Dear Santa…College Football Christmas Wishlist for the Denver Broncos

Dear Santa,

This Christmas I want my list to be a little bit different. This year, I want to give all of my presents to the Denver Broncos.

In college football, there are a select group of players that may or may not enter this year’s NFL Draft, and the Broncos could use some of them. Obviously, it would be great if they could have all of them, but I realize you are Santa Claus and not God himself.

The following is a list of the players I feel best define what Josh and Brian are looking for on the Denver Broncos. Players with high character, toughness, and versatility. Players who are willing to be coached, and players who fit our system well.

P.S. Say thanks for me to the Big Man upstairs for Jay Cutler’s karma, for if not for the newest Chicago Bear quarterback’s horrible start, the Broncos would not have a shot at the top ten of the draft and would have only their likely playoff appearance to rub in his face.

Your friend,

Sayre

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Denver Broncos 2010 Mock Draft: Part Three

For my first few mock drafts, I have projected the Broncos to make a trade out of their first round pick which was acquired from the Chicago Bears. This time is no different.
The Broncos would be extremely wise to trade down. This is a deep draft, and they could address multiple areas of need with a bevy of higher picks.

As it stands, the Broncos’ draft would currently look as such:

Round one, pick 9
Round two, pick 25
Round three, pick 24
Round four, pick 23
Round six, pick 27
Round seven, pick 26

Here is my projected trade:

**Broncos trade pick number nine in round one to New England for pick 21 in round one, pick 20 in round two, and the 21st pick in round five**

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Denver Broncos’ Ryan Harris out for Remainder of Season, Herb Taylor Signed

Denver Broncos‘ right tackle Ryan Harris was placed on injured reserve today after aggravating a toe injury suffered earlier this season.

For this to be my first article breaking the horrid news of a player landing on injured reserve is a serious testament to the new regime’s training and conditioning program.

The Broncos did place Nick Griesen and J’Vonne Parker on injured reserve prior to the season, but neither was expected to be a starter or maybe even make the final roster. 

Harris will be replaced by Colorado native Tyler Polumbus, who replaced him when he went down earlier this season as well.  Polumbus is in his second year out of Colorado and was really showing signs of improving when Harris returned to the lineup against the Chiefs.

Unlike the last time Harris went down, Polumbus will now have starting experience and good chemistry with the first unit.  The transition should be a lot more smooth, and Polumbus’ development will be key as the Broncos prepare to attempt an upset of the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday.

Harris’ departure of the active roster to the injured reserve opens a roster spot which was filled by former Kansas City Chiefs tackle Herb Taylor.

Taylor, a sixth round draft pick in 2007 out of TCU signs with the Broncos days after visiting with the Indianapolis Colts.  He was drafted by the Chiefs and let go at the conclusion of training camp this past summer.

He appeared in two games as a rookie and in all 16 games last season.  He was a first team All-WAC performer in his junior and senior seasons at TCU, and according to the Denver Broncos’ official website, he set a team record with 48 consecutive starts. 

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

The Denver Broncos Panicked Attitude Switch Is Paying Off

Two weeks ago, the Denver Broncos had the opportunity to get back on track and take the edge away from the San Diego Chargers.

Somehow the Broncos let the opportunity slip away in a game that put the Chargers at the top of the AFC West.

It also had Denver on a four-game skid with no answers in sight.

On the horizon, a short week with a game on Thanksgiving night against the New York Giants about to hit front and center.

It was at that time the Broncos needed a wake-up call.

It was time to panic, if the 2009 Denver Broncos were going to reach the AFC Playoffs.

It wasn’t that the Broncos lost to the San Diego Chargers in Denver when they could have owned the inside track to the division themselves.

It’s more the way in which they lost to San Diego.

They showed a lack of focus and the lack of a team pulse.

That was when enough became enough.

A players-only meeting was called for by Brian Dawkins.

He is a veteran who has shown that, in him, the Broncos have a gem of a player and a leader they have lacked the last few seasons.

Moreover, it’s helped to change the team’s identity on the defensive side of the ball and fueled a fire not seen there in quite some time.

It’s been debated whether or not player-only meetings are productive or helpful to the future growth of football teams.

The argument against them is they are a waste of time and really are only reserved for teams that are in trouble. 

The argument for having a meeting like that is that it’s an opportunity to air out any differences and make sure the entire team has an elevated sense of what needs to happen for the remainder of the season.

In Denver’s case, both the arguments for and against a players-only meeting probably applied to the state of the team at that point.

There was a need for a meeting, and the team has since proven there is no sense in dwelling on the issues, but certainly a solid response was required.

The Broncos say they weren’t panicking, and you have to believe them, nonetheless the need for urgency was there and the panicked attitude switch absolutely came into play.

What’s encouraging to see—since the Broncos lost to San Diego—are the decisive efforts they have had as a team against the Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Broncos got back to their early season style—finding ways to win.

But more than that, they found ways to dominate. 

Against the New York Giants, the Denver Broncos rushed for 138 yards against one of the best front-sevens in football.

Against Kansas City, the Broncos exploded for 245 yards on the ground.

