Josh McDaniels: Great Coach, Questionable Game-Time Decisions

Game 13 in the NFL.

It’s an away game in perhaps the most savvy stadium environment in the NFL.

The crowd is hushed when the home team has the ball, up against a team looking to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Against a team boasting the best quarterback in the league; a quarter back that opposing coaches fear so much, they are willing to go for a 4th down conversions on their own 40, just to keep the ball out of his hands.

After winning the coin toss, the election is to give Peyton Manning the ball to start the game.

Later, with Indianapolis stuffing Knowshon Moreno time and again on short yardage, he is once again handed the rock and asked to run into a brick wall.

The problem with some two-bit amateur commentator, (such as myself) bringing up such issues is that often all the great things Josh McDaniels has done get tossed to the side.

Let me be clear; Josh McDaniels is a great coach, if not an elite one. He rebuilt one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and turned it into a top 5 one this year.

Initially he was criticized heavily for his methodology. No big name defensive linemen taken in the draft? A washed up Dawkins is going to anchor the secondary?

The offensive is steady, safe, and sometimes explosive. It’s not spectacular, but there is always that feeling the this offense can take off at any moment. It gets the job done for the most part. People said that without Cutler, Brandon Marshall would just fade away, and yet, on Sunday Marshall and Orton combined to set a new NFL record.

But when the casual observer can see the obvious, one begins to wonder exactly what it is the coach is seeing.

McDaniels explained the decision to give Manning the ball right out of the gate this way; The plan was for the Broncos to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, score, and then have the ball at the beginning of the third quarter, and score again. In addition, giving Indy the ball to start the game and then stopping them with a 3 and out would have been a huge psychological boost for the Broncos, and a humbling set back for the Colts.

Of course things didn’t work out that way.

Listening to McDaniels explain his decisions provides quite a bit of insight into his psyche.

The first thing that strikes me is; the man does not believe in random happenings. Anyone who believes he can make a precise blue print for his team to have the ball at the end of the second quarter, is thinking in the realm of formula and equations.

It’s apparent that McDaniels sees the game as a mathematical problem, and solving it is only a matter of crunching the right numbers and sticking to the formula.

It’s interesting to note that McDaniels was a math major in college, and his understanding that deferring the ball at the beginning of the game can be of benefit, statistically, can not be overlooked.

The downside to this kind of mindset is that it can lead to dogmatic and rigid thinking.

Yes, theoretically, deferring would give the Broncos two extra possessions, and lo’ and behold, it almost worked—except the Broncos went ultra-conservative as the half winded down.

Imagine that what you see unfolding on the field is literally Josh McDaniel’s mind at work; calculating theories and computing probabilities.

In all that mathematical mojo, McDaniels over-calculated and tried to slow things down and burn time off the clock, postulating a steady march ending in a Broncos score with 2 seconds left in the half.

Instead, the team bogged down, and gave the ball back to Manning.

The math was off.

The theory works, the statistics hold up, until you throw in reality.  Before you know it, you’re down 21-0.

This Monday morning coach understands the logic, but still thinks it was a bad idea. It was an example of McDaniels thinking too much. It was also an example of how self-assured—perhaps even cocky—he is about this team.

It’s important to note that last year McDaniel’s Sensei, Bill Belichick, was one of the first coaches to laud deferring the opening kick-off at the NFL level.

What about Knowshon Moreno being sent time and again into a defensive line that was stuffing him at each and every turn?

Moreno, for all his positives, is not a short-yardage-obvious-running-play kind of back. The Bronocs have such a back, a bruiser, in Peyton Hillis. Where was he?

McDaniels, in the post game press conference, explained that since blocking back Spender Larsen was injured early in the game, Hillis had to fulfill the role of a blocking back.

It makes logical sense. Buckhalter also went down with an injury. Lamont Jordan was inactive for the game. That literally left only two backs on the field: Moreno and Hillis.

Hillis is the better short yardage back. He apparently is also the better blocking back. It seems, when McDaniels weighed his options, he picked the lesser of two evils: Hillis will block, Moreno will run. Rigid thinking? Maybe. In hindsight, if this was the given situation, why was Hillis not blocking for Moreno as the seconds ticked down at the end of the first half. For five straight plays – even in short yardage – the Denver Broncos power back Hillis was no where to be seen. The rock was given to Moreno, with the clock winding down, and no blocking fullback was in sight. Might the ball have been handed to a bigger, stronger, and more mucking “down-hill” runner for better effect? Perhaps.

Still, let us consider some other issues that effect short yardage situations.

As play calling goes, the Broncos rarely go to play action and put Orton in roll out opportunities even less. Both of these issues, along with quarterbacking from shotgun, make short yardage running plays stand out and much more obvious and defensible.

This is also an offense that leans heavily toward a conservative philosophy.

We saw the results Sunday, as the Colts defense lined up and tee’d off on Moreno mercilessly. It’s a predictable outcome to a predictable offensive scheme. 

Also consider the Offensive Line this year.  There are injuries and demotions going on. Though the line coach is the same as last year, the scheme has changed some.

Statistically the team is below average in 3rd-and-short situations, and near last on 4th-and-short.

It’s not mentioned much, but the O-line is not the same this year.

