Broncos and Chargers Looking to Prove Themselves In Week Six

On the verge of Week Six, the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers are two teams looking to make a statement early in the season.

While the Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL with a 5-0 record, there are still some doubters out there waiting for them to fall.

Surprisingly, defense has been the biggest shock in Denver. Through five games, the Broncos have only allows seven points in the second half, which is an amazing stat compared to the 2008 version of this defense.

The key to the game for the Broncos will be to get pressure on Phillip Rivers. It seems apparent that the Chargers can’t run the ball, so if the Broncos can prevent Rivers from getting into the seven-step drop they should be able to shut down the Charger offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers must find a way to stop the run if they are going to have a chance. Broncos back Knowshon Moreno has racked up 337 rushing yards and Correll Buckhalter has added an additional 267 yards.

In addition the Chargers run defense has been less than impressive giving up an average of 151.1 yards per game which ranks 27th in the NFL.

The Chargers are at a different point than I think anyone expected. This week, the team’s GM AJ Smith called the team out, saying they had been soft and embarrassing to this point in the season.

The Chargers have owned the series against the Broncos in recent time, winning five of the last six, including the 52-21 dismantling in 2008 to give the Chargers a route to the playoffs.

It seems as though the Broncos aren’t the same team that was beat down last season. The question becomes, can the Chargers show any resemblance of that 2008 team?

Not to call it good this early in the season, but a Broncos win over the Chargers this week could make it next to impossible for the Chargers or any other team to catch the Broncos in the AFC West race.

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Denver Broncos Flying a Mile High After Five Games

When NFL Training camps opened back in late July, very few people, if any thought the Broncos would have a 2009 season to savor. With a new regime taking over and many changes taking place this team had more of the look of rebuilding, than contending.

Following what could only have been described as a disastrous and tumultuous beginning with the trading of former franchise quarterback Jay Cutler, the Broncos new Head Coach Josh McDaniels appears to have made a complete 180.

After all, McDaniels was replacing what some may have considered to be one of the league’s best head coaches and offensive masterminds (Mike Shanahan). Shanahan had led the Broncos to back to back Super Bowl victories with the last coming in 1999, but after a decade of struggling it seemed change was overdue.

When Pat Bowlen made the decision to go in a new direction this past offseason, even with his credentials McDaniels hardly seemed to be the right fit. The young up and coming offensive coordinator was busy making a name for himself in New England as an offensive guru himself.

For the past several seasons one of the Broncos major deficiencies and their biggest Achilles heel last year was the defense. A season ending meltdown (three game losing streak), culminated by a 52-21 loss that ended any postseason hope told Bowlen all he needed to know; new blood was in order.

Enter the young Mr. McDaniels, whose youthful exuberance and charismatic spirit has breathed new life into the franchise and the city. With his arrival came difficult, but needed changes. One of his first and perhaps least publicized (at least didn’t cause much of a stir), yet key decisions that has this team riding a wave of orange was the hiring of Mike Nolan.

A New Improved D…

Nolan brings with him the pedigree of winner as a defensive coordinator. His defenses of the past have built a reputation for being aggressive, bringing pressure, and most critical causing turnovers; all areas that the 2008 Broncos lacked. This season playing a new 3-4 scheme under Nolan the defense has racked up 16 sacks, held their opponents to 43 total points this season, and recorded 11 takeaways.

Of course Nolan is only as good as the talent he coaches and another credit to McDaniels, the key free agent signings made in the offseason. Like a glove Andra Davis (former Brown), Renaldo Hill (former Dolphin), and Darrell Reid (former Colt) have all stepped in to play a big part in the defenses turnaround.

Without question the biggest signing was the acquisition of former Eagles safety Brian Dawkins. His leadership and infectious sell out attitude has this defense playing at a level like the city hasn’t seen in some time.

Offense is coming around….

Just as the firing of Shanahan was blasted in some circles, McDaniel’s hiring came with its own criticism. A franchise that needed a defensive injection instead brought in the next Mike Shanahan.

The comparisons were obvious; McDaniels had accomplished great things as the offensive coordinator in New England with Tom Brady and helped a seeming mid-level talent like Cassel blossom. It was McDaniel’s offense that Brady ran in 2007 when he rewrote the record books with 50 touchdown passes.

With the defense suddenly playing inspired ball this season, it has taken McDaniel’s “Patriot’s West” offense a little more time to get simmering. Only last Sunday against the Patriots did the Bronco’s offense start to resemble something of what many that they would see in 2009.

In their win over New England the Broncos had 27 first downs, ran up 424 yards of offense, and held the ball for over 36 minutes; characteristic of a McDaniels offense. The next step in their evolution will obviously be more points.

With players like Marshall and Royal beginning to hit their stride in the passing game and the rookie Knowshon Moreno anchoring the ground game (when he holds onto the ball), the Broncos have what appears to be a potent offense.