Defensively, the Broncos yielded only 57 yards on the ground to the Giants and 98 to the Chiefs.

Neither team was able to establish control against the Broncos.

This happened in part due to the offensive output and the mitigating performance by the Broncos defense.

It seems these types of efforts could not have come at a better time for a team that was hot, then got irreversibly cold.

The Denver Broncos have more than just a win against the Giants and a key win in Kansas City over the weekend.

Believe it or not, the Broncos have a two-game edge over two teams that could knock them out of the wild-card playoff slot. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost to the Oakland Raiders at home on Sunday, and the Baltimore Ravens lost at Green Bay on Monday Night Football.

Two weeks ago, the Broncos were on the outside looking in; now they have a two-game edge over the teams that could oust them from a postseason slot with four games remaining in the regular season.

Herein lays the Broncos payoff to their current rally cry.

They chose to hit the panic switch in the nick of time, and it’s paying off huge dividends to put them back into the playoff hunt.

Even more so, should the Broncos beat the Indianapolis Colts on their home field, it will knock the Colts from the ranks of the unbeaten while sending a message.

It will be the Broncos way of essentially serving notice to the rest of the league, that they will be ready for the postseason once it hits. 

A win at Indy could prove that the Broncos are real contenders for the ultimate prize. 

Additionally, and most importantly, it could put pressure on San Diego and give Denver a leg up on the division should the Chargers falter along the way.

Call them streaky.

Call them beatable.

But call them a team that is on the verge of solidifying a playoff berth.

As things currently set, the general thought is 10 wins makes a wild-card team in the AFC this year.

That means Denver needs two wins, Jacksonville three, and Pittsburgh and Baltimore must win out to reach 10 wins. 

Provided the Broncos stay on edge and can win at least two games, they have a solid shot at making the playoffs.

The Ravens and Steelers play each other once more, meaning one of those teams is almost certainly out of contention—we just don’t know which one as of yet.

Jacksonville holds a slim one-game lead over those two teams but has a challenging schedule down the stretch.

 

Key Broncos’ Stats

The Denver Broncos had their challenges over a four-game stretch, but somehow still have the third-best defense overall and the third-best scoring defense behind the Bengals and the Colts.

The Broncos have given up an average of 16.8 points per game.

This just reinforces the idea that the defense is a solid core, despite the four losses by large margins.

The Broncos also boast the ninth-best rushing attack in the NFL.

It might not seem all that amazing until you consider that there are only two teams in the top 10 that are probable playoff teams.

The Broncos could prove to have one of the more potent rushing attacks in the playoffs, should they make it.

Currently, Broncos rookie running back Knowshon Moreno leads all NFL rookies with a 64.5 per game average rushing.

Moreno may reach the 1,000-yard mark by the end of the season, since he currently sits on 774 yards accumulated. 

That is 244 yards better than the next closest rookie running back.

So while Moreno has only been over the century mark once, his contributions to the one-two punch with veteran Correll Buckhalter appear to be a solid change of pace. 

This tandem is keeping the Broncos in games and starting to establish a window of dominance the team can exploit down the stretch and into the playoffs. 

Moreno is currently ranked 15th and Buckhalter 29th among all NFL rushers.

It’s a different NFL nowadays, as well, with only six rushers over the 1,000 yard mark through 12 games. 

The Broncos’ tandem appears to be in good shape with 1,337 total yards, which would rank them second behind Tennessee Titans‘ RB Chris Johnson’s 1,509 yards.

No other tandem is currently in that realm.

Defensively, the Broncos’ D-end Elvis Dumervil leads the NFL in sacks with 15—a full 2.5 sacks ahead of the next closest pass rusher, the Minnesota Vikings‘ Jared Allen. 

Elvis has an outside shot at the all-time NFL record.

He would require two sacks per game for the remaining four games.

Given his speed, leverage, and technique, anything seems possible for a guy who once lead the NCAA in sacks.

Probably the most important stat is the final score.

While the Broncos now seem to be hitting their stride, they have to find more ways to create points. 

Denver is a sub-par 21st in the NFL in average points per game at 20.

Consider the top five scoring teams: undefeated New Orleans (36.7 pts/game); Minnesota (29.9 pts/game); San Diego (28.5 pts/game); Indianapolis (27.6 pts/game); and New England (27.3 pts/game)

 

The Final Note

Who is the 22nd offensive team behind the Denver Broncos, you might ask?

That would be Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears.

That telling stat shows one very clear thing about the Broncos and Jay Cutler: They were both far better together than they have been apart.

It seems that if there is one thing that has plagued the Broncos this season, it’s the lack of a legitimate threat at the quarterback position.

Whether you were a fan of the Cutler trade or not, the Broncos are 21st in scoring, when they underachieved at 16th last season.

In fact, the Broncos’ total output in 2008 finished the season second only to New Orleans in total yards.

In 2009, the team won’t even reach the top 10.

So what does all this really mean?

Well, it’s hard to break down entirely, but the Broncos have not improved on offense under Josh McDaniels.

The Broncos are still showing some deficiencies in the red zone and are not scoring as much as they did a year ago.

The Broncos had issues in the red zone last season and were supposed to correct those this season.

