The Jay Cutler Trade Is Complete: Who Won?

It’s official; the Jay Cutler trade has been fully completed.

Don’t believe me?  The Broncos were wheeling-and-dealing on draft day.  They now have only six picks in next year’s draft; they traded away their own first round pick and their own fifth round pick.  They still have the Bears’ first round pick, but the odds are that will be no higher in the order than the Broncos’ natural pick…and quite possibly far lower.

Here are the moves the Broncos made that relate to the Cutler trade:

Drafted Robert Ayers (DE, Tennessee) with the Bears pick.  By all indications, Ayers is a strong talent, although he really did not turn it on until his senior season.  Still, he was what the Broncos wanted to play end/undertackle in their new 3-4 scheme.

Traded their own 2010 first round draft choice to Seattle for the No. 37 pick in the 2009 draft, used to select Alphonso Smith (CB, Wake Forest):  Everyone agrees with the fact that if the Broncos did not have the Bears’ first-round choice in 2010, this trade would not have happened.  So it relates to the Cutler trade.

First, as to Smith, he is a corner with great ball skills (20 collegiate INTs, a huge number) that may be best suited to zone/cover two coverage, as his reduced size means he will have to play off larger receivers.  The Broncos had a first-round grade on him, so they were willing to give up a first-round pick to get him.

The issue comes in the actual pick they traded.  When Josh McDaniels and his partner-in-crime, GM Brian Xanders, spoke with Seahawks GM Tim Ruskell, the Broncos initially offered Seattle the Bears’ first-round choice, or the lower of the two first-round picks in 2010.

The clock was ticking.

Ruskell was happy to take C Max Unger from Oregon with the No. 37 pick, so his inclination to move was not significant.  Sensing the Broncos’ strong desire to move into that slot, Ruskell demanded the Broncos’ own first-round choice. 

Denver was initially reluctant; Ruskell stood his ground.  Denver caved and gave Ruskell the pick he wanted.  This is all documented in the Denver Post, in case anyone questions this account.

As the second round went on, Seattle saw Unger still on the board.  Around this time, Chicago GM Jerry Angelo had targeted two players with the Bears’ second-round choice, the 49th pick: WR Brian Robiskie from Ohio State, or S Mike Mitchell from Ohio.  Robiskie went 39th to Cleveland, prompting Angelo and his staff to start working the phones to see what they could get in a trade for the 49th pick.

Ruskell informed the Bears they could have Seattle’s third and fourth round selections (early picks in both rounds) for the 49th pick.  Angelo apparently told Ruskell that if their guy was gone (their guy being Mike Mitchell at this point), the Bears would do the trade.

Enter the Cryptkeeper, Al Davis.  To the derision of many, the Raiders took Mitchell with the 47th pick—after Angelo had called Mitchell to tell him the Bears would take him at No. 49.  Mitchell was now gone, so the trade went through.

Seattle took Unger with the 49th pick.  By waiting 12 spots, Seattle got their guy and turned a high third and high fourth into the Broncos’ first round choice next year. 

Meanwhile, Angelo drafted two defensive linemen (pool jumper-outer and WAC Defensive Player of the Year Jarron Gilbert from San Jose St., as well as former fullback Herny Melton from Texas).  Gilbert is regarded as a steal by many draft observers—he apparently lasted until round three due to concerns about WAC competition.  We shall see.

The Broncos trade up into the end of round two to select TE Richard Quinn from North Carolina: Using their own third round pick and the Bears’ third round pick acquired in the Cutler trade, the Broncos grabbed Quinn, a primarily blocking TE.  I say this because Quinn had all of 12 career receptions in college.

The Broncos also got a very low fourth round choice in this trade, which became G Seth Olson from Iowa, but they also dealt their fifth in 2010 later in the draft, so I feel comfortable factoring that part out.

***

So the Cutler trade can (very reasonably) be viewed as:

Jay Cutler for Robert Ayers (a mid-No. 1 choice), Alphonso Smith (a No. 2 choice), Richard Quinn, and Kyle Orton—and in all likelihood moving down in the 2010 first round.

As we saw in the draft, a No. 2 this year costs, more or less, a No. 1 next year.  Viewing it in those terms, the Bears gave up a mid-No. 1, a No. 2, and a No. 3 in this year’s draft along with Orton for Cutler, a QB heading into his fourth year who has proven he can play in the league.