Something is missing. 

So it just doesn’t boil down to one thing; not the decision to run the smaller back into a staunch defensive line, the sputtering short yardage offensive line play, nor the surprisingly predictable and conservative scheme of the offense.

McDaniels is a rookie head coach. Sometimes we forget that. He’s destined to be one of the elites someday. As he has shown a few times this year however, some of his play calling and game time decisions aren’t fully matured yet.

There is a time and a place for “statistics”.

There is a time and a place to punch the other team in the mouth with power running and vertical plays.

McDaniels is still learning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Why Josh McDaniels Needs Paul Ekman

Who the heck is Paul Ekman and why pray-tell does fresh faced Broncos coach Josh McDaniels need him?

Quick. When you think of Josh McDaniels’ facial expressions, what’s the first one to pop into your mind? For me, it’s the “SMIRK”.

The smirk was in full force during the Cutler drama. The press corps would ask him a question during an interview about Jay Cutler and McDaniels would answer earnestly enough, it would seem, but then kind of half smile and give us all the “I know something you don’t know” look and throw everything off kilter. Something didn’t seem right.

It was the glimpse of a facial expression that made us all not want to like the guy. An uneasy feeling in the gut, whether we were consciously aware of it or not. He’s the kind of guy that just rubs you the wrong way…Why is he smirking when the world’s on fire?

Cutler certainly wasn’t innocent in the “body language” department either. The former Broncos quarterback had the face of a sulker through and through. His facial and body expressions exuded the language of a 12 year old boy who was tired of listening to the rules of the house and just wanted his stupid parents to leave him alone.

It was not an endearing trait at all. Much like McDaniels’ facial expressions, it rubbed people the wrong way. Nobody likes a pouter. Especially one making millions of dollars a year.

Just for fun, type “smirk” into a Google images search. Before doing so, think for a moment: which famous American figure is likely to show up more often than any other in that search?

You got it: George W. Bush. The KING of the smirk.

So what’s this have to do with the Denver Broncos and Josh McDaniels?

Paul Ekman is a psychologist who began studying facial expressions (and body language) in the 1960’s. He traveled the world for years on end and studied humans and their various facial expressions diligently. Ekman essentially established that our facial expressions were universal in nature.

Sadness, for example, was expressed the same the world over, whether in the Japanese culture or deep in the Amazon rain forest with a remote tribe. Every emotional expression was universal. Ekman’s work is widely respected in the scientific community; the best selling book “Blink” by Malcolm Gladwell deals extensively with Ekman, and the popular television show “Lie to Me” is based upon his studies and his life.

Ekman, at one point his career, contacted the Bill Clinton administration with a concern. He told Clinton’s team that their man was sending out some really bad signals with his facial expressions:

“I said, ‘Look, Clinton’s got this way of rolling his eyes along with a certain expression, and what it conveys is “I’m a bad boy.” I don’t think it’s a good thing. I could teach him how not to do that in two to three hours…”

The Clinton team demurred. Why? They didn’t need the negative publicity that would come along with the President being coached by an expert on body language and lying. A few years later the Monica Lewinsky scandal hit…

Ekman, since that experience, has stated that he prefer’s to stay out of the business of public officials. He would have had a hay day with Bush’s smirk though.

And what of McDaniels’ facial clues? How are we to interpret his wry little smile that curls the triangularis lip muscle downward in the corner when it should be sliding up into a smile of sincerity? We know, instinctively that he LOOKS like he’s being insincere. Almost like…he’s laughing…AT US.

Remember the 60 Minutes interview with Obama on the state of the economy, when Steve Kroft confronted the President about his laughter throughout the interview, at one point even inquiring if Barack was “punch drunk?”

Kroft was picking up on facial cues and body language. Facial micro expressions and inappropriate vocalizations. So was the audience.

You’d think that the President of the United States would have coaches, of the Ekman variety, navigating him through the dangerous mine fields of public interaction.

It’s interesting to note that Ronald Reagan rarely had moments of inappropriate body language. He may have said things that were cringe worthy, but his gestures and facial expressions always brought us back to liking him.

Why?

Because he had coaching. Previous to becoming President of the United States, he was an actor. Somewhere along the line, he had trained professionals telling him: “You know, when you say this, you raise your eyebrows like this, and it doesn’t work…”

Some NFL coaches come in and just seem to have that Ronald Reagan quality to them.

Yesterday I was watching ESPN and there is this guy, Rex Ryan, new head coach of the New York Jets, who is immediately likable.

Positive public relation traits abound. The first is his no-B.S. demeanor. This guy doesn’t need a “communications” coach. Is he going to cross some lines? Oh yeah. Will we still like him anyway? Pretty much.

On the opposite end of the spectrum are guys like Bill Billichick and Josh McDaniels.

Interestingly, who was Ryan going after in his recent press conferences? The guy on the negative end of the public relations spectrum, Mr. Bellichick himself. Ryan had reporters giggling and fans chortling. You’d think he’d had acting lessons or something.

Can you imagine Josh McDaniels and Jay Cutler sitting across from one another in one of those early meeetings?

Jay: “I’ll play for you if you keep the offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in place.” *pout*

Josh: “We’ll do everything we can to make that happen.” *smirk*

A recipe for disaster.

