Week Two Gameplan: Broncos vs. Browns

The Denver Broncos are coming off of a game where Broncos nation was sure the team had lost until our depression turned to elation with a little luck and Brandon Stokley being in the right place in the right time.

Denver fans will happily take the win, but are expecting the Broncos to play better than they did last week when they take on the Browns this Sunday at Mile High.

The Browns have been a seemingly cursed franchise over the decades. The Browns won championship after championship in the AFL before the merger but have yet to win one since.

The curse continued for Browns fans when the infamous Art Modell moved the Browns team (players and all) from Cleveland to Baltimore in 1996 only to win the Super Bowl a few years later as the Ravens (2000).

Broncos vs. Browns has some cursed history for the Browns as well. Many will recall the ’86 and ’87 AFC Championship games. The Broncos won both times in dramatic form, first “The Drive” led by Elway in ’86, and then a game that is known by some as “The Fumble” in ’87.

In ’07 the Browns posted a 10-6 record and though they missed the playoffs things were looking up for the Browns once again, but they followed that season up with an uninspired 4-12 record last year. 

The Browns have a new head coach in Eric Mangini, a rebuilt defense this year, and though they lost their first game to the playoff bound Minnesota Vikings, the Browns are not the same team they were the past few seasons.

 

The Browns Offense

The Browns offense has the potential to be dangerous.

Quarterback

No. 10 Brady Quinn

Quinn is a talented young quarterback who can make all the throws and has something to prove. He also has a guy backing him up who made the Pro Bowl just two seasons ago named Derek Anderson.

If Quinn struggles, he could be replaced after this game, so he needs to play well. A guy under with that kind of pressure could fall apart or rise to the pressure.

 

Wide Receivers

No. 17 Braylon Edwards 6’3” 215 lbs

Braylon Edwards is a physical specimen. His height and size create a mismatch for almost any defensive back. But Edwards is known more for his dropped passes and missed opportunities than he is for his big plays as of late. He is capable of being one of the best receivers in the NFL, but has yet to realize his potential.

No. 16 Josh Cribbs 6’1” 215 lbs

Cribbs is one of the most explosive players in the NFL. He is probably the most gifted return man in the game, and in an effort to get the ball in his hands more, he is now starting at wide receiver for the Browns as well.

Running Back

No. 31 Jamal Lewis 5’11” 245 lbs

In 2003 Lewis ran for 2066 yards in a single season, and was just 39 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record. He has never come close to that mark again, but still Lewis is a bear of a running back, using a mix of size and power to grind out the tough yards.

Lewis supposedly has a neck injury, but I am sure he will be on the field this Sunday.

Offensive Line

Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, Alex Mack, Floyd “Porkchop”Womack, and John St. Clair make up the Browns offensive line.

The left side of the line is young and elite, the right side are wily veterans who know the tricks of the trade, and in the middle is a promising rookie center. Though unproven as a unit, the Browns have one of the better offensive lines in the game.

Denver’s Defensive Strategy

Cleveland has a stud in Josh Cribbs.

Containing Cribbs will be key to wining this game. Denver needs to kick the ball out of the end-zone on every kickoff, and punt the ball out of bounds on every punt to keep the ball out of the hands of the Browns’ best playmaker.

After Cribbs is contained, Denver needs to do what it did last week against Cincinnati, and put pressure on the young quarterback Quinn while simultaneously holding the line of scrimmage and stuffing the run.

As big of a potential threat as Edwards and Cribbs pose, they are no match for Denver’s seasoned secondary. So if Denver’s front seven can attack the Browns offense behind the line of scrimmage, the Bronco defense shouldn’t be on the field very long.

Look for Denver to be successful attacking the right side of the Browns offensive line getting pressure on Quinn and forcing him to scramble left against his throwing arm.

Haggan and Davis could see a few more sacks this week as a result of St.Cair’s aging abilities, on the flip side though Dumervil will have his hands full trying to get past perennial pro bowler Joe Thomas.

Though the schemes are no doubt different and the Browns are a different team this year Andra Davis should be ready to stick it to his former team this week.

If Denver can shut down the running game and not let Cribbs make plays on a screen, reverse or wildcat play, than Denver should be in good shape.

The Browns Defense

Coach Mangini brought some defensive talent with him from the Jets when he took over in Cleveland and in doing so he put together a more complete well rounded defense.

It all starts up front with Shaun Rogers who is largely considered one of the best nose tackles in the game. Though some have questioned his work ethic, he is effective at drawing double teams to open up opportunities for his teammates to make plays.

Rogers is flanked by Robaire Smith and Kenyon Coleman, who also do a great job of holding their ground and tying up their opponents.

Behind them is a great group of underrated yet very effective linebackers in K.Wimbley, D.Jackson, E.Barton, and D.Bowens. D’Qwell Jackson is the leader of this defense and is a tackling machine, he will be all over the field reeking havoc on passing and running plays alike.

The Browns also have a very respectable secondary with E.Wright, A.Elam, B.Pool and B.McDonald. Wright can hang with the best of them, and Elam is a hard hitter.  Beyond this though, their depth is a little thin.

Denver’s Offensive Strategy

Denver’s offense went nowhere last week against the Bengals. They just couldn’t get anything together. This was not so much due to the Bengals defense as it was due to the failures of Denver’s offense. Dropped passes, penalties, and holding the ball too long put the Broncos in a deficit of yards all too often for the entire game. Denver should be able to correct these errors though, as they were uncharacteristic of the players who made them.

After a lackluster preseason performance Buckhalter played like he did back in Philadelphia and made the most of his opportunities to run the ball when given the chance, and should be expected to do so again against the Browns who gave up over 200 yards rushing last week.

The rookie Moreno on the other hand did not impress, but the Broncos offense was barely on the field last week. Hopefully his lack of playing time in preseason didn’t stunt Knowshon’s growth in the NFL and he will take better advantage of the opportunities he receives this week.

Denver’s offensive line did not have a great performance in week one at all. Holding penalties and giving up three sacks is not what anyone expected from this highly touted group.