And with a supporting cast of Gaffney, Scheffler, Buckhalter, and Hillis; these guys are only going to make for long days for opposing defensive coordinators. If last Sunday against the Patriots is any indication of the potential of this unit, their ceiling appears to be a mile high.

A Big Test Lies Ahead….

With everything starting to click in Denver and McDaniel’s team 5-0, there is still much to prove for this highly scrutinized over-achieving ball club. In the first couple of weeks, it was “they haven’t played anyone” and then last week, “well they’re always better at home.”

This may very well be a recurring theme all season long, but one fact that is hard to escape, this coming Monday night is going to be a tough road test no matter how you look at it. In recent history, the Chargers have owned the Broncos and with their team sputtering, this divisional matchup will be critical.

So far the Broncos have yet to really be perfect this season, but with a little lady luck they stand 5-0 and atop the AFC West with a two and a half game lead over the Chargers. Monday night is yet another test for McDaniels and his boys, but one if passed should not only satisfy the critics, but legitimize this team as the “real deal.”

That’s my take.

Check back every week for more of “That’s My Take”

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2009 NFL Surprise Teams: Broncos and Bengals

When that crazy tipped pass ending gave the Broncos their first win, many of you probably thought, like most of the humans around the office here, “Well, somebody had to win.”

We have to admit that we never thought that we would be heading into week six and that game would have provided the only loss by either team.

Although PossessionPoints.com is based on the East Coast, we do what we can to follow teams nationwide. We are avid listeners to Sirius NFL radio so we hear fans from all over the country voice their biased opinions about their teams.

As early as August, even the most optimistic Broncos fan was only expecting maybe an 8-8 season. The team had dealt away their young “franchise” QB and seemed to have gotten the short end of the deal. They were feuding with their top wide receiver, and it appeared to many that their rookie head coach may be in over his head.

The Broncos went 1-3 in the preseason, and they failed to score over 20 points in any of the four games. So, we were not expecting much out of the Broncos this season. We will admit that we said that “the AFC West was the Chargers‘ division to lose.” We expected the Broncos to win their first game against the Bengals because our expectations for the Bengals were a bit lower than our expectations for the Broncos.

In the Bengals’ case, we thought that they would have a tough time competing in their division with the two teams (the Steelers and the Ravens) that we expected to be quite strong, like they were in 2008.

So, here we are and five weeks are gone, and the Bengals are 4-1 with wins over both the Steelers and Ravens to their credit. The win over the Ravens was in Baltimore too.

The Broncos and Bengals sit at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, on our Performance Ranking Chart, and now we have to say we would not be surprised to see both of these teams in the playoffs.

Looking ahead at the Bengals’ schedule, you cannot count them out of any game based on the way they have been playing. And you would have to count them as the clear favorite in the games against the Raiders, Browns, Lions, and Chiefs. That would give them eight wins.

The other teams left on the Bengals’ schedule are the Texans, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Chargers, and Jets. No pushovers there, but if they can win just three of those seven games, it would be an astounding feat and an 11-win season. Don’t tell the Patriots, but 11 wins usually makes the playoffs.

The road ahead for the Broncos is equally promising. They have five wins in the bank and still have two games with the Chiefs, one with the Redskins, and one with the Raiders ahead of them. With these opportunities in mind, let us say that the low expectation for the Broncos is nine wins.

They just beat the Patriots, so you have to count that game as well as the games against the Cowboys and Bengals as quality wins. Their immediate future is the toughest as they face the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers in the next three games.

The Broncos get a break in that their bye falls right after the Chargers’ game, and that will give them a rest to prepare for the Ravens. The game with the Redskins follows the Steelers’ game and then the Broncos once again face the Chargers. However, this time the contest is in Denver. Denver still has the Giants, Eagles, and Colts on their schedule, so they do not have a “soft” schedule.

If they win the games we now expect them to win to get to nine wins, they only need to win two of the games against the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers (twice), Giants, Colts, and Eagles.

Hey, the Bengals beat both the Steelers and Ravens, and they have about the same “Relative Performance Number” (RPM) as the Broncos. (For more information on our RPM see our article on Week Two Performance Rankings, where we explain them in more detail.)

We actually enjoy “surprises” in the NFL. We find it interesting as our stat-based projections put out predictions that the humans in the office sometimes do not believe.

We shook our heads each week that our Matchup Chart picked the Bengals and Broncos, but so far they have lived up to their stats and won. The Matchup Chart did pick the Patriots to win last week, but the computer thought the game would be close enough that it had the Broncos with the points. That served us well anyway.

We can’t wait to see what surprises the remainder of the season brings.

The full Week Six RPM chart is below:

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Broncos-Chargers Preview: Keys To Victory For Denver in Week Six

The Denver Broncos (5-0, First place AFC West) are off to their best start in over a decade as they head West to San Diego to take on their division rival Chargers (2-2, Second place AFC West) in the week six Monday Night Football matchup.