And the fans were able to pick up on it. Cutler’s body language told us he felt “entitled”, and that if he didn’t get his way he was going to sulk and whine until he did.

McDaniels told us, clearly, that he had the go-ahead to do what ever the heck he felt like with this team. What we can interpret from his smirk is that Bowlen has given him the reigns, 100 percent.

That’s the Ekman micro expression he is giving us, isn’t it?

“Can you believe this? I’ve been given all this power, all this control, and all of you can just kiss my…”

If McDaniels continues to smirk his way through this season and seasons to come, things may not bode well for him. Winning games can get just about anybody through the gauntlet of the fans and media, it’s true.

But for the moment, a young coach coming in and exuding a personality of smugness and condescension, especially after fans have lost the beloved Mike Shanahan, does not suit Mr. McDaniels well.

It doesn’t mean he’s a bad coach. It just means that he’s now got the fans to gain. He lost them pretty darned quickly with his “I’m the big man on campus” attitude and smirky demeanor.

Is there a hint of things to come in his gestures and facial expressions? Can he gain control of his generally negative public perception?

A little bit of coaching, from a P.R. guru, might get this guy on the right track.

As Ekman said about Clinton: “…in two to three hours…” he could have him straightened out.

Perhaps McDaniels will get the hang of it with time. Maybe over a couple of years. For the moment however, he doesn’t have “the touch” with the press or the public.

He’ll have to work hard and dig deep to regain the trust of fans (and maybe even players), who find him insincere. Only time will tell.

Or perhaps, he just needs a good PR coach…

Denver Broncos Officially Rebuilding

Regardless of what happens with Brandon Marshall, the Denver Broncos are officially in a rebuilding phase.

The fan base and commentators seem loathe to admit it, but the Denver Broncos are deconstructing in order to reconstruct.

Apparently the fans believed that hiring a new coach meant leaving the team exactly as it was, without any major restructuring or upheavals of any kind.

It was assumed that McDaniels would come in, leave all the offensive pieces in place, and then promptly rebuild the defense through the draft and free agency.

A pretty big assumption considering this was a coach who came in and heavily emphasized a “system” approach. Players will fit the system, not the other way around. This was a known quantity from day one. Not believing that things would change, and change in a big way, was extremely naive.

Denver fans set themselves up; they believed change to be a painless and easy process. It’s not. It’s painful and messy.

There’s a lot of negative commentary out there: McDaniels is destroying the Denver Broncos, he’s losing the locker room, he’s chasing off star players.

Anyone who has ever managed anything of any kind, knows that one must initially come in hard and strict, and then slowly loosen up over time. Coming in wishy washy is what REALLY loses locker rooms. It’s much harder to regain control than it is to have it in the first place and then begin to soften a little.

In reality, it’s a brilliant move by both Bowlen and McDaniels.

This is how the cow ate the cabbage. PERIOD. There’s only one way to skin a cat. PERIOD.

Those players with weak stomachs and intent of bloodless coups shall walk the plank.

Which is exactly how year one of rebuilding should go. In this way, Josh McDaniels is more like Tom Coughlin than Bill Belichick.

Coughlin was often critized for coming into the NY Giants with an iron fist. But, alas, it worked, and as he loosened up (ever so slightly) in coming years, the Giants improved.

When it comes to the the 2009-2010 Denver Broncos, think of one of those home makeover TV shows. The kind where they come in, and instead of just repainting, patching a hole in the roof, buying some new furniture, and call it good, they instead bulldoze everything down and start rebuilding.

The end product produced from the bulldozer/rebuild approach, is always better than the patch the roof/hang new curtains approach.

For Broncos fans, it’ll mean perhaps having to sit through a rough season or two in order to get to a playoff caliber team. It’ll also mean getting over it. Broncos fans and Denver area reporters and commentators are going to have to let it go.

Shannahan is gone, Culter is in Chicago, and Brandon Marshall may very well end up being traded away for future draft picks…

What did you expect?

There’s a new Sheriff in town, and his name is Josh McDaniels.

Let’s face it: Denver had become a very mediocre team. As a Bronocs fan living out of state, I became very bored with the organization. Assuming I’m an average fan, the lack of interest generated from a .500 team cannot be a good thing.

Now, however, the average fan is paying attention again. As they say in Hollywood, the only bad publicity is no publicity. We’re watching again. For some of us, rebuilding is exciting. Certainly more exciting than 9-7, 7-9, and 8-8. Yawn.

You better believe many of us fans that had gotten a bit bored of the Broncos will be tuned in to this franchise in 2009.

The shortest tenure of any modern era Denver Broncos coach was Wade Phillips and his two year stint back in 1993 and 1994. He went 9-7 and 7-9. Barring a major personality conflict with the owner, you have to imagine that McDaniels will get at least three years to prove himself.

So settle in to that reality all you “glass is half empty” fans and commentators. Bowlen has made it clear that McDaniels is his man. And McDaniels has made it abundantly clear that he is THE MAN.

The bulldozer has flattened the old house. Brick by brick, the new house is rising up.

It’s a new era in the land of orange. Get used to it.