The loss of Chris Kuper to injury was really felt during the game, I think it messed with the line’s chemistry and communication in a bad way. Hopefully Kuper will be back this week to return some stability to the unit, but they all need to play much better, mistake free football.

Orton still needs to settle down and open his eyes. Too many times did I see his feet chopping, which doesn’t allow him to set up and deliver the ball. He needs to finish his drop and set himself in the pocket and use his eyes better to play the defense off his intended target.

Orton also needs to work on his mental clock. He tends to hold the ball too long, and he needs to know that he is out of time and get rid of the ball.

The good news with Orton is that he was smart with the football in Week One. He didn’t turn the ball over trying to force a throw that wasn’t there, unlike what a former Broncos quarterback used to do (He lost the game for his new team by throwing four interceptions).

Denver’s wide receiving corps needs to shake off some rust, too. Every single wide receiver on the field dropped a catchable ball last week against the Bengals. That is unacceptable and I expect that it was an aberration that we won’t see repeated this week at home in Mile High.

 

As long as Denver continues to protect the football and doesn’t give the game away with penalty’s and big plays created by Josh Cribbs, I think Denver has a very good shot at taking down the Browns this week in their home opener.

I give Denver the edge in this game because of Clevland’s lack of explosive offense, and the Broncos improved defense. The Mile High air doesn’t hurt either.

My prediction: Denver wins 20-13.

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Denver Broncos Film Study: Offensive Identity Search Begins vs. Bengals

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Sunday’s game in Cincinnati had yet another miracle finish in the opener for the Denver Broncos.  Fans may recall the amazing finish the Broncos had in Buffalo in 2007 when Jason Elam and the kicking team had to run onto the field with time running out.

Elam made the kick as time expired and the Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 15-14 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Sunday’s game in Cincinnati saw the 87-yard deflected pitch and catch to Brandon Stokley for the game-winning touchdown that won’t be forgotten in Denver anytime soon. It was an amazing finish to a game that really had the Denver Broncos searching for an identity on offense.

It’s not because they don’t have a viable scheme, because they do.  It’s not due to a lack of effort, because it’s there. It might be more about attention to detail, ironing out some more technical problem solving, and gelling as a team. 

Frankly, the Broncos’ coaching staff really needs to re-evaluate its play-calling from the preseason until now. There are some serious flaws being exposed in the offensive game plan and it takes momentum away from the team at crucial times in the game.

 

Offensive Film Summary

While Josh McDaniels has come from the New England Patriots and shaken things up in Broncos camp a great deal, he may be long remembered for what didn’t happen on offense. At least initially, he subtracted an arm that can hit any spot on the field in Jay Cutler and believed enough in Kyle Orton to help get his vision going in Denver.

Part of the way the Patriots do business offensively is that they spread the field and find ways to use the short pass game much in the way most teams use the run. Some may call it a dink-and-dunk philosophy, but it is about being a passing team first and a run team second.

This is at least contrary to the way coach Shanahan approached his system philosophy.  Much of the talent assembled offensively over the years was geared toward the zone run blocking scheme with a complementary pass game based on the quarterback’s abilities.

At this stage, given the renewed emphasis on defense, the Broncos have to find creative ways to make the run game matter. Currently, teams are more or less telling the Broncos to make Kyle Orton beat them while they cheat up to stop the run. 

This is sort of a complex, puzzled solution and one which requires a balanced attack.

 

What Actually Happened on the Field

The Broncos decided to start the game with two runs to Correll Buckhalter for which he gained eight and 14 yards, respectively. Not a bad start. What followed was a one-yard gain vs. seven defenders in the box. The Broncos then predictably went to their screen bubble package with a drop from Brandon Marshall. 

Regardless of the drop, the Bengal defense correctly read the play setup and rallied to shutdown the play. Had Marshall caught the ball, it would have been for a minimal gain.

On third down, Kyle Orton forced the ball into Brandon Stokley on a play that should have had illegal contact called against the Bengals. The ball wound up falling incomplete without a penalty against Cincinnati. 

The point here is that the Broncos cannot rely on the referees to give them the call and Orton therefore must find the open man. 

This is a primary criticism of the current offensive system. It requires the quarterback to be a supreme game manager and have a solid ability to keep from turning the ball over. 

To date, Kyle Orton has not proven that he is going to supremely protect the ball.  Moreover, he is not making good reads at this juncture. There were more than a few glaring miscues in this area on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.

On the second series, Knowshon Moreno entered the game but lined up in the I-formation nine yards deep on the first play then eight yards deep on the second play from scrimmage. 

On the first play, he gained four yards but could have hit the hole sooner. On the second play, he was shut down near the line of scrimmage.

Conversely, when Buckhalter got his first two carries, he lined up seven-and-a-half yards deep and seven yards deep, respectively. This allowed Buckhalter, the veteran, to hit the hole faster and find his way up field.

While it will be nice at some point to see what Knowshon Moreno can do, immediately alternating series before seeing what the veteran can do is a bad idea. The results are immediate and the Broncos’ run game starts to fall by the wayside.  

This eventually sets the Broncos up in another third and long where yet again Kyle Orton telegraphs his pass to Brandon Stokley in double coverage. The ball gets deflected at the line of scrimmage; two more Bengals converge as the ball falls incomplete with Stokley surrounded by four Bengals.

The third drive finds the Broncos in another third and long situation where Kyle Orton gets sacked with a chop block called against the Broncos, adding salt to the wound.

The fourth series saw a well thrown deep ball to Brandon Marshall go right through his hands. This set up another third and long that saw Orton connect with Jabar Gaffney after his second deflected pass for a minimal gain.

The fifth series finds the bubble screen make another appearance on second down as Eddie Royal gains eight yards. The very next play, however, Orton telegraphs and Eddie Royal is hit by two defenders on his short hook route as the ball falls incomplete.

The net result out of these two drives is that the Broncos’ defense is left out on the field for a very long period of time covering most of the first quarter. This has to be alarming to the Broncos on offense that they are leaving the defense out to dry. It was a theme that continued throughout much of the game.