Prior to the season starting, no one outside of die-hard Denver fans would have thought that the San Diego Chargers would be the team in disarray after five weeks of the season, but here we are.

The Chargers recently cut ties with veteran starting safety Clinton Hart, and General Manager A.J. Smith has called out his team for not performing up to their full potential.

One player Smith “hurt” in particular was hybrid linebacker/defensive end Shawne Merriman, who many believe could also be on the chopping block in San Diego as he plays out the final year of his rookie contract.

The Chargers simply have not found their groove so far this season, and are not seemingly close to finding it. 

They have injury issues on both the offensive and defensive lines, and their best player of this decade in LaDainian Tomlinson has also been fending off the injury bug.

Inversely, the Broncos are playing top-notch ball, led by their number one ranked defense who is allowing a league-best 8.6 points per contest. 

This rivalry is one the Chargers have dominated in recent years, but this is the first time they will face a non-Mike Shanahan led Broncos team.  For once, this matchup seems a bit lop-sided in favor of the Broncos rather than the Bolts.

Here are my keys to victory for Denver when they head to San Diego in week six.

1.  Take away the screen pass to Darren Sproles

This is one of the Chargers’ biggest offensive weapons.  They absolutely love to hit Darren Sproles with a screen pass on third down situations, and they execute it well.

Sproles has caught only 15 passes this year, but he is averaging over 13 yards per reception.  He is a big weapon for this team and Philip Rivers when they need to be bailed out on third and long situations.

The Broncos can neutralize this by giving the Chargers a lot of different looks on third downs, mainly faking blitzes.  If the Broncos can disguise their blitzing well, they will be able to shut down this particular facet of the Charger offense.

2.  Assign a defender to TE Antonio Gates

Gates is having one of his better seasons as a professional so far in 2009.  He has 24 receptions for 349 yards, and he seems to have a knack for getting open.

The Broncos cannot let that happen.

Denver shut down Jason Witten in week four against the Dallas Cowboys, so there is no reason to believe they cannot bottle up Gates.

My guess is that the Broncos will either try and assign a defender like Wesley Woodyard to Gates or maybe somebody like Jack Williams, who could be giving up a lot of size but who has done a phenomenal job so far this season.

3.  Dominate the Running Game (Offensively and Defensively)

The running game statistics so blatantly favor the Broncos in this game it is almost unfair. 

Denver is ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 139, and the Chargers are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum.  They average 53.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 32nd (also known as “Dead Last”).

Defensively, the Broncos allow a mere 81 yards per game on the ground, ranking them sixth in the NFL.  The Chargers are allowing opponents 151 yards rushing per contest, which is sixth worst in the league.

The statistics indicate that Denver will be able to dominate this game on the ground, both offensively and defensively.  The San Diego front seven has been anything but impressive so far this year, and the Broncos have been absolutely stellar. 

Denver is potentially getting a boost from veteran Correll Buckhalter, who missed last week’s game with an ankle sprain.  He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but that is more than he has done in a while.  The Broncos are hoping he can go Monday night to give them their one-two punch of he and Knowshon Moreno, who leads all rookies in rushing yards.

4.  Pin your ears back, and get to Philip Rivers

If the Chargers are unable to establish a running game, the Broncos could have a field day in terms of quarterback sacks.

This is a unit that ranks second in the NFL in quarterback take-downs with 16, and they are facing a San Diego offensive line that is battered.

Still, the Charger line has given up a fairly respectable 10 sacks this season, so there are no guarantees.

The Broncos need to make the Chargers one dimensional by shutting down the run, then hit them where it hurts.

Creating pressure on Philip Rivers is not easy, as he is a very smart quarterback who can get the ball out quickly, but the Broncos have proven they can put pressure on most teams.

The only team that has been able to shut Denver down in terms of pass rush has been the New England Patriots, and their offensive line is far superior to San Diego’s. 

The Broncos likely will bring a lot of disguised defensive looks as I stated earlier, and Elvis Dumervil could have another multi-sack game.

5.  When you get the ball, get in the END ZONE

This has really been the only flaw for the Broncos this year.  In the past two games, Denver has had to overcome a ten point first quarter deficit. 

That simply will not fly with a potent offense like San Diego.

The Broncos have had plenty of opportunities to score early on, but they have been unable to take advantage early.

All the talk about Kyle Orton now being an MVP candidate, Knowshon Moreno as the early favorite for rookie of the year, Brandon Marshall playing the best ball of his career, and having a dominant offensive line means absolutely nothing if you cannot put up points.

The Broncos’ offense, give them credit, has gotten points when it matters most, which is why they are 5-0, but they absolutely have to score touchdowns when they get to the red zone.

They have had virtually no trouble at all moving the ball down the field, ranking sixth in the NFL in total offense, but they rank a dismal 22nd in scoring at just under 20 points per game.