 

Denver Broncos 2009: Predicting The Unpredictable

The Denver Broncos preseason and season schedules:

2009 PRESEASON SCHEDULE

Fri.     Aug.14     at San Francisco    
Sat.     Aug.22     at Seattle    
Sun.     Aug.30     VS. CHICAGO    
Thu.     Sep. 3     VS. ARIZONA    

2009 REGULAR SEASON SCHEDULE

1     Sun     Sep.13     at Cincinnati    
2     Sun     Sep.20     VS. CLEVELAND    
3     Sun     Sep.27     at Oakland    
4     Sun     Oct. 4     VS. DALLAS    
5     Sun     Oct.11     VS. NEW ENGLAND    
6     Mon     Oct.19     at San Diego    
7             BYE WEEK            
8     Sun     Nov. 1     at Baltimore    
9     Mon     Nov. 9     VS. PITTSBURGH    
10     Sun     Nov.15     at Washington    
11     Sun     Nov.22     VS. SAN DIEGO    
12     Thu     Nov.26     VS. NEW YORK    
13     Sun     Dec. 6     at Kansas City    
14     Sun     Dec.13     at Indianapolis   
15     Sun     Dec.20     VS. OAKLAND    
16     Sun     Dec.27     at Philadelphia  
17     Sun     Jan. 3     VS. KANSAS CITY

The unpredictable is what I predict for the Broncos 2009 season. It’s going out on a limb, I know. But, clearly, committing to a commitment regarding the 2009 Denver season is dangerously close to actually having an opinion about what the Broncos might do in the upcoming year. And I’d rather just kind of ramble on.

Musings are much less substantial and not really accountable. So here goes nothing.

Mini-camp will have stretches of tedious repetition, theatrics and Shakespearean drama, and roiling waves of excitement and exhilaration. There will be on field arguments that’ll have the commentators predicting gloom and doom in Bronco Land and long hot days of nothingness inciting the pundits to platitudes of marrow sucking for a story, any story. Coaches, players, even ball boys, all,  will be ripe for the picking.

There will be moments of complete cohesion in camp, beatitudes as everything flows together and coalesces; a rainbow will alight upon the field, bunnies shall nibble upon the clover, and a glowing halo of butterflies will follow McDaniel off the field at the end of the day.
 
There will be days of boredom, routine, the constant.

I predict that when the preseason finally arrives it will suddenly look as if McDaniels is going to go with Simms.
Orton will have had a better camp. Fans will chorous: “What does this ‘supposed’ new Broncos coach think he is  doing, exactly?”
But in the end, it’ll be Orton after all. McDaniels is such a tease.
At some point in the preseason I’ll bet he’ll even have us thinking what’s his name, Brandstater might actually be starting the season…

Oh, and by the way, when Dawkins gets injured in the pre-season, the year will NOT be in jeopardy. Despite the newscasters and commentators going into a anxiety ridden tail-spin, the injury turns out to be minor, and the X-Factor will dominate through the year.
Going 1-3 in the preseason isn’t going to  help fan morale either. “This kind of record shows just how far this once hallowed team has fallen.” they will lament, “That dastardly McDaniels and his Satan worshipping ways has ruined us.”

Losing to Cutler at Invesco in the pre-season will be like a dagger in the heart. Fans will boo McDaniels. They’ll boo Cutler. Some will just be cheering for Bruce Springsteen. Many will give up hope, without the Broncos having played a single regular season game.

Right out of the gate, the Broncos will win in Cincinnati. Ocho Cinco does the Riverdance not once, but twice in the end zone. But it’s not enough as Orton hits a wide open Royal on a deep score and Moreno rushes for 100 yards and a TD. The defensive line holds and the secondary scores on an interception. Grown men skip about their living rooms in tighty-whiteys stained with buffalo wings and other unspeakable things. The Broncos are going to the SUPER BOWL!!!

And low and behold, the mighty boys in Orange will beat the teams they’re supposed to in weeks two and three, and will find themselves suddenly 3-0 and on top of the AFC West. McDaniels will be treated as the savior, Orton a deity, and the Denver Broncos are doing the unspeakable, they are going to the SUPER BOWL!!!

Except they’ll drop two of the next three games.

Dallas will come in and bend the Orange over and spank them hard. Perhaps, it will be discovered, it’s best not to go into games over-confident and cheer leader giddy. The Broncos forget their place for a moment and actually begin to believe they might be a playoff caliber team. Tisk, tisk, what a rookie mistake this proves to be. Romo rips them a new one. Orton is almost yanked in favor of Simms. At home, in front of everyone, we set off a stink bomb.

The very next week, however, we surprise everyone, and McDaniels wins the Grasshopper / Sensei battle. This despite Belichick being in our McDaniels “playbuk and steelin hiz signulz.”

Then, not yet ready to shake the monkey off their backs, and not as motivated as the previous week, we drop a close one to San Diego. What’s his face, QB from San Diego, taunts the Broncos’ starting quarterback Brandstater (yes, he gets a start due to injuried to both Simms and Orton) from the sidelines as the clock ticks down.

At the bye week we’re 4-2.