Prior to the final drive of the first half for the Broncos, they had netted 39 total yards on offense. This is unacceptable for a high-flying offense to struggle as much as the Broncos did, even in the early going. Kyle Orton has to assume the responsibility through his future actions as quarterback.

Fortunately, the final drive of the half resulted in three points. The highlight of the drive was a 20-yard out to Jabar Gaffney which setup the first long Matt Prater field goal on the day before the half. Just prior to that, Correll Buckhalter was the featured back again for the first time since the team’s first series and he helped the Broncos to finally start moving the ball.

The first series of the second half really encapsulated where the Broncos are now as a team under Kyle Orton. Knowshon Moreno started the second half instead of Buckhalter. Moreno tripped out of the backfield on one down. 

Finally, on 3rd-and-13, Orton almost immediately locks onto Brandon Marshall running a short eight to 10 yard out after lining up tight left. Marshall winds up being double covered while Brandon Stokley is wide open running the seam route. Stokley has about a ten yard buffer of space on each side of him as he runs the route. To not find him on a 3rd-and-long is inexcusable.

Orton has shown he is a system quarterback, but appears to be timid in the pocket. Kyle starts by locking on his usual primary without recognizing the coverage. It’s almost as if he’s too afraid to sit in the pocket longer to find the right read. This is very dangerous for Orton and the Broncos. There really is no excuse for these sorts of shallow reads. 

These types of poor reads occur because the quarterback is too focused on the play-calling and not what the defensive scheme is currently in or rolling to. Kyle needs to really read the defense pre-snap and go from there.

On the second series of the second half, Knowshon Moreno lines up seven-and-a-half yards deep while having his best run of the day. He gained seven yards and was introduced to the NFL by former Dallas safety Roy Williams, who put a serious hit on him. Moreno was dinged on the play and did not return to the game.

The next drive really went nowhere, but thanks to Matt Prater the Broncos were now up 6-0 in a game their offense had no business being in.

The highlight offensively clashed with the low lights on the fourth drive of the second half. The Broncos started to move the ball, but penalized themselves on a number of downs. On 3rd-and-16, Kyle Orton was sacked, nullifying all the good the team did to get into winning position.

The final drive is now headline news, but the thing that stands clear is the telegraphing of Kyle Orton and predictability of the offensive scheme. Both are to blame for what followed next. 

On first down, Orton throws a 10-yard out to Brandon Marshall near the sidelines with less than 40 seconds left in the game. The ball is nearly picked off by one of two Bengal DBs in the area. 

On the next play, the Broncos benefited from the triple team on Brandon Marshall when the ball was deflected to Brandon Stokley, who raced 87 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

 

Offensive Scheme:  C-/D+

Any time your play-calling is predictable, your play-calling is average at best. Only because the Broncos won did this score not get worse.

 

Play-Calling:  C- 

There is a clear need for improvement, however some of the improvement can come by Kyle Orton making the right reads and pre-snap adjustments. The Broncos should line up under center; their strength is not in the spread offense. 

Moreover, they should limit the bubble screen packages or use them sparingly. One of Orton’s bubble screen passes was almost intercepted. That should tell the staff that teams are catching on.

 

Third Down Conversions:  D-

The Broncos were pitiful on third down, going 3-for-12 (25 percent), which is just unacceptable.

 

The Red Zone:  F—

There was one?

 

Kyle Orton’s Grade: C

Give Kyle credit for having a gritty game, but he could have made his team’s day a whole lot easier by reading the defense pre-snap. Instead, he chose the easy check downs and it cost the Broncos in the long run. Kyle telegraphed a majority of his big passes. This also is unacceptable.

 

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Broncos-Browns Preview: Keys to Victory For Denver In Week Two

The Denver Broncos (1-0), coming off of their craziest victory in a long time, head home for Week Two to face off against the Cleveland Browns (0-1), who last weekend were crushed by Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings.

Many say the Broncos are “lucky” to be undefeated right now because of what is being referred to as the “Immaculate Deflection.” But if that catch happened in the first or second quarter, people would be talking about how the Broncos had a dominant defensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals.

This week at Invesco Field at Mile High, the Broncos will play host to a Browns team characterized by the phrase, “The future is now.”

Cleveland has a bevy of young players, a new head coach, and a fanbase desperate for a return to the postseason. 

The Browns boast one of the NFL’s best left tackles, kick returners, and wide receivers, along with one of the more athletic defensive linemen I have ever seen. I am, of course, talking about Joe Thomas, Joshua Cribbs, Braylon Edwards, and Shaun Rogers.

But despite the talent that the Browns possess, they have been vast underachievers over the last decade. The 2009 season appears to be no different, especially as they try to get Brady Quinn acclimated to his first full season as a starting quarterback.

All of this being said, the Broncos hold the clear statistical advantage over the Browns. 

Offensively, the Broncos hold the edge in total yards and passing yards.

Defensively, Denver bests Cleveland in total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, points allowed, third down conversions allowed, and turnovers.

The most interesting statistic I came across was that the Broncos and Browns are tied in terms of third-down conversions on offense.  As Bronco fans well know, Kyle Orton and company were only able to convert on three third downs. The Browns similarly struggled to move the ball on offense.

All of this being said, let’s take a look at the key matchups the Broncos will have to win to obtain a victory at home on Sunday.

 

Broncos’ Special Teams vs. Joshua Cribbs

To me, this is a key matchup.  Cribbs already proved why he was a Pro Bowl return man last season.  He can cause serious problems for opposing defenses by giving his offense great field position.

Cribbs is extremely versatile, fast, and deceptively powerful as a return man.  The Broncos will undoubtedly have their hands full.  Head Coach Josh McDaniels had this to say about Cleveland’s All-Pro performer:

“He is the best in the league, in my opinion. He and [Chicago WR Devin] Hester are certainly guys that, when they touch the ball—I don’t care if it is on offense or in the kicking game—you have got a chance to score if you are on their sideline. [He is a] very explosive player, hard to tackle, great vision, and awareness in the return game.”