Positional Breakdown

Quarterback:  Broncos

Running Back:  Broncos

Wide Receiver:  Broncos

Tight End:  Chargers

Offensive Line:  Broncos

Defensive Line:  Broncos

Linebacker:  Broncos

Defensive Back:  Broncos

Special Teams:  Chargers

Advantage:  Broncos

After looking at the positional breakdown, it is clear who has the advantage in this game.  I do not like to discredit other teams, because the Chargers are certainly capable of putting up “X” amount of points on any given night—but they are just too one dimensional and too battered up front right now.

The biggest factor in the Chargers’ favor is home field advantage, and maybe catching Denver on a high.  The Broncos have yet to suffer a let-down this season, and they appear to be a very well-coached, very disciplined team.

In all, this game will come down to who can win the time of possession battle.  The Broncos have the decided advantage in run offense and run defense, so they should be able to accomplish that.

It should also be noted that the Chargers are allowing opponents a 49 percent conversion rate on third down, which is very good news for the Broncos.

This, like all Chargers-Broncos games should be a great one to watch.  The Chargers have an offense that is capable of exploding at any given time, and the Broncos have a smashmouth defense.

The Chargers are in desperate need of a victory coming off of their bye week, as they could potentially trail Denver by 3.5 games if they lose at home on Monday night.  The Broncos do not want to allow San Diego any hope of pulling off something similar to what they did last year, and they hope to increase their lead in the AFC West heading into a bye week of their own before they face Baltimore.

Is it Monday yet?

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Knowshon Moreno Pulling Away from the Rest of the Rookie Class

The rookies were harder to rank this week due to the impact some made on the field as well as some injuries. The list has been shaken up a bit because of these factors.

New faces are showing up for their respective teams while some rookies are falling off a bit. This week’s rankings:

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: Moreno is now the feature back, evident by his 21 carries and four receptions in the game against the Patriots. Moreno did not have the statistical outburst I was expecting against the Patriots, but his 88 yards rushing and 36 yards receiving helped lead the Broncos to a big win. Now that he is the undisputed No. 1 running back in Denver, expect big days from Moreno.

2. Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: Sanchez and the Jets were defeated on Monday Night Football, but this time Sanchez cannot receive all the blame. He held on to the ball and did not put his team in bad spots. He only finished with 172 passing yards and one touchdown, but the absence of turnovers was important to the young quarterback’s frame of mind.

3. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings: Harvin’s production has fallen off steadily. He has not caught a touchdown pass since Week Two and does not seem to be Brett Favre‘s favorite target. The Vikings are a run-first team, which means when push comes to shove the Vikings will run Adrian Peterson first and pass later. I am still high on Harvin because of his versatility, but the rookie receivers behind him are pushing him for this spot.

4. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: Nicks has scored in the Giants’ offense for two straight weeks, showing why he was a first round pick. Now that his injury is healed he can become a viable option for the Giants as the biggest target in Eli Manning‘s arsenal. Nicks only had 49 yards receiving against the Raiders last week, but his size makes him a favorable target in the red zone.

5. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles: Maclin exploded with Donovan McNabb back under center. Maclin finished with six catches for 142 yards and two touchdowns last weekend. He has the same speed as fellow receiver DeSean Jackson, but his size makes him an easier target in the passing game. Maclin has the ability to beat guys deep or jump over defenders. His rise up this list is expected based on his potential.

Last Week’s Rookie Report Rankings

1. Knowshon Moreno
2. Percy Harvin
3. Mark Sanchez
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Kenny Britt

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San Diego Chargers: A Team In Trouble

Looking ahead to Monday night, when the Broncos take on the Chargers in San Diego, reveals a very interesting matchup. A couple of years ago, if someone would’ve told me the Chargers will be struggling to run the ball I would’ve laughed in their face and called them an idiot—but that’s exactly what is happening.

The Chargers have an aging offensive line to go along with their declining star running back LT. Hampered by nagging injuries and age, LT is but a shell of his former self/ While I will point out he can still be productive, he needs a stellar line to make him more effective. In the past, LT could’ve made even the weakest offensive lines look good.

This will present a problem for the Chargers this Monday night. With a veteran defensive backfield and the league’s top pass rush, the Broncos will challenge the one-dimensional Chargers, who like the to drop back with five and seven-step drops.

The Chargers are coming off a bye week, so they had extra time to prepare for this matchup. And while they do boast an amazing passing attack, when your offense is that one-dimensional the advantage is definitely with the defense.

The Chargers’ problems do not end with the running game. In fact, their biggest issue lies in their porous defense. The run defense is has been heavily affected by the lack of production from Merriman and Phillips, but it’s the absence of Jamal Williams and the lack of depth behind him that is hitting them the hardest. 

The passing defense is a little better than last year’s, but the continued regression of CB Cromartie and the complete ineptitude of their safety play are worrisome. Added to the lack of a dominant pass rush, the defense as a whole leaves much to be desired.