Then Baltimore kicks our tails, as does Pittsburgh.
Seriously? How can anyone not love the Ravens and the Steelers?
I hate Baltimore and can’t stand Pittsburgh and yet I still love them.
Baltimore has had the highest crime rate of any city for the past fifteen years, and yet I would take my wife and daughters there, through the ghetto, unarmed, at three A.M., with $100 bills hanging out of my pocket to see a game, just because I love the Baltimore Ravens that much.
And Pittsburgh? What’s not to like about dirty snow and well, dirty snow. Come on now. Deal with reality folks.
 
4-4.

But wait. Kyle Orton is put back in after his infected beard rash heals up, and we whoop up on Washington in the next week, finally beat San Diego the week after that, and give rookie Mark Sanchez an NFL beat down. In fact, Sanchez gets benched after the Denver drubbing. It’s ok though, because he’s still got his modeling gig.
7-4.

KC catches us off guard, McDaniels hugs and nuzzles and spoons Cassel midfield after the game, and then the next week Indy isn’t the same since losing Dungy, along with everyone else, and we pull off a win somehow.
8-5.

We clobber Oakland at home, Philly and Michael Vick (my crystal ball stopped streaming for a minute, but I’m pretty sure that’s what I saw) smack us around, and this time we’re ready for KC and we manage to pull off a close one. The intervention team is on the field post-game to avoid another embarrassing display of affection (that boarded on adult entertainment) between McDaniels and Cassel.

Final record: 10-6

After losing the wild card game, McDaniels, who has let his neck hair grow to sternum length, promises a better season next year.
The fans, also growing neck beards in honor of Orton, rally behind McDaniels, and gather to drink the punch.

We are the Denver Broncos.
Our colors are Orange and Blue.
We are unpredictable. Just as Orange and Blue are unpredictable colors.

I mean, come on…

How the heck does Orange and Blue look so damned cool?

10-6?

Believe it.

Denver Broncos Can Wait Until Later Rounds To Get Defensive Linemen

The Denver Broncos’ defensive line needs a make over. A defensive stat that parks the Mile High defense at 27th in the league against the rush puts the onerous squarely on the shoulders of the defensive line and the defensive coaching staff.

Amongst the blogosphere and various sports news outlets, one will find mostly the postulations and suppositions that for the Denver Broncos to have even the slightest chance of an improved defense this year, they will need to draft defensive line early and often. A good D-Line shuts down the run.

The consensus among observers is that early picks on “the best players available” and NOT solid defensive line run stoppers is risky and reckless.

Maybe so.

But perhaps a consideration of the best D-Lines around the league is in order. Are they all stocked with former first round draft picks from end to end? Hardly.

In fact, a look at the very best run stopping defense in the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings, can teach us quite a bit about our draft need assumptions when it comes to the Denver Broncos.

The Minnesota Vikings’ defensive line is all about stuffing the run. It’s what they do. They’ve lead the league in run defense over the last three seasons, allowing an average of only 70.8 rushing yards a game over that span.

Last year they did it without two starters in the secondary (due to injuries) for much of the year.

The line finished with 45 sacks in 2008, putting them fourth in the NFL in that category, and overall the defense as a whole notched a sixth place ranking. Quite respectable.

Let’s take a look at the Viking line from last year, and the respective draft positions of each player when originally selected.

The starting defensive end on the right side, Jared Allen, was drafted by Kansas City in the fourth round of the 2004 NFL Draft. His backup, Brian Robinson, was also a fourth round pick.

Kevin Williams, the starting right defensive tackle, was the Vikings’ ninth pick of the first round, and his reliever, Letroy Guion, was a fifth rounder.

At left side DT there’s Pat Williams, an undrafted free agent, and his breather, Fred Evans, a seventh round grab.

Ray Edwards, at left defensive end, was snagged in the fourth Round, while the player under him on the depth chart is Jayme Mitchell, yet another undrafted free agent.

The only other first round linemen on the DL roster are Jimmy Kennedy, widely considered a bust and positioned third string on the depth chart, and Kenechi Udeze, who was turning out to be a force (and still could be), but is presently battling leukemia.

So of the starters and second string guys, one was a first rounder, three were picked up in the fourth round, one in the the fifth round, one in the seventh, and the other two were undrafted free agents.

This rag-tag bunch has been the dominant run stuffing line in the league for the past three seasons? You bet.

Surprisingly, it’s not an uncommon scenario. Some of the very best defensive lines across the NFL are often a riff n’ raff bunch of tough guys ranging from first round darlings to undrafted blue collar muckers.

If the Denver Broncos do some interesting things in the first couple rounds of the draft, there’s no reason to panic. Gigging a linebacker and cornerback before looking at the line is not out of the question. Picking up some solid linemen later in the draft has precedent.

McDaniels and Xanders aren’t the types to panic. They certainly understand the history of draft picks and the defensive line, and will do the right thing.

That doesn’t necessarily mean going with linemen early. It doesn’t mean passing up on one either. It simply means going for the best defensive player on the boards in the early stages of the draft, regardless of position needs.

Denver Broncos: Draft Day Picks 12 and 18

NOTE: This is a revision of an article that was posted up by Rob Burson a few weeks ago. For a related article by Burson, check here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/160542-denver-broncos-can-wait-until-later-rounds-to-get-defensive-linemen

 

Big, Bad B.J. Raji, the potential nose tackle the Denver Broncos covet with there first draft pick, will more than likely be off the boards by the 12th pick.