“Sometimes, he may not go where the return is blocked to go because he sees that people are over-pursuing or squeezing too hard. We are going to have a huge challenge with him because he is so dangerous, so explosive. If you are playing in tight games and that guy is back there returning kicks, it could be one play that changes the result of the game. [He is] one of the most dangerous players we will play all year, no doubt about it.”

Broncos punter Brett Kern saw a lot of action on Sunday against the Bengals and sources have indicated that Denver was not extremely impressed with his performance.  In fact, the Broncos brought in a couple of punters, including Britton Colquitt, for a tryout this week.

Kern’s average of just around 42 yards per punt is not great. He is going to need to get a lot of hangtime on his kicks in order to keep Cribbs in check.

Unless wind is a major factor, kickoffs should not be a problem. Matt Prater is able to consistently drive the ball out of the end zone, especially in the thin air of Denver.  Punts are a different story.   

 

Broncos’ Pass Defense vs. Brady Quinn

The Broncos were able to shut down Carson Palmer, for the most part, in their win last week in Cincinnati.  Early indications are that they will have no problems with Brady Quinn and the Browns’ receivers, including Braylon Edwards, Mike Furrey, Mohamed Massaquoi, and Brian Robiskie.

If I had to guess, I would say the matchups will be as such:

Champ Bailey—Edwards

Andre’ Goodman—Furrey

Alphonso Smith—Massaquoi, Robiskie, etc.

I think the Broncos match up favorably in this area and, because of that, I expect Cleveland to come out running the ball early and often—a perfect lead-in to my next matchup.

 

Broncos’ Run Defense vs. Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis was shut down against the Vikings, who have one of the better run defenses in the league led by Kevin and Pat Williams.  The Broncos, obviously, do not have defensive tackles of that caliber, but they proved against the Bengals that they are far more capable against the run than they are credited for.

The Broncos’ run defense was impressive throughout the preseason, and they followed it up by holding Bengals running back Cedric Benson to 76 yards on 21 carries.  (And 20 of those yards came on one run.)  For those keeping score at home, that is 3.6 yards per carry.  If you take out Benson’s 20-yarder, Denver held him to roughly 2.5 yards per carry.

Jamal Lewis is a load for opposing defenders to take down, but it appears the Broncos have the personnel to defend against him. 

He may break a big run, maybe two, but the Broncos should be able to keep Lewis in  check for the most part throughout this game.

If they can do that, they will force Cleveland to pass, opening up the game for the rush linebackers and defensive linemen that can pin their ears back and pressure Quinn.

The gameplan for the Browns is probably similar to this one, oddly enough.  Looking at the Broncos, it seems the most effective way to win will be to shut down Denver’s running game and pressure Kyle Orton.

 

Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter vs. Browns’ Run Defense

This is going to be a huge matchup for the Broncos, and one that could neutralize the Browns’ tactics defensively.

I fully expect the Broncos to come out running the ball in the early stages of this game. Cleveland’s run defense, well, they could not stop Adrian Peterson to save their jobs on Sunday.

The Broncos have a completely healthy Knowshon Moreno, and Correll Buckhalter seems to be running inspired lately.

If the Broncos can establish the run early, the passing game will set itself up.  Orton needs pressure taken off of him, and he has proven throughout the preseason and even at times on Sunday that he can be effective with time in the pocket.

 

If the Broncos can establish the run early on, they should be able to control the game from the outset.  Denver appears to have a superior defensive unit.  If they can keep Brady Quinn under pressure, they can come away from their first home game with a victory and improve to 2-0.

Here is a position-by-position breakdown the two teams’ advantages:

Quarterback:  Browns

Running Back:  Push

Wide Receiver:  Broncos

Tight Ends:  Broncos

Offensive Line:  Broncos

Defensive Line:  Browns

Linebackers:  Broncos

Cornerbacks:  Broncos

Safeties:  Broncos

Specialists:  Browns

 

My Pick:  Broncos

 

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Week 2: NFL Picks and Predictions

If you look over at my blog site (www.sports-uncut.com) and look at my week one picks, you’ll see that I missed only two picks last week, which makes my record coming into this week a very sleek-looking 14-2.

I pick the games every week.  Have for years, and last year was my best effort, finishing right at 80 percent.  This year I’m looking to beat that personal best. 

When I pick the games, I do so from a win/lose, matchup standpoint, meaning, I don’t factor in the lines and who’s favored by what.  It’s just a straight up who’s gonna win it.  So, I’m shooting for another 12+ win record this week….let’s get to it!

 

Week 2 NFL picks:

Record from previous Week (1): 14-2

Record coming into Week(2): 14-2

Overall record: 14-2

 

Games:

Sunday Sept. 20, 2009

·           Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Houston looked absolutely dreadful in their opener at home.  Andre Johnson, who in my opinion is maybe the best WR in the league, was a complete non-factor.  Maybe that was because there was no one to take some of the attention away from him, or maybe it was just that Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, and the rest of that team flat out stunk. 

This week, they go to Tennessee and face the Kerry Collins-led Titans, and I don’t think it gets any better for them.  Tennessee’s D is too tough and the Texans certainly look beatable. 

Verdict: Tennessee gets it done at home.

 

·                New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams looked stellar in Week 1.  Drew Brees owned the Lions D, to the tune of six TD’s and 350+ passing and 45 points.  The Eagles looked pretty good in their opener as well, easily beating the Panthers and interception prone Jack Delhomme. 

This week could be different though.  The game IS in Philly at Lincoln Financial Field, and the Saints D IS beatable.  However, the questions surrounding Donovan McNabb and whether or not he’ll play worry me. 

Without him, they’re just not the same, and Kevin Kolb has done nothing to impress me since he’s been in the league.  Garcia could play, and frankly, that’s a better option than Kolb. 

If McNabb plays, which it sounds like he will from what I’ve heard, the Eagles offense will be too much for the Saints D to stop. If he doesn’t play, the sledding becomes a bit more difficult.

Verdict:  The Eagles get a win and go to 2-0.

 

·                  Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cardinals looked like a different team from the last time we saw them suit up for real against the Steelers in the Super Bowl.  They looked lost, and completely out of sync offensively and defensively, they looked pretty pedestrian.