As said before, the Chargers do have weapons on the edges in the form of Jackson and Gates, but the lack of a running game is troubling, to say the least. LT is showing his age and then some, the offensive line is once again regressing, and Sproles is not an every-down back. 

Sproles is more of a change of pace back, and even then he is not a true running back—he is better as a receiver out of the backfield. The Broncos’ run defense has been anything but porous and should be able to handle the Chargers’ running game with ease.

The Broncos should be able to go into San Diego and dominate Chargers and improve to a 6-0 record before heading to their bye week.

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A Tamed Stallion: Marshall Is No Longer a Bucking Bronco

Let’s turn the clock back a little less than fifty days to August 29.

Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall had just been suspended for conduct detrimental to the team, adding more salt to a still fresh wound for the Broncos.  The team a few months earlier had traded their disgruntled franchise quarterback to the Chicago Bears and now were dealing with their number one receiver demanding a trip out of Denver.

Now fast froward to the present day.

The Broncos are the surprise of the NFL standing atop the AFC West with a perfect 5-0 record.  Even more surprising is the fact that Marshall of all people has been the key player in the past two Broncos victories. Marshall made a spectacular run and catch for the go ahead touchdown against the Cowboys and just last Sunday scored the game-tying touchdown against the Patriots.

In other words, Marshall has gone from zero to hero amongst Broncos fans in less than sixty days.  So what has changed?

First off, everyone and their mother knew that Marshall had the skills to be an elite receiver in the NFL. His past two seasons both saw him with over 1,200 yards and more than 100 catches.   His talent was never in question.

What was in question was his ability to stay out of trouble off the field.  A “freak” accident last season involving him putting his arm though a television was one thing, but him serving a one game suspension (it was reduced from three games) at the start of last season served notice that he could be problem child.  His latest arrest this past March for disorderly conduct didn’t help matters, though the charges in that case were dismissed.

The creme de la creme, however, came this past offseason after Jay Cutler was traded. Marshall, allegedly upset over his contract, demanded a trade from Denver.  He had “trust issues” with the organization, and wanted out. 

His antics during training camp that were caught by TV cameras were the straws that broke the camel’s back and coach Josh McDaniels had no choice but to suspend Marshall for the remainder of the preseason.  People figured it was a matter of “when” Marshall would be out of Denver, not “if.”

Thankfully for the Broncos and their fans, McDaniels didn’t give up that easily.

What has occurred since has been one of the most remarkable in-season turnarounds by a player in league history.  Yes, the Broncos are winning and winning supposedly cures all, but what happens if the Broncos lose a couple games? Will Marshall revert to previous form and act like a petulant brat?

My money is on “NO.”

My reasoning for this? Two images from the win over the Cowboys.  First is the emotional embrace Marshall shared with McDaniels after he scored the winning touchdown and second is another embrace that Marshall and McDaniels shared during the coach’s post-game press conference. 

They a say a picture is worth a thousand words, and in this case two pictures are worth a million.

No one knows what words were exchanged between Marshall and McDaniels during their embraces, but what everyone should see is that a player can’t fake emotions like that.  Not even receivers like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco could create something like that and have it just be a show.

What Marshall and McDaniels shared was real, and the Broncos and their fans have every reason to believe Marshall has turned the corner and won’t be looking back. 

That is not to say he is completely out of the woods. Marshall’s challenge from this point forward is maintaining focus, especially if the Broncos make the Super Bowl. Success breeds attention and Marshall could easily become distracted and the off field issues could rear their ugly head again if Marshall loses concentration on the big picture.

That is where McDaniels comes in.  While he cannot and should not be Marshall’s personal babysitter, what McDaniels can do here is make sure Marshall is reminded of how miserable he once was and how happy he is right now. Marshall needs to keep growing as a player and a person and all should be well.

One of the biggest surprises this season has been that no “star wideout” like a Marshall, Owens, Moss, or Ochocinco has erupted into a display of public humiliation. It’s still early in the season and I bet one will happen.

But it won’t come from the guy named Marshall.

Follow Kris Burke on Twitter @KBurkeNFL

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I Didn’t Tell You So! Brandon Marshall Playing Exceptional Football

My 14 month-old son does a lot of things that remind me of sports fans, including myself.

Things happen that make him absolutely delirious with joy. Then, quite suddenly, something will happen that makes him scream and yell and cry with frustration. Or vice versa. Sometimes it swings back and forth so quickly I don’t know if he’s laughing or crying, yelping for joy or screaming in anger, or all of the above at the same time.

For me, part of the fun in being a sports fan is the freedom of acting like a kid again. As fans, we have license to scream and yell and be joyous when our team does well and be frustrated when our team does something we don’t like.

There are a lot ways toddlers and sports fans are alike, and I’m damn proud of it. The way the Broncos are winning close games in exciting fashion, it’s quite possible I will poop my pants before season end, although, unlike my son, I’d be on my own to remedy that situation.

