “I Told You So,” Denver Broncos Open 2-0

Amidst the offseason turmoil that dominated any and all press concerning the Denver Broncos, the consensus opinion emerged that Denver was in a “rebuilding stage” and that coach Josh McDaniels wouldn’t last more than one season. 

One major poll on ESPN projected Denver to win just three games all season.  If that is to be the case, then the Broncos will have to close 1-13 after their solid 27-6 handling of the Cleveland Browns.

In all fairness, the Bengals and Browns are not playoff-caliber squads, so Denver’s early season success should of course be taken with a grain of salt.  But it seems that Denver’s consistent, blue-collar schemes don’t have the flair that most major networks and commentators want to talk about. 

Jay Cutler gave them fireworks, big plays and touchdown passes that made weekly highlight reels.  But he also gave up way too many red-zone interceptions and wore his defense out by putting them on the field for 35-40 minutes per game.

Kyle Orton’s journeyman success on the other hand, will continue to be ignored.  No one is going to mistake his skill set for Jay Cutler’s.  But Orton has eclipsed 200 yards passing in both contests, and more importantly, has managed both wins without throwing any interceptions. His patience has prevented costly turnovers, gave the defense time to rest and kept the Broncos in the game.

Denver’s run game is still taking time to develop, as aside from Correll Buckhalter’s late 45-yard TD scamper, Denver hasn’t had any explosiveness to their ground attack.  Knowshon Moreno has been battling injuries and needs to show that he was worth a first-round selection as he has split time with the veteran Buckhalter.

The committee approach this week by Denver bared a strong resemblance to McDaniels’ New England heritage, with Peyton Hillis and Lamont Jordan getting some situational snaps as well.

Something to consider is that the Denver run game may produce less this year as defenses dare Orton to throw against thin secondaries that load the box.  This could come back to hurt them however as the Broncos had eight different players register receptions against Cleveland and Cincinnati, with a near even distribution of throws to receivers and RBs/TEs. 

The pass-catching ability of the Broncos TEs and backs cannot be ignored, and McDaniels knows from experience that an offense that uses all its players is more difficult to defend than a team with just one or two main targets.  Despite not having Cutler’s cannon arm, Orton is still more than sufficient at throwing short safe passes that can turn into large gains after the catch.

Lastly, Denver’s defense has made significant strides compared to last year’s squad.  While the defensive line is hardly scary, they have still produced enough pressure to keep the secondary from having to run with receivers for ten seconds every play. 

Additions Andra Davis and Mario Haggan both have made plays in the first two games, and team with Elvis Dumervil and D.J. Williams to form a linebacking unit that is much better than they will get credit for. 

Like the offense, these guys haven’t made a bunch of highlight reel plays, but have played sufficiently well to manage the game and keep the Broncos in contention. 

Next week’s matchup at Oakland will show if the Broncos are going to separate themselves once more from their rival and annual AFC West doormat, or if they will fall victim to the inevitably doomed season most experts have called for. 

After JaMarcus Russell managed to complete only seven passes against an equally lowly Chiefs team, fans have to think that the Broncos have a great chance at opening 3-0, and for the moment, silencing all the doubters. 

At the very least, the Broncos will know they can lose the next 13 and haven’t let any analysts down.

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Three Reasons for Broncos Fans to Be Optimistic About Next Season

For a team that normally kept its head down relative to many other headline-stealing NFL franchises, the Denver Broncos stole this NFL offseason with the Josh McDaniels-Jay Cutler shenanigans that lasted for way longer than anyone other than lazy media types wanted them to.

Now that all that big stuff is out of the way, the sports media world can go back to reporting on how, yet again, T.O. is going to show up late for camp. Snore. Ooh, I know, let’s have another highly irrelevant Michael Vick prison update!

Grumblings aside, I am going to indulge myself (and my newly discovered Broncos comrades here at B/R) with a couple of major reasons why we can be optimistic about the upcoming season.

Four months still feels like way too long to have to wait for football season, so I will take this briefest of moments to plug your local semi-pro team, who is more likely than not in the middle of their season.

Now then, without further ado…

 

1. The defense can only get better

As someone that watched the Broncos when John Elway had no defense behind him, on through the Super Bowl teams whose defenses made the difference, I have seen this unit fluctuate.

Last year’s was just about the worst that I can remember. It was almost as bad as the time no one tagged Marvin Harrison down, and he got back up and ran for a touchdown with three Broncos players right next to him. 

By the numbers, the Broncos allowed 28 points per game (that’s 448 on the season, put the calculator away), placing them just barely ahead of the hapless Detroit Lions and St. Louis Rams squads.

Their 374.6 yards-allowed-per-game ranked them 29th among the 32 NFL franchises. Tragically, this was in just 990 plays from scrimmage, meaning that the Broncos allowed 6.1 yards per play on defense, a tie for 30th in the NFL with the Rams. 

The secondary only snagged six interceptions all season (31st in the league, ahead of only the Lions) and allowed 228.5 yards passing per game, ranking them 26th. The most egregious offender was the consistently ineffective defensive line, where Denver finished 26th in the league in sacks and 27th in total run defense. 

While all the numbers are bad, its fair to extrapolate that the pass defense numbers might’ve been better if opposing quarterbacks hadn’t had 10 seconds on every pass play to find an open target.

The good news begins with the healthy return of Champ Bailey and D.J. Williams, who were lost to injuries for a combined 14 games last season. Superstars count on defense—just ask the Chargers about missing Shawne Merriman.