Please also consider that earlier in the day, the Browns effectively traded Mark Sanchez for a mid-No. 1 choice, a No. 2, and three players.  Sanchez is a highly-regarded prospect that needs seasoning and time to become a top-level NFL QB—if he does.

Perhaps the character/charisma concerns about Cutler lead to this disparity in value.  Again, we will see how it all plays out.

Considering all of that, the Bears seem to have paid less for Cutler than the Jets paid for Sanchez, taking Cutler’s production and experience into account.  The deal also makes more sense for the Browns since they are now better positioned at QB than are the Broncos, by any impartial evaluation.

***

Obtaining a young, NFL-productive QB via trade simply does not occur.  Usually, teams have to act as the Jets did; trade up to get “their guy”—but a guy who still has to prove it.  Cutler has proven it.

If you look at Cutler’s stats in his first three years vs. John Elway’s, Cutler beats Elway in any statistical category you can name: yards-per-attempt, TD and INT ratios, TD-to-INT ratio, overall TDs, overall yards, etc.

In addition, much has been made of Cutler’s records with the Broncos as a full-season starter (7-9 and 8-8).  Consider this: John Elway played with sub-par defenses in Denver during the 1988, 1990, 1992, and 1994 seasons—Elway’s sixth, eighth, 10th, and 12th seasons in the league. 

The Bronco defense ranked at 20 or lower in terms of yards and points allowed in each of those seasons.  While Elway had more experience than Cutler for each of those seasons, can you guess the Broncos’ W-L records during those years?

• 1988: 8-8
• 1990: 5-11
• 1992: 8-8
• 1994: 7-9

Cutler played with even worse defenses and had similar W-L records.  I am not saying Cutler is Elway; I am saying much of the disparagement of Cutler does not look at the facts.

 

VERDICT

Winners in the Cutler trade

The Chicago Bears, solving a decades-long issue at QB with a proven starter who is NOT the reason for the Broncos’ W-L records in the past two years, and paying a reasonable price to get him.  I know that Chris Mortensen from ESPN agrees with that assessment (not the end of debate, but certainly a strong opinion from someone who talks to every GM in the league).

The Seattle Seahawks: Seattle now has two picks that should be relatively high in the 2010 first round.  This will allow them to get an elite prospect or perhaps even two.  In my opinion, they are now the kings of the 2010 draft.  They have the flexibility to make any move they want, depending upon how things go.  They are in a very enviable position.  They need to address the QB position soon, and now they can.

But why are the Seahawks winners in the Cutler trade specifically?  Because I believe the reason they now rule the 2010 draft can be summed up by the behavior of McDaniels and Xanders.  Both feel incredible pressure to avoid a disastrous season in Denver in the wake of the Cutler deal.  I believe that pressure manifested itself in their capitulation to the demands of Seattle for the Broncos’ own pick.

 

Losers in the Cutler Trade

The Denver Broncos:  Both Xanders and McDaniels, especially McDaniels, are in the spotlight.  If the brutal 2009 Denver schedule (and if you don’t think it is brutal, go look at it) causes Denver to go 5-11, and the Broncos’ own pick is in the top-10, and could have been used or leveraged to obtain an elite QB, Bronco fans will peel the paint off the walls screaming at their TVs throughout the 2009 season, and McDaniels will be a pariah.

Seattle GM Tim Ruskell clearly has his opinion about which pick was better to acquire; no doubt he factored the Broncos’ draconian 2009 schedule into his equation.

But why are the Broncos the losers in this trade?  Ayers, Smith, and Quinn could be good players, it is true.  But the Broncos have put immense pressure on this season to win now, based on the Smith trade.  In addition, the Broncos now have one of the 6-7 worst QB situations in the league, again viewed impartially.  The team has been significantly destabilized due to the desire for McDaniels to make his mark and get rid of Cutler.

Had the Broncos not done the Smith trade—or even if they had simply obtained better terms for that trade—I would not be so certain they lost in this transaction.  However, the Cutler trade led to pressure, which made them give up an elite position in the 2010 draft to becoming more or less an afterthought.  That’s why I believe they lost.

I look forward to your opinions on the subject.

 

BroncosZone Latest

• The Denver Broncos Must Face Their New Reality
• Denver Broncos: The Beginning of a New Era, Or The Beginning of the End?
• Hey Denver, Where’s the Love for Josh McDaniels?
• Josh McDaniels Is the Poster Boy for “Too Much, Too Soon”
• Denver Wide Receiver Brandon Marshall: “I Love Being a Bronco”