That said, the Jags looked equally as unspectacular as Arizona did in their defeat at the hands of Indianapolis.

Both teams worry me a bit right now for a couple of reasons:

1.  Mediocre QB play.

2.  Lackluster Defensive play.

So, in situations like this, I look at the team that has the most potential to do some serious damage.  Arizona is a sleeping giant, and once this team gets on track, that O will come back to life.  I look for a rebound this week.

Verdict:  The Cards win in a blowout.

 

·                 Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

The lowly Raiders visit the equally unimpressive Chiefs in this AFC West match-up.  I’ve been pretty outspoken in saying that this division is the worst in Football, which is why it’s good to own Philip Rivers in your fantasy league…..I digress though.

One bad team plays another bad team and less worse of the two gets the win.

I like what KC did against the Ravens, hanging tough for a while and making it a game.  If they can do that again against the Raiders, like they should be able to, they’ll get the win.

Verdict:  Kansas City wins…barely.

 

·                 Cincinnati Bengals @ Green Bay Packers

The Bengals got beat at home by the Broncos on what can only be considered as the ‘Immaculate Deflection” when Kyle Orton found Brandon Stokley on an 87-yard TD.  However, they’re lucky that the game was that close.

Denver’s inability to execute was almost as bad as Cincy’s, and had the Broncos been functioning correctly, they would have killed the Bengals because they were deplorable.

Coversely, Green Bay punked the whiny one himself, Jay Cutler, by picking him off four times and making that offense look silly.  Aaron Rodgers wasn’t stellar, but was good enough to win. 

I think this week we’ll see the full power of the Green Bay Packers offense and I expect them to dominate defensively as well.

Verdict: Green Bay absolutely mauls the Bengals

 

·                 Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

OK, it’s Minnesota and Mr. All Day, Adrian Peterson against the Lions.  Do I really need to explain this one?

Verdict: The Vikings get an easy Win in the Motor City.

 

·                 St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins

The Rams have so little in the way of offense, I would venture a guess that Detroit may have better options, aside from S-Jax of course.  I almost feel bad for that guy, because if he was on a decent team, he’d be amazing.

Washington was underwhelming in their loss to the Giants, but, it was the Giants.  The same Giants who’ll probably end up having a Top 5 defense.

I expect Campbell, Portis, Moss, and Cooley to get on track this week.  Jim Zorn will have them ready to go and I think they’ll get a much-needed win at home.

Verdict: Skins’ win pretty easy and Campbell actually looks like a real QB.

 

·           New England Patriots @ New York Jets

I WASN’T very impressed with the Patriots and what they showed on Monday night.  Frankly, Leodis McKelvin basically gave them that game. 

Brady was solid, as was Moss, but, Brady looked tentative and that’s to be expected, to some degree, after an injury like that.

I WAS impressed by what the rookie, Mark “Dirty” Sanchez showed me last week.  He looked fairly poised, and pretty comfortable in the pocket.  Thomas Jones was great, the offensive line looked good and the D was pretty solid.

This could be a sneaky good game, and I expect it to be a close one.  It’ll really come down to how the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets play Defense, and if they can stymie Tom Brady and the Pats’ O the way Buffalo did.

Verdict: New England wins in a very close game.

 

·           Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Panthers looked like a bunch of clowns on Sunday afternoon, particularly Jake Delhomme.  He was simply awful. 

Awful to the point where people were questioning his “Starter” role.  In fairness to Delhomme, his offensive line wasn’t good and gave him little time to do anything, but, that performance was unacceptable.

The Panthers are in shambles, Steve Smith looks a lot older in just one year, and aside from DeAngelo Williams, they don’t have much else.  The Falcons, on the other hand, are LOADED with offensive talent, and defensively, they appear to have turned the corner.

Matt Ryan looks phenomenal, “The Burner” Mike Turner is a bonafide stud and Roddy White is an emerging superstar.  This team is poised to go far.

Verdict: Atlanta gets the W.

 

·           Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills looked really good against the Patriots, and had Leodis McKelvin not decided to try and be Superman, the Bills would have stolen a Win IN New England.

The Bills played D, Terrance McGeee looks to be an elite CB and the linebackers are as stout as any in the league. 

The one question I have is whether or not Trent Edwards can really be the guy?  He looked good Monday and we’ll see if that carries over.  They’ll likely try to get TO a couple more touches this week, and against that Tampa 2 D, it shouldn’t be too tough.

Verdict: Tampa sucks….Buffalo gets the Win.

 

·           Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

This is my game of the week!  This is going to be a very good game and I’m a little torn about which way to go as of now.

I like what Seattle showed last week.  But, keep in mind that was against the Rams.  Either way, Hasselbeck looked good, and John Carlson has emerged as a game changing TE.

I picked the 49ers last week, because I though defensively, they matched up well against the Cards.  Shaun Hill is just good enough to NOT lose the game and provide the occasional big play and Frank Gore is a stud.

This is going to be a great game, and I expect the 49ers D to play tough and the Seahawks D to match the intensity.

Verdict: Seattle wins a close game.

 

·           Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers

One thing I can tell you for sure, is that BOTH of these teams will be much better this week.  Baltimore will be better defensively and San Diego will improve on their performance against the Raiders from Monday night.

The question is now; who improves more? 

That’s a tough one to answer, but Baltimore’s D is getting older, and the Chargers have some emerging players.

One in particular, is Vincent Jackson, who could end up being a Top 5 WR by season’s end.  This is going to be a tough game, and Merriman has to play like his old self, and the Charger D has to step up.

Verdict: I think Philip Rivers and the Chargers get a big W

 

·           Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears

This is going to be a defensive battle, but, I think points will be scored.  Chicago is missing it’s heart and soul now with Brian Urlacher being out for the year, and Pittsburgh is missing it’s soul with Troy Polamalu being out as well.

I think Pittsburgh is vulnerable to the pass out of certain sets, but, with little help from his WR’s and TE’s, Jay Cutler won’t be able to capitalize on that. 