This year, there is another kid-like thing I’m terribly tempted to do: say “I told you so!” The mainstream media articles all seem to mention how universally maligned McDaniels, Xanders, and Bowlen were prior to the 5-0 start. They would have you believe, it seems, that EVERY Denver Broncos fan hated every facet of what happened over the offseason.

The truth is that many Broncos fans thought the changes were for the better and that this year’s team would succeed. I was among the group that were glad to see a team-first mentality brought in, and if that meant Jay Cutler didn’t want to be here, so be it. 

Still, I can’t shout out a blanket “I told you so!” because I was dead wrong on what to do with Brandon Marshall. I didn’t think Marshall could change, and so I thought Denver should have completed the purge of “Me-First” players and traded him for whatever they could get. 

And, man, I was as wrong on that one as the haters were on McDaniels.

Brandon Marshall is, quite simply, playing the best football of his career.

How can that be? He was a Pro-Bowler last year and his numbers so far are down compared to 2008!?! Yes, Marshall was a Pro-Bowler last year, but it was arguably undeserved.

True, he had 104 catches for 1,265 yards and 6 TDs. Those are certainly Pro-Bowl-worthy numbers, except when you figure in that he was targeted 181 times. Normalize his stats for 2008 by the number of times he was targeted and they don’t look nearly as good.

He caught 57 percent of the passes thrown his way, which ranked 27th in the NFL. Only three percent of the passes thrown to Marshall in 2008 resulted in a touchdown—29th in the NFL.

Instead of looking at yards per catch (YPC), look at yards per targeted: In 2008, Marshall averaged just under seven yards each time he was targeted. By my calculations that ranked 34th in the NFL.

If you think grading receivers on a per-targeted basis is down right dumb, consider this: the top-rated receivers for 2008 (regular season only) when you factor in catch percentage, first-downs per targeted, touchdowns-per-targeted, and yards-per-targeted were:

Judging from that list, I’d argue it’s a very valid way to rank receivers.

So how is Marshall doing so far in 2009?

The following rankings are among the top-40 receivers in yards through week 5.

Statistically speaking, Marshall is performing far better than last year in terms of catch percentage and touchdowns-per-target. He’s just slightly better than 2008 in terms of yards and first downs each time he’s targeted.

Of course, stats don’t paint a complete picture—and they get boring real fast. One of the head scratching aspects of Marshall’s level of play in 2008 was that he wasn’t a very good red zone target. With his unique combination of size, strength, and athleticism Marshall should be a go-to-guy close to the end zone.

Last year he wasn’t.

This year has been a different story. Against New England, the Broncos targeted Marshall near the end zone and he responded by making two fantastic plays. In the Dallas game, he used his size, strength, and elusiveness to make a highlight reel catch and run for the game-winning score. Scary thing is, he’s just now becoming familiar with the offense and, as a result, being utilized more often.

He’s gone from pouting about his contract to showcasing his talent like never before. 

Marshall has mentioned the influence of teammates in getting him back on track, most notably Brandon Stokely and Brian Dawkins (surprise, surprise). But in my mind, the way McDaniels has dealt with Marshall just might be the young coach’s most amazing accomplishment so far.

I’ve supported the new Broncos regime from day one, but on this issue I have to say “I didn’t tell you so!”

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Dissecting the “Wild Horses” Success of the Denver Broncos

Let the Old Man Speak

So you like the modern game do ya there, sonny?

Well, sit on down and stay a spell so you can understand what the heck happened on Sunday when the Broncos went Wild Horses upside the Beantown Patriots.  In the meantime someone should get Shannon Sharpe on the phone and see if he’s ready to call the President…again.

The Broncos version of the wildcat offense is called the Wild Horses, and was integrated seamlessly into the Broncos’ game plan on Sunday’s victory against longtime foe the Boston Patriots in the AFL Legacy Game, as designated by the NFL.

In The Beginning…

In the beginning…well sort of, not really, but yes…sort of…okay, just be patient and let the meaning of all this be explained.

At its core, the wildcat offense is a scheme that is gimmicky in nature and designed to pose problems for defenses with unconventional methodologies behind its execution.

It is possible to trace the origins of the wildcat offensive scheme back to the early days of football in the United States starting somewhere in the 1920s.

In the early days of football, there was a number of what would be later known as full backfield attacks.  These schemes would place up to four backs behind the line of scrimmage in nearly any backfield position imaginable in order to create controlled chaos as a way for dissecting a defense and to expose weakness. 

This approach was adapted and refined by the Notre Dame’s Four Horsemen offense that featured Harry Stuhldreher, Don Miller, Jim Crowley, and Elmer Layden who played for legendary coach Knute Rockne.  This group was all freshmen in 1921, and got the offense going a year later as sophomores under Rockne.

As a short answer to a trivia question, their nicknames were coined by a sports journalist at the time, Grantland Rice, with the following excerpt from the famous article he wrote about the group.