Brian Dawkins, like John Lynch a few years ago, brings some hard-hitting credibility back to the safety position after the revolving door of second-rate talent that got the starts last year.

It wouldn’t matter if Dawkins was 50, you don’t want to be the slot guy going across the middle when Dawkins is on the prowl. Free agent acquisitions Andra Davis (LB) and Renaldo Hill (S) should be considered at least minimal upgrades over their 2008 predecessors. 

The largest question, and most important answer, though, will be how McDaniels addresses the situation at defensive line. No player stood out more to me than Elvis Dumervil, who tied for first on the team with five sacks despite being more of a situational DE than an every down player.

With the team’s switch to the 3-4, which calls for larger D-linemen, the smallish 5’11” Dumervil will likely become an OLB, and he actually has the speed to compete at this new role. 

Ebenezer Ekuban, the team’s other sack leader, is gone, so Denver will undoubtedly take a good look at the defensive line talent in the early rounds of the 2009 Draft. One or two impact picks on defense and healthier seasons for the remaining starters should move Denver’s defensive numbers back towards the middle of the NFL pack.

2. Peyton Hillis and Ryan Clady

I’m not ashamed to admit that I have a totally hetero man-crush on Peyton Hillis. He is everything that I think an NFL running back should be.

After being under-utilized at Arkansas during his entire career, playing third fiddle to Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, he showed in glimpses last season that he can do it all. Hillis averaged five yards per carry last season as a rookie and led all Bronco rushers with five TDs.

With outstanding speed for his size (6’1″, 250 lbs), he is a near unstoppable short-yardage back that also displayed good hands and playmaking ability after the initial catch.

Tack on the fact that he joined the team as a fullback (read: blocker) and still had the skills to fill in at tailback up until his season-ending injury, and you have a multi-faceted threat that coach Josh McDaniels would be a fool not to utilize next year. Sign this guy to a long-term deal because I see him becoming the next Mike Alstott.

I’m almost equally as jubilant about the early success of Boise State product Ryan Clady. Despite the questions about his size or level of competition in college, Clady silenced the critics with an outstanding rookie outing. 

The Broncos have had a tradition of quality offensive linemen (or at least a great blocking scheme) since their Super Bowl runs in the late 1990s, and Clady should be a mainstay in Denver for years to come. 

I still wouldn’t mind seeing the Broncos pick up at least one or two linemen in the draft for the sake of depth, and McDaniels may look at centers as well if veteran Casey Weigmann decides to take the route of Tom Nalen and hang ’em up after a fine career.

 

3. A young, talented receiving unit

Brandon Marshall’s 104 receptions speak for themselves, but rookie Eddie Royal did a better-than-expected job working as the No. 2 man and return specialist.

His 91 receptions and 980 yards are a great season by NFL standards, and with Marshall garnering more attention than ever, Royal should easily surpass 1,000 yards receiving this upcoming season in McDaniel’s system. 

Tight end Tony Scheffler has yet to reach his full potential, and that’s saying something considering he caught 40 passes for 645 yards and three scores last year. A big target at 6’5″, and with plenty of speed for the position, I expect him to continue to post good numbers while the ever-reliable Daniel Graham specializes in blocking.

Aside from the youthful trio of Marshall, Royal, and Scheffler, the Broncos also return one of the best slot receivers in recent years, Brandon Stokley.

While he isn’t getting any younger at 32 years of age, McDaniels’ three and four wide receiver sets should still give him plenty of opportunities to catch underneath routes and work the ball up the field.

One exciting possibility is that the Broncos draft another big WR (6’3″+) in the mold of Brandon Marshall to put opposite of him, with Royal and Stokley in slot positions working the underneath.

While critics have harshly attacked Kyle Orton as not being nearly as good as Jay Cutler, it’s hard to imagine even an average quarterback not having success with so many good targets all over the field.

 

Reasons for worry…?

Aside from the obvious fact that no one is going to mistake Kyle Orton or Chris Simms for Jay Cutler, a better defensive showing and a healthier backfield are the only major obstacles to a successful 2009. 

Elway made the QB position a glamorous one in Denver, and everyone up to (and possibly even including) Cutler has fallen short of the mark. Denver fans should realize that Orton or Simms, whomever the 2009 starter may be, will not be asked to do things outside of their ability in McDaniels’ scheme.

It’s tough to digest that we might not have a true gunslinger taking the snaps, but you’ll be thanking the decisions when one of these guys doesn’t force a fourth quarter red zone interception that costs the Broncos a game.

Mentioned earlier is the fact that defensive line will be the Broncos’ greatest draft need, but with the 12th and 18th picks in the first round, one would think that Denver will still have their choice among a number of great defensive prospects that could play and contribute immediately.

As for the running game, a number of hyped but somewhat unproven options populate the backfield.

It is inconceivable to think that Denver will experience a repeat of last year, with almost the entire backfield ending up on the injured reserve, so one or two of these guys should emerge, and combined should challenge Denver’s cumulative total of 1,862 yards rushing last year.

While the loss of Cutler undoubtedly hurts passing production, even a moderately upgraded defense, better run production, and the advantage of playing the Raiders and Chiefs twice a year should mean that Denver has a great chance at 8-8, if not much better.

BroncosZone Latest

• The Denver Broncos Must Face Their New Reality
• Denver Broncos: The Beginning of a New Era, Or The Beginning of the End?
• Hey Denver, Where’s the Love for Josh McDaniels?
• Josh McDaniels Is the Poster Boy for “Too Much, Too Soon”
• Denver Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall: “I Love Being a Bronco”