I think Santonio Holmes will have a decent night, but with the pressure being applied by Chicago, look for Heath Miller to be involved early.

Verdict: Pittsburgh gets a road win

 

·           Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

If this were 1986, you’d be talking about one hell of a game coming up. However, it’s not, and we’re certainly not talking about one hell of a game here. 

This is a battle of two average to bad teams.  Cleveland has been in limbo since their last playoff appearance in 2004, and Denver has been reeling since then as well.

I think in this game, based off of what we saw in both teams’ openers, we’ll see some improvement from both squads. 

That said, Denver’s O is scary bad and Cleveland’s showed the ability to score.  Denver’s D looks better than Cleveland’s, but, Cleveland’s isn’t as bad as it once was either.

Verdict: Browns get an ugly win in Denver.

 

·           New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

For no reason in particular, other then the fact that it’s the home opener in the new stadium, I think the Cowboys are going to be tough.

The early estimates say that 110,000 people will be in the “House that Jerry Built” and if that’s the case, that creates homefield advantage like a mother!

It’ll be a decent game, and a good one for the league.

Verdict: Dallas wins their home opener.

 

Monday Sept. 21, 2009

 

·           Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

This should be a solid match-up for the discerning Monday Night Football fan.  Peyton Manning was solid if unspectacular in the opener, and Miami was decent in their loss.

I expect to see Ronnie Brown get more touches this week, something around 22-25 and run on that Colts D that let MJD run all over them a week ago.  This will come down to who scores more.

Verdict: Peyton Manning dismantles Miami’s D and gets the W

 

So, there’s my picks for Week 2.  Good luck!

 

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Broncos Answer Questions in the First Game

With one game under our belts, we have some answers to the questions that I posted last week. We also have some incomplete answers and new questions.

Run Defense

While the results are preliminary, I think the Broncos answered this question. It may not be championship-caliber, but the Broncos’ run defense has definitely improved over the last few years. In 2008, even the most average of running backs would gash the Broncos for nearly five yards per play.

While the Broncos are sure to face stiffer tests this year, Cedric Benson was held to a manageable 76 yards on 21 carries to average 3.6 yards per carry with a long of 20. The rest of the Bengals gained 10 yards on six carries.

Pass Rush

Again, it is only one game, but the Broncos were able to get to Carson Palmer. After recording only 26 sacks in 2008, recording three sacks against the Bengals is a step in the right direction.

While there is room for improvement, the signs continue to be positive. All of the sacks were recorded by linebackers, so a stiffer push from the front three would be an area for improvement. After watching the futility of the past few years, this was a welcome sight.

Kyle Orton

Kyle Orton’s performance was questionable. The support from his receivers was not good. It will be very difficult to manage a game if the receivers are dropping passes and the running backs are not effective.

Without the 87-yard pass to Brandon Stokley, Orton’s numbers were rather mediocre. He held the ball too long and needs to make quicker decisions.

The one unquestionable positive to take away is he did not commit any turnovers. It is also likely that he was feeling the effect of his injured finger and loss of practice time over the past few weeks. As Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno have more practice time, the offensive efficiency should improve.

Josh McDaniels

This is a long-term question that we will not have an immediate answer to. For an offensive coach, the offense was not all that impressive. There is still much work to be done in improving efficiency. The one thing McDaniels will be judged on is wins and losses, and he came away with a win.

New Question

I will add a new question to the list. After holding the Bengals scoreless for the first 54 minutes, the Broncos allowed the Bengals to put together a 91-yard, 11-play drive, nearly ruining an otherwise outstanding effort.

In the preseason, the Broncos allowed Chicago to perform a similar feat. This is an area that will need to be improved if the Broncos are going to win close games.

All in all, Broncos fans should be encouraged. They have to realize coming away from this game with a win was very fortunate. The Bengals are most likely not a playoff-caliber team and beating them is not indicative of a great season.

However, the defense played well enough to keep them in a game in which the offense was only able to score six points in the first 59 minutes. How many times has that happened in the past two years? While there is much work to be done on the offense and in the return game, there are positives to build on.

If the Broncos can continue to build over the next few weeks, they will have much more confidence going into the toughest part of their schedule.

They have a very winnable game at home against the Browns before taking on the Raiders on the road and the Cowboys at home. It only gets tougher from there, so they need to notch the wins while they can.

 

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Last Minute Touchdown Aside, New Look Denver “D” Debuts Well

It wasn’t much more than a month ago that I predicted that the Broncos’ defensive line didn’t have the talent needed for the transition they were making to the 3-4. In fact, I basically expected them to be a bust right from the start.

Okay. So it’s going to take more than one game to change my prediction, or at least to make me admit I was wrong, but even I’m not stubborn enough to see that the defense couldn’t have played much better than they did on Sunday. 

In the first game of the Josh McDaniels era, Denver struggled to move the ball against the athletic Cincinnati defense. Other than Brandon Stokley’s history making 87 yard touchdown reception in the final seconds, the Kyle Orton-led offense scored only 6 points through four quarters.

So it’s a very good thing that the Broncos’ defense was there to pick up the slack.

Wait a minute, scratch that. The Broncos’ DEFENSE picked up the slack? Let’s put that in perspective for a moment.

Last year, the offense had to play out of their mind every week just to give the Broncos a chance. In 4 of their 8 victories, the Broncos had to score more than 20 points to make up for the defense’s embarrassing inefficiencies. Only twice did the Denver “D” hold opponents to less than 15 points (14 and 13).

The Broncos didn’t win a game where they scored 10 points or less. In fact, they were blown out in all 3 games that they failed to reach more than ten points, courtesy of the Pats, Raiders, and Panthers. Yes, that’s right, the god damn Raiders.

If last year’s team only scored 6 points in a game, they would have had absolutely no chance to win. That was just the depressing reality that the Broncos had reached under Mike Shannahan.

Under Josh McDaniels, the man behind the Patriots’ record-setting offense, everyone knew things would be different this year. But to win a game in which the offense can only put up 6 points? That’s just ridiculous.