If he’s not, he’ll obviously be picked up.

But with odds against Denver getting the dominant 337lb lineman here, how about a DE that can also play outside linebacker in a 3-4 system?

Will Everette Brown still be around at No. 12 for the Broncos?

There’s a good chance he will. The Mile High team will snag him up without flinching. He’s a pass rushing force who could step in immediately and give opposing teams something to seriously think about.

He’ll rack up sacks, and also contribute to a healthy infusion of behind the line tackles.

This guy fits squarely into the Broncos new hybrid OLB/DE scheme. He can perform with a fist in the dirt, or standing up. He’s projected to go between 10-30, so there’s a good chance the boys in Orange can get this player.

He’s a little undersized for a lineman, so Tyson Jackson sometimes stands out as potentially better for the moves the Broncos need to make. But Brown is more dynamic and offers a better all around package.

Jackson is the one dimensional DE.

Brown can do pass rushing, coverage, and run stuffing.

Either would be a good choice, but I’m going with the dark horse Everette Brown here. More than a little bit of my thinking here is because Tyson Jackson will more than likely be gone by pick 12, as I see things.

After securing a defensive lineman (of sorts), the Broncos will continue to add to defense overall with their 18th pick.

He’s been coached by Pete Carroll and Ken Norton Jr in a system that has steadily produced top notch linebackers.

In 2008, he was awarded the Chuck Bednarik Award, annually given to the No. 1 overall defensive player in the country, as judged by NCAA coaches and college football experts across the nation.

In the 2008 Rose Bowl, he emerged as the defensive player of the game.

He’s been hailed as the next Junior Seau.

At No. 18 in the 2009 draft, the Denver Broncos will scoop up the phenom that is Rey Maualuga.

His intense and emotional play at inside linebacker is precisely what the Broncos need to turn around the lackluster and uninspired defense of seasons past.

His numbers are stellar, and there’s no doubt that Maualuga will make a major impact on whatever team picks him up in the first round.

Denver fans are hoping he lands with the Broncos, and thus begins to lift the team out of the quagmire of the past few years.

With Brown and Maualuga plugged into Nolan’s 3-4, and the seasoned secondary prowling the backfield, the Denver Bronco’s will noticeably improve on defense this year.

Outside of somehow picking up B.J. Raji at No. 12 (he’ll be gone by then), getting these two players would make the 2009 Denver Broncos draft a success.

Though the secondary seems to be fairly cinched up for the year—what with Dawkins, Goodman, Hill newly signed, and Champ still around—an infusion of youth is needed back there. The Broncos are improved here, though not set for the future, and should use the 49th pick on a corner back.

Beyond this, it’ll be time for the Broncos to get busy with defensive line role players.

They may not rise to the top of the AFC this year, but the new Denver defense will be respectable and at times formidable on the field.

I’m a strong proponent of the Broncos drafting linemen.

It’s a huge need.

But with 12 and 18 there are two players who bring a great deal of diversity and intensity to the game of play. Despite the naysaying of the experts, Everette Brown still has a real shot of turning out to be a true DE in the NFL. Maualuga has potential to be the next Junior Seau. Hopefully the Broncos staff snags both players up come draft day.

 

Draft Day: 12 and 18 For The Denver Broncos

He’s been coached by Pete Carroll and Ken Norton Jr in a system that has steadily produced top notch linebackers.

In 2008 he was awarded the Chuck Bednarik Award, annually given to the No. 1 overall defensive player in the country, as judged by NCAA coaches and college football experts across the nation.

In the 2008 Rose Bowl, he emerged as the defensive player of the game.

He’s been hailed as the next Junior Seau.

At No. 12 in the 2009 draft, the Denver Broncos will scoop up the phenom that is Rey Maualuga.

His intense and emotional play at inside linebacker is precisely what the Broncos need to turn around the lackluster and uninspired defense of seasons past.

His numbers are stellar, and there’s no doubt that Maualuga will make a major impact on whatever team picks him up in the first round.

Denver fans are hoping he lands with the Broncos, and thus begins to lift the team out of the quagmire of the past few years.

After securing a playmaker at LB, the attention turns to a defensive end who can rush the passer and garner some serious attention from across the line.

Will Everette Brown still be around at No. 18 for the Broncos? If he is, the Mile High team will snag him up without flinching. He’s a pass rushing force, who could immediately step in and give opposing teams something to seriously think about.

He’ll rack up sacks, and also contribute to a healthy infusion of behind the line tackles.

This guy fits squarely into the Broncos new hybrid OLB/DE scheme. He can perform with a fist in the dirt, or standing up. He’s projected to go between 10-30, so there’s a chance the boys in Orange can get this player.

Outside of somehow picking up B.J. Raji at No. 12 (he’ll be gone by then), getting these two players would, in and of themselves, make the 2009 Denver Broncos draft a major success.

The secondary seems to be fairly cinched up for the year, what with Dawkins, Goodman, and Hill newly signed, and Champ still around. The Broncos are improved here, and though not set for the future, are solid for a year or two.