In dramatic lore their names are Death, Destruction, Pestilence, and Famine. But those are aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Crowley, Miller and Layden.  

The offense eventually became popularly known as the Wing-T offense sometime around 1934.  It has also been credited back to originating out of six man high school football rules since the original person to touch the ball could not run past the line of scrimmage and had to get the ball to another player for advancement of the ball. 

This brought about the quick toss to a player who could advance the ball since early football had the original position that touched the ball listed as blocking backs instead of what is modernly known as the quarterback position.

The Wing-T usage becomes widespread, and eventually leads to a great deal more sophistication within the running game, new formations, and blocking schemes.  Derivatives of the Wing-T have been in use primarily at the high school and college levels since that time.  Offensive attacks like the wishbone and power-I option attacks derived out of this original formation of the Wing-T and Power Wing-T.

At the professional level, the run game and various formations are heavily studied by teams to gain competitive advantage over their opponents; so, the NFL version of the scheme is the ultimate key to success.  It’s the ability to keep the opponent on their heels and off-balance so plays have the chance to succeed in combination with other plays. 

It also boils down to a numbers game, instead of the usual 10 on 11 (minus the QB on offense), the wildcat gives the offense a dedicated 11 on 11 matchup against the defense called.  This generally favors the offensive rushing attack.

For a very long time in the NFL, however, these sorts of offensive approaches were ignored, in large part because the passing game had evolved so much since the early days.  This meant that teams needed a dedicated quarterback to run the offense.

In More Recent Times…

The meaning of the Wing-T in the modern day has more to do with an unbalanced line, a back who intends to run, and a special set of reads on how to execute the play.  Idealistically, these plays are run with the intent to create options on offense while causing problematic issues on defense.  At its core, this approach tests the dedication of a defenses dedication to each gap assignment.

In recent times, the University of Texas used an early version of today’s wildcat with Vince Young in the shotgun formation, making an option read on the defense.  The uniqueness here began with unbalanced line formations to make some reads easier and blocking more rudimentary.  Young would usually key on the defensive end and outside linebacker.  Based on their position, they were committing to either one set of actions or another.  This left the read up to the quarterback Vince Young.  He would then have the ability to handoff to a back, fake the handoff and run, or fake a run and even pass.

This system of thought is similar to what the solo back in the current, more popularized wildcat offense is responsible for.  The offensive line is usually unbalanced with only a running back in the backfield.  These plays can be run with a set of option reads, but are usually designed for a primary purpose in exploiting specific gaps along the defensive line.  One of the recent innovations by the Miami Dolphins was to run sweeps with reverse action out of the slot receiver position.  This, in essence, takes the place of the option read that was used at Texas.

The ideology behind this attack is about putting the ball in the hands of the most athletically talented players on the field, thereby opening up a number of available options on the field.  This can be done through play calls and creating sudden mismatches through motion or reads.  It can also key on defenders that cheat or play out of position enough to hurt their teams’ defense.

It is not the most glitzy offensive approach—there usually is a mass of humanity gathered in clusters—and so breaking through that can be a challenge for the offense.  The wildcat, however, because of this clustering has an ability to open up big plays if successfully executed.  It is precisely this inherent characteristic that makes the wildcat attractive to teams that could be outmatched in executing other offensive schemes.

While Michael Vick claims to have created the wildcat, that’s not entirely true.  The success of the wildcat can most successfully be traced to former Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator and current Miami Dolphins offensive coordinator Dan Henning.  In the third game of last season (2008), the Miami Dolphins faced the New England Patriots in a game, which, on paper, was a clear mismatch in favor of New England.  The Dolphins lined up either Ronnie Brown or Ricky Williams behind the center about six yards deep and gave them the option to run, handoff, or pass.  This gave the Patriots headaches all game long and the Dolphins came out on top 38-13 in this lopsided upset affair.

This set off a league wide implementation of some wildcat into a large number of team playbooks.  As of last weekend, 19 of the league’s 32 teams had some form of the wildcat in-house, thereby validating its potency, even at the NFL level.

Denver’s Wild Horses Implementation

Certainly, Denver is not the first team to implement the idea of quickly lining up in the wildcat with the quarterback split out wide.  They might not even be the only team to think of giving their quarterback the option to read the defense from the slot position and run the appropriate play.  They are, however, the Denver Broncos, and they came up with the term that will more than likely forever ensconce the idea upon the football world with two words: Wild Horses.

In a nutshell, the Wild Horses offense gives the quarterback the opportunity to read how the defense is lined up from other skill positions on the field prior to running a play.  This allows the QB to choose an appropriate execution option of the play call.

This is how the Broncos used the Wild Horses against New England on Sunday.