The defense held a mostly healthy Carson Palmer to just 247 years passing and picked him off twice. Ochocinco caught 5 balls for 89 yards, but never scored a touchdown. Cedric Benson carried 21 times for 76 yards, but take away his 20 yard run and he carried 20 times for only 56 yards, an average of 2.8 yards per carry.

And just take a look at the result of the Bengals nine series’ before the touchdown: punt, turnover on downs, interception, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt.

Thanks to the strong play of the front three, the linebackers roamed free for much of the game, stifling the Bengals’ running game and sacking Palmer 3 times. Brian Dawkins had 7 solo tackles and was involved in almost every play.

Bottom line; not only does this unit appear to be light years ahead of the one from last season, but it kept the Broncos in a position to win the game. That in itself is the most promising sign to come out of Dove Valley in quite some time.

Still, its too early to get overexcited. Even if the defense can play this well against Cleveland, and after the way Brady Quinn played last week there’s no reason to think they can’t, the real test will be whether or not the Broncos “D” can survive the season.

Or maybe its the offense we should all be worried about now. Really I just don’t know anymore.

 

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Early Thoughts on the Denver Broncos’ Home Opener Against Cleveland

Pending the results of a defensive struggle between the Chargers and Raiders (laughs out loud) the Denver Broncos (1-0) will return home to face the Cleveland Browns (0-1) tied for second in the NFL in defense.

Yes everyone, you read that right: Defense.

Inversely, Cleveland comes to the Mile High City tied for third worst in the NFL in scoring defense after surrendering 34 points to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, 21 of which came on rushing touchdowns by Mr. All Day himself, Adrian Peterson.

The Broncos are in need of an offensive explosion, or maybe just a little pop after Sunday’s performance in which the Broncos were only able to obtain 10 first downs.

Against the Browns, the Broncos are facing a seemingly improved pass defense and a run defense that, well, was flat out embarrassed by Minnesota.

After two runs by Correll Buckhalter went for first downs against Cincinnati, it seems crucial that the Broncos blueprint their offensive attack for Sunday with running plays.  Despite a rocky finish to the game in terms of carrying the ball, the Broncos handed the ball off to their two primary ball carriers a total of 16 times, which is unacceptable.

The inability to effectively run the ball was the demise of the Broncos’ passing game, which actually made a lot of good plays throughout the course of their first contest, namely a clutch play by Kyle Orton to roll out and hit Daniel Graham on a long pass play.

The Broncos are going to have their hands full with the likes of Brady Quinn, Braylon Edwards, and Jamal Lewis, and their defensive plan should be centered around flustering Quinn early.  Jamal Lewis is not the same player he was five or six years ago, and it is apparent that the most improved aspect of Denver’s defense is against the run.

If the Broncos can pressure Quinn, they will force him into bad throws and their defensive backfield will take advantage.  Denver has the clear advantage in receiver/defensive backs matching up, and the Cleveland tight ends are mediocre at best.

It seemed as though Denver was using five linebackers in passing situations at times against the Bengals, and I expect to see a lot of the same on Sunday.  Wesley Woodyard did an excellent job playing a hybrid linebacker/safety role, and ended up with an interception on a tipped pass.

Essentially, these are just my random thoughts heading into the Broncos’ week two matchup, but I think some of these are key aspects:

1. It is fine if Orton manages the game, but he needs to orchestrate longer drives.
2. The running game needs to get going, and early.
3. Pressure Quinn early, force turnovers/punts.
4. Take advantage of youthful secondary.

After a miracle victory in week one, the Broncos head into their first home game of the 2009 campaign full steam ahead with confidence and need to ensure that this high is not short lived.

The cohesiveness of this offense depends largely on the production that is/was/will be expected of the wide receivers and tight ends of Denver.  For so long, the Broncos have established a solid running game to set up the pass, but it seemed like they were trying to rely on Kyle Orton’s arm too much.  

Yet another intriguing matchup, and one that the Broncos cannot overlook.  Cleveland and their fans are looking for redemption in week two, and the Broncos cannot let the Browns catch them riding a high.

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Denver’s Unlikely Win Raises More Questions Than It Answers

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you saw what happened yesterday in the waning moments of the Denver Broncos-Cincinnati Bengals game.

Even if you didn’t see it, you probably heard the call from Gus Johnson while you were in the kitchen making that bologna sandwich thinking all hope for a win was lost.

And, while the Denver Broncos snuck out of Paul Brown stadium with a W, there are more questions surrounding this team now than there were 48 hours ago.

The Broncos came into this season with a lot of questions surrounding their team—not only from a personnel standpoint, but also from a coaching and management standpoint as well, especially concerning the offseason moves made by the new regime.

And, while some would tell you that with this win, they’ve hushed critics or answered these questions, I’d say this: Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. 

Yes, they’re 1-0. Good for them. 

But, don’t forget what it took to get that win—an answered prayer to the football gods from someone who’s clearly been living right. Who that was, we’ll never know. But, it worked. 

The Broncos face one of the toughest schedules in the league this season and anything more than four or five wins will be surprising, especially if we continue to see offensive play like what we saw on Sunday against the Bengals. 

The Broncos offense was stagnant throughout the entire game, and looked almost lost at times.   

Their running game was below average, putting up a whopping 75 yards on 20 carries from five different ball carriers (Orton included).  Their passing game was lackluster, and aside from the 87 yard TD pass…err…deflected reception, Orton was 16-for-27 with 156 yards passing. 

Really, with the exception of the defense, there wasn’t much to be happy about watching that game if you’re a Broncos fan.

The questions being asked at Dove Valley right now are completely warranted at this point, and they require answers. Serious, honest answers that likely won’t be given from McDaniels considering his tight lipped, Belichick-esque approach to running a football team. 

It seems as though the paradigm has shifted in Denver. All through camp and the preseason, the bulk of the questions were aimed at Mike Nolan and his defense, with an exception being given to McDaniels’ offense. 

After their performance against the Bengals, Nolan’s defensive unit seems to have answered a great deal of the questions, while the offense begs more. 

We knew coming in that there were questions about Kyle Orton and whether or not he could run McDaniels’ complex, high octane offense, and how he would fit into that system. 