Later in the draft, the Broncos will add some depth at CB or safety, but they’ll not attack here in the draft. Maybe next year.

With Maualuga and Brown plugged into Nolan’s 3-4, and the seasoned secondary prowling the backfield, the Denver Bronco’s will noticeably improve on defense this year.

They may not rise to the top of the AFC, but they will be respectable and formidable on the field.

Picks 12 and 18 could make all the difference.

J.J. Arrington Is Denver Bronco’s Sleeper Running Back

Quick. In the history of the Pac-10, who are the only two running backs to have gained over 2000 yards in a single season?

Answer: Marcus Allen and J.J. Arrington.

J.J. Who? In 2004 J.J. Arrington gained 2,018 rushing yards with the Cal Bears, putting in at least a 100 yard effort for each game that season.

In the NFL, with the Arizona Cardinals, Arrington had an intriguing career. During his stint with AZ in 2008 he was handed the rock 31 times, rushed for 187 yards, averaged 6.0 yards per carry, and got into the end zone once.

The ball was caught by him 29 times, for 255 yards, and an additional TD. He fumbled the ball only one time last year.

On Mar. 5, 2009, Arrington left his Cardinals perch, and signed with the Denver Broncos.

J.J. is but a mere 5’9″, and tips the scale at just over 200 lbs.

He’s scrappy, allusive, and speedy. He can get around the outside. Though he’s too small to be a true feature back, he does bring an awful lot to the table. There’s reason to believe that he will thrive in the Denver Broncos new system.

He’ll be plugged in as the Bronco’s punt and kick returner. This will be a needed reprieve of those duties for the rising star that is Eddie Royal. Arrington, although not spectacular as a return man, will be solid and smart in fulfilling this role.

Still it will be interesting to see him as a punt returner (in Arizona he only returned kick offs). With his speedy cuts and dancing, he seems especially suited for this role.

He will make some appearances in the backfield, but often as a passing option. His hands are exceptional, and he’s quick to adjust after the catch.

When the ball is dumped off to him on short passes, the slashing and juking starts, and he becomes a real threat for some big chunks of yardage, especially if he’s out on the edge. He’s very exciting to watch in this situation.

He developed into a reasonable blocker in Arizona. His size limits him, but he’s not afraid to get his body in there and scrap.

He’s the perfect match for a quarterback like Kyle Orton and a coach like McDaniels. Opposing defenses will have to have an eye on him whenever he’s on the field, because he brings an unpredictable element to the game.

Because he can do anything, he’s tough to defend against.

There’s a good chance that Arrington will emerge as a major and heavily utilized force in this newly rebuilt Broncos club. Think: Darren Sproles.

Broncos fans should expect to fall in love with this guy. He accepts his role, he’s humble, soft spoken, and he’s very smart.

On the field, he will get fans up out of their seats every time he touches the ball, bringing a dynamic energy to an otherwise standard back field.

Going into his fifth year as a pro, this could prove to be Arrington’s break through season. He’s certainly in the right system to make it happen.

 

 

How the Denver Broncos Can Return to the Playoffs in 2009

The Broncos are going to win games this year and make it to the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Here are five reasons why, in order of significance and impact:

 

1) Defense

McDaniels and Nolan will do the right thing and draft defense through the first 3 rounds come draft day.

Picking up a big nose tackle to anchor down the 3-4 is crucial. If B.J. Raji is still available at 12, jump for joy Bronco fans. His 6’4″ 340 lb frame and athleticism will enable him to step immediately in as a starter and demand doubling up from opposing team players.

If Raji is gone by 12, the Broncos will go for the highest DE or LB familiar with 3-4 still available. They should easily land a ready-to-start player here.

18 should go to a lineman or LB. Maybe a run stuffing hard hitting safety?

Finding defensive role players beyond the second round will be key.

So…A group of enthusiastic younger defensive players coupled with the veteran leadership picked up in free agency, under the guidance of Mike Nolan… should equal a much improved defense. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the defensive will rank in the top 12 this year, a nice climb out of the basement of last season.

 

2) The “System”

McD is a “system” coach, and the system he brings is top notch.

The system is this: no single player is above the team. Each player fills a very specific and somewhat narrow role. The trick is for the coaching staff to find those players who are A) coachable, and B) willing to play a specific role.

If players buy in (or can be motivated to buy in), it WILL work.

Bottom line, if the team can come out and win four of its first six games, McD will have gained the trust of the players, putting McJaygate behind him. Players having confidence in the system is what it’s all about. McDaniels will have to prove that he can implement it.

I believe that he will, and once that ball is rolling, he’ll gain momentum and take the Broncos to the playoffs.

A few other notes: The system is extremely effective in the Red Zone. The system is not static and predictable (though it sounds like it would be). It’s very good at adapting and modifying. Expect blistering first half’s and ball control second half’s if things go right.

 

3) Kyle Orton

He’s underrated. The defense he had to deal with in Chicago was nearly as bad as Denver’s. Orton never had a single stellar receiver to throw to. Now he’s got Marshall and Royal and Scheffler, etc.

He had a “meh” offensive line. His running back (rookie Forte), though good, was over-rated.

The thing about Orton is that his team wins games when he’s at QB.