On the first play from scrimmage, Kyle Orton lined up as a receiver to the wide left side of the offense.  Running back Knowshon Moreno lined up just over six yards deep in the backfield.  New England was surprised, and checked out of their original defensive play call to a man cover-one, which brought their safety Brandon Meriweather out of cover-two down inside the box.  The safety Meriweather picked the right gap, but missed out on the tackle of Moreno.  The play winded up gaining 12 yards for the speedy and elusive Broncos running back. 

With this formation in mind, the Patriots lined up in the man cover-one again, anticipating more of the same trickery from the Broncos.  This again dedicated the safety to put eight defenders in the five-yard box between tight ends.  Kyle Orton liked what he saw and went under center with man-on-man coverage being shown.  Patriots’ safety Meriweather began to back off on the play, and Orton chose the opposite side, connecting on the pass for a short gain to Brandon Marshall.

This immediate play combination opened up the door for the Broncos when they ran a play out of their regular playbook to cross up the defensive pass coverage and Brandon Marshall was able to pick up a first down with a great run after catching the quick out route.

The Broncos then gashed the New England defense for five yards with another Wild Horses direct snap to Moreno.

The next play, quarterback Orton lined up on the right side of the offense wide, then went back under center, hooking up on a big pass play with tight end Tony Scheffler.  This again caused Meriweather to check out of the current coverage and out of the box. 

The net result was a first down, but the importance of it was that it kept the Patriots from disguising pass coverage because they were forced to deal with the option piece of the Wild Horses offense.

After another five-yard run out of Wild Horses by Moreno, New England Coach Bill Belichick had seen enough and wanted a timeout.  Following the timeout, New England had figured out they needed a dedicated eight men in the box pinching down towards the middle of the field to keep the Broncos from successfully running out of the single back formation.

Had the Broncos run an option pass at this point, with the defense clearly getting settled in after the timeout, the Broncos might have had more success after the short break.

The Broncos could not connect on a short pass on third and six, and were forced to settle for a long field goal attempt which they missed wide-right.

The concept however was proven, and did work against the Patriots defense.  It took New England out of their original defensive play calls, and put them on their heels.

The Broncos would use the offense again sparingly, but on this day, they proved their point.  They could allow their quarterback to get better pre-snap reads of the defense by allowing him to make option calls based on the defense’s alignment.

The Conclusion

This is certainly an offensive philosophy that will be used in the future by teams, though somewhat sparingly.  It will probably be implemented as a great teaching tool for young quarterbacks on all levels, and does provide an element of entertainment to the game of football on all levels.  It also has ways of inherently taking defenses out of their original game plans and forcing them to rethink how they will disguise coverages.  Just like the Wing-T and the wildcat, the Wild Horses is here to stay.

Contact Chaz at sportsmanagement@gmail.com

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Denver Broncos Turning into Remarkable Story at 5-0

So, this is what redemption is like?

Josh McDaniels found himself dancing around like a nerd who just got a date to the prom, and his Denver Broncos went to 5-0 after he beat his old boss. Pretty impressive.

Actually, that’s impressive on it’s own. Undefeated. Beating the old boss, and all in your first year as a head coach.

But what’s even more impressive, is how he did it, and what led up to it. With all the media attention swarming around McDaniels and his operations over the Jay Cutler fiasco, this team looked destined for a nightmarish season.

The the trade happened, the Broncos landed Kyle Orton (who would compete with Chris Simms), and we had no resolution about this “new New England-style” offense that McDaniels was installing.

In fact, no one can be sure if he even was confident in it. However, looking at him parading around the field after Matt Prater’s kick was good, you get the feeling he knew it all along.

He just hadn’t felt it yet.

But this isn’t luck. The week one spectacular tip-pass-and-run by Brandon Stokley-that, that might be luck. But these other four games and the way they played-out; it’s not even close.

And the rest of the offseason, the solid drafting, the trades, the free agent signings, and the handling of the Brandon Marshall situation. It was all executed perfectly. Almost like it was all planned.

But now, look at where McDaniels and Marshall are. They’re high-fiving and hugging on the sidelines. The star receiver in getting more involved with each passing week, which is making Kyle Orton look more and more like a reincarnation of a bearded, noodle-armed Tom Brady.

And despite not topping 30 points as an offense yet this season, it’s hard to say there’s really anything wrong with the way this team goes to work. Their running game is sublime. The blocking is solid, the quarterback position is well-coached, and until the Patriots game, Orton hadn’t thrown a pick.

But how did we really get here? How is it, that entering week six, we’re still discussing who will be the first team this Denver squad loses to?

Defense. It’s all about the defense. And while the offense that moves the ball gets the glory, the quarterback who tosses for 300+ yards gets the pictures, and the receivers who catch the touchdowns go on the posters, it’s the league’s number one-ranked defense that should be getting most of the credit.

Denver has completely suffocated opponents, shutting down team’s hefty rush offense, and only allowing four touchdowns through five games.

They have yet to give up more than 17 points. They have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. My friends, these Denver Broncos have yet to lose.

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