McDaniels answered that in the preseason by saying, “Kyle Orton will fit well in this system because he can manage the game.” 

Well, he did that in week one, and without a brilliant stroke of luck, he wouldn’t have done much against one of the defenses ranked among the worst in the league.  Now that question becomes: How good really is McDaniels’ offense without star players? 

Without Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Tom Brady, how good is it?

I’d like to state for the record that I like Kyle Orton, and I think (provided the offense get’s on track) that his numbers this season, will virtually mirror Jay Cutler’s in Chicago.  Neither of them project to be stellar this season, but both should be good.

Here in Denver, you’re also already hearing people chirp about McDaniels’ ability to effectively game-plan against someone, and his ability to recognize weaknesses and take advantage of them. 

Were there moments play calls should have been a little different? Sure. That said, I thought for his first go round, McDaniels did a fine job, especially knowing the challenge rules and having time added back on to the clock, which allowed the most improbable play of the season to happen.

But, the execution, or lack thereof, from the offense has to be a source of concern for McDaniels and the rest of the Broncos organization. 

Denver hired McDaniels, who’s billing was that of an “Offensive Mastermind” to make the Broncos an offensive powerhouse, and that’s where Bowlen went wrong.  The offense was already a powerhouse (Top 5 last season), it was the D that needed help. 

Alas, it is what it is, as Todd Bertuzzi would say.

Bottom line is this:

It was an ugly game, and the Broncos got an ugly win. I’m sure that McDaniels and the rest of the franchise understands that with the foes coming up on the schedule—N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles, and the AFC West matchups—there’s no room for poor play like what we saw against Cincinnati.

At this point, everything in Bronco Country is good, the offensive issues will be brushed under the rug for another time, and the defense will be placed upon their pedestal for the week until the first let down comes. 

Then these questions will all come back to the surface, and let’s hope that McDaniels will have an answer.

 

 

 

 

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Broncos 12, Bengals 7: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Still in a state of disbelief after yesterday’s loss to the Denver Broncos, I am going to attempt to compile a list of positives and negatives regarding the Cincinnati Bengals’ opening game. So, here it is: the good, the bad, and the ugly.

 

The Good

I was very impressed with the Bengals’ defense. The attitude and intensity that Mike Zimmer has them playing with is something we haven’t seen in Cincinnati for some time. Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga are the type of players that opposing offenses fear.

It was nice to see Carson Palmer on the field. When given the opportunity to throw the ball downfield, he did so with authority. Palmer is so effective when he throws the ball past the first-down marker.

The scoring drive at the end of the game was magnificent. He ended up with two interceptions, but one was a tipped ball and the other was the Hail Mary at the end of the game.

Many people, including myself, have been talking about a rejuvenated Chad Ochocinco. We saw it yesterday with some nice grabs and yardage after the catch.

 

The Bad

With apologies to Bengals fans who have already heard this broken record, I will say again that offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski is horrible.

Why does he continue to handcuff his quarterback?

Trying to be a running team and having Palmer throw the ball from sideline to sideline is an absolute joke. Chris Henry was thrown to twice.

The Bengals rushed for 86 yards. Palmer was sacked three times. The offensive line must improve. A lot.

Laveranues Coles was brought in to replace the sure-handed T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Coles was the opposite of what fans often got from Houshmandzadeh, dropping two passes and managing just one catch for 11 yards.

 

The Ugly

The Bengals were ready to take the lead, when long snapper Brad St. Louis snapped the ball past the holder and eliminated Shayne Graham’s field goal opportunity.

Brandon Stokley’s touchdown at the end of the game was a fluke, but where was Roy Williams? Why wasn’t he at the Cincinnati 40-yard line making sure nobody got by him?

I am sure there is some explanation to this picture from the Cincinnati Enquirer. Why are the Bengals’ cheerleaders cheering as Stokley runs for a touchdown?

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Josh McDaniels 1 Jay Cutler 0

Yes, it was just one game. And yes, Josh McDaniels’ team played the Cincinnati Bungels while Jay Cutler played the much-improved Green Bay Packers. But, the standings in the newspapers will still have one win next to the Denver Broncos and one loss next to the Chicago Bears.

 

Much hype and publicity went into Jay Cutler’s first game as a Bear (mostly generated by him). The media dubbed him as the greatest quarterback to wear a Bears uniform since Jim McMahon, and already people are bringing up “first time” stats, as in this is the first time a Bears quarterback made the Pro Bowl since (blank) and the first time a Bears quarterback threw for 300 yards since (blank).

 

Instead, Jay Cutler showed not only his ineffectiveness by throwing four interceptions, but also his immaturity whenever a defender would merely touch him he would shove him back.

 

People seem to forget that although Cutler has put up good numbers, he has never led his team to a winning record, let alone a playoff appearance. So when push comes to shove, and it will with him literally, he might put up the points, but won’t be able to lead the final drive.

 

It got to the point where Al Michaels reported that a Bears fan in attendance wearing a Jay Cutler jersey had turned the shirt backwards.

 

Now everybody has a bad game every once in awhile. But some of them have the personality to make you forget about them and wait to see what they can do next week. Cutler definitely does not have one of those.

 

Meanwhile, Kyle Orton, supposedly the Achilles heel to the team, but one who has actually led a team to the playoffs, led his team on a game winning last minute drive.

 

Now maybe Orton will be someone who holds the team back…but not yesterday.

And yes, Cutler would’ve beaten the Bungels had he been in a Denver uniform…but he wasn’t.

 

On the Bears first possession, it seemed Cutler might be colorblind since it seemed he was just throwing the ball right to the Packers defense. The first two were dropped, but not the third pass thrown in a row in the direction of a Green Bay player.

 

The Bears defense kept them in the game and the team found itself up by two points (thanks to a safety on a sack) in the final minutes. But after an Aaron Rodgers touchdown pass to put them ahead, it was down to Jay Cutler to show just how great he was and how wrong Josh McDaniels was…unfortunately the wrong thing about hype is you start mentioning it before the person actually accomplishes it.

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