He is accurate, and doesn’t turn over the ball a lot.

He can dink and plink accurately all day with his passes, making him an excellent McD fit. He was extremely well liked and respected in the Chicago locker room. A leader.
He knows his place, and is eager to learn.

He’s no Jay Cutler, but he’s not a Jake Plummer either. He’s somewhere in between, with a much better attitude than either.

And by the way…
Orton will be the first Broncos quarterback to NOT be compared to John Elway. He’s going to be compared to Jay Cutler. The pressure of Saint Elway is gone. At least with Cutler comparisons, Orton has the ability to get that particular monkey off his back.

He could do it as early as the first season, if he can effectively lead the Broncos and perhaps even finish with a better record than the Bears. It would take him 16 years and two Super Bowl rings to get Elway off his back.

 

4) Offensive Line

Kyle Orton has never played behind a line like this.

Neither has Tom Brady for that matter.

The Broncos have a top-five offensive line. These guys will keep Orton standing, and will bust open some holes for the running backs. McD will use running backs and tight ends as blockers more often than Shanahan did.

So, Orton should be well protected this coming year. With his spectacular receiver core dashing around out there, it could potentially be a lot of fun to watch this team.

The Broncos should pick up a center or LG later in the draft, as those positions, though solid now, are getting up there in years.

 

5) Running back by committee

When you think New England Patriots, you don’t initially think running game. But last year they ranked in the top 10 or above in almost every critical running back stat on the books.

It’s also interesting to note that the Pats were essentially a 50/ 50 offensive team (running 50 percent of the time, passing 50 percent of the time). Expect a more balanced offensive attack this year in Denver.

There will not be a star back. Backs will be rotated in and out quickly and often. The backs who are most able to get with this system in training camp (and do it with a smile) will be the ones still on the roster come the regular season.

Under McD, each running back will have a very specific and fairly narrow role. Backs will be asked to block more than under Shanahan. They’ll also account for a lot of receptions underneath, and lot’s of little screens. Arrington (picked up from Arizona) is particularity well suited for this role, by the way.

We’ll be seeing a lot of running backs getting into the end zone, and it won’t all be rushing scores. The running backs will come alive in the red zone under McDaniels.

I think overall, the Broncos will still have a bit of a “rebuilding” feel to them, and that there will be some tumultuous moments in training camp and even into the preseason, but I think that by the time the regular season starts, there’s going to be one heck of a team on the field.

Meanwhile, over in Chicago I think things might be a little rough. Cutler was kept upright thanks to a tough offensive line. He’s going to be eating dirt a bunch in Chicago behind a below average O-line with only an average (at best) receiving core to toss to.

If running back Forte goes down, it’s all over: Forte will be the only thing keeping pressure off Cutler, and if he’s out, teams are going to line up and run over Jay all day long.

It’s interesting to note that Forte averaged only 3.9 yards a carry last year.
EVERY SINGLE Bronco’s running back individually averaged more than that last year. It’s fair to say that Denver had a better running game than Chicago last season.

Chicago’s defense is better than what Denver put on the field in 2008, but not remarkably so. The Bear’s defense ranked 30th in passing yards allowed and 21st in total yards allowed.

The fans in Chicago aren’t going to give Cutler much of a honey moon either. They lost two first-round picks and a winning, well liked quarterback. If things begin to get a little ugly, like maybe the Bears stumble out of the gates and Cutler starts sulking or being moody…it’s going to be a long year in the Windy City.

 

Orton out of Elway’s Shadow

Consider this: Kyle Orton is the first Quarterback since John Elway’s retirement who wont be compared to the almighty number seven.

He’ll get comparisons to the supposed next rising of the messiah, who was shipped off to Chicago with his bottom lip puckered out, but not to Elway.

That will be a huge component of his success.

The pressure of being held up to Saint John for comparison has ruffled the feathers or gotten under the skin of every previous quarterback who has come into the Bronco’s fold. It comes from the fans and the media, who analyze each new QB and judge his worthiness by how stacks up against John Elway.

Brian Greise had the distinct disadvantage of following right on the heels of the departing Mile High Deity. He looked clumsy and lumbering after 16 years of Elway’s dexterity and dynamism.

Plummer’s displeasure with the Denver fans and the Elway comparisons is well documented (insert finger wave here).

Cutler had to feel the pressure also; in one interview he defensively quipped that he had a stronger arm than Elway.

In comes Kyle Orton and the inevitable comparisons to, wait for it, Jay Cutler.

For Orton, shaking away from the short legacy of Jay Cutler is much less a daunting task than sluffing the monkey of John Elway off one’s back. It would take 16 years, five Super Bowl appearances, with two wins, a “Drive” or two, and a handful of successful auto dealerships to live up to the legend that is Elway in Denver.

But he doesn’t have to worry about that. All he has to do is have a better 2009 season than Jay Cutler. That Or take Denver to the playoffs while Chicago stays home. Even if he breaks even, and goes nose to nose with Cutler through 2009, Orton wins.

Jay Cutler getting traded has unintentionally allowed Kyle Orton to step out from under a different shadow. One much smaller and a lot less intimidating than big John’s.

In a sense, a curse has been lifted.

 

 

 

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