Ironically enough, the team appears to be working on those red zone situations in some regard against the Giants and Chiefs

and it may be possible that the best is yet to come.

 

Contact Chaz at sportsmangement@gmail.com

 

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Why the Broncos Can, and Just Might Upset the 12-0 Colts on Sunday

For years, the bane of the Denver Broncos‘ existence has been Peyton Manning and his Indianapolis Colts. 

Dating back to the early 2000s, one of the most lop-sided matchups in the NFL has been the dominance of the Indianapolis Colts over the Denver Broncos. 

These aren’t the same Denver Broncos.

I realize the Colts are undefeated, and that they are playing this game at home.  I know that a victory for them clinches a first-round bye.  I even understand the magnitude of the potential NFL record 22nd straight regular season victory for the Colts.

But so do they, and that may not be the best thing. 

In the NFL, winning is winning, and you can’t make excuses for it.  The Colts have been up to every task so far, but they are walking on eggshells.

This is a team living on the edge, winning half of their games by four points or less.  They also overcame a 17-point deficit against the Houston Texans two weeks ago.

Again, the only thing that is important is that they are winning, but the living on the edge could stop when Denver visits Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday.

The Colts are a very favorable matchup for the Broncos, provided Denver brings the game it played in the eight games they won rather than the four games they were blown out in.

The Colts’ rushing offense is putrid, ranking 32nd in the NFL with nearly 88 yards per game.  Despite the inept running attack the Colts boast, they still rank fourth in the NFL in total offense and scoring. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Indianapolis ranks a very mediocre 18th against the run, allowing 111.7 yards per contest. 

This is an area the Broncos must take advantage of, and very well should.

Denver’s rushing offense ranks ninth in the NFL at 125.6 yards per contest, and they might be one of the hottest units in the league.

Correll Buckhalter made Kansas City‘s run defense look absolutely silly, averaging over nine yards per carry.  Rookie Knowshon Moreno is in his best stretch as a pro, rushing for 86 yards in each of the last two games and scoring three of his five touchdowns in that timeframe.

Additionally, Denver fans breathed a sigh of relief when Peyton Hillis, the breakout running back from 2008, was spotted on the field against the Chiefs.  He came in on the final drive of the game and ran the ball seven times for 47 yards.

A welcome sight for the Broncos and their fans, to be sure.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Broncos had really been struggling against the run until the last two games.  They rank 16th in this particular category, which is clearly the weakest part of their defensive attack.

The Broncos should be able to limit Joseph Addai and the Colts’ running game while running the ball well themselves.

Another area where the Broncos could excel defensively is in the passing game.  Obviously, the focal point of the Colts’ offense is their elite passing game featuring two of the league’s best in Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne.

Manning and Wayne lead the NFL’s top-ranked passing attack, but they face a very stiff task in Denver who ranks second in the entire league in passing defense.

Denver is led by All-Pros Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins, and veterans Renaldo Hill and André Goodman who lead the team with a combined six interceptions.  The Broncos also added veteran Ty Law and top youngsters Darcel McBath, Alphonso Smith, and David Bruton to the mix in their defensive backfield.

Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of Denver’s defense is their pass rush, which is a big reason for the success of the defensive backfield.

Led by current NFL sack king Elvis Dumervil, the Bronco pass rush has been rejuvenated under Mike Nolan in the 3-4 defensive scheme.  Denver features 10 different players who have recorded a sack in 2009, and it could become 11 if rookie first-round pick Robert Ayers records his first quarterback takedown of the season against Indianapolis.

The Broncos rank fifth in the NFL with 34 sacks, and the Colts lead the NFL with only 10 sacks allowed.  This will be the key matchup in the game, as the Broncos have to apply pressure to Peyton Manning to be able to win.

Another thing the Broncos have on their side is the simple fact that the Colts are undefeated, which may be confusing on the surface.

I know this isn’t baseball, and may not even be applicable, but in baseball when a team is on a hot streak, it is not the worst thing to have to play them.  Winning streaks are bound to end, and the Colts’ win streak isn’t exactly picking up steam.

The Broncos could catch them at their highest point, and bring them back down to earth.  The Colts are not likely going to go 16-0, and with their defense ailing worse than it has in years, this could be the week for them to slip up.

I am not going to be so bold as to say the Broncos will go into Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday and beat the undefeated Colts, but I would say it is a definite possibility.

I think this is a very favorable matchup for the Broncos, who are in desperate need for a win this weekend to potentially gain ground on the San Diego Chargers who also have a tough road game in the works.

Maybe the Broncos will finally get the best of Peyton Manning and the Colts.  Maybe the stars will align just right, and Denver will even stick it to Indy on their home turf.

Maybe all those years of blowout playoff and regular season losses were all just setting up this contest, where neither team’s sideline will feature the likes of Mike Shanahan or Tony Dungy.

Maybe, just maybe.

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Swagger Regained, the Denver Broncos Must Step Up Once Again

44-13 over the Kansas City Chiefs. The way it should be.

With their four-game freefall and the depths of depression feeling far off, the Denver Broncos have now won two games in a row to move their record to 8-4.

They currently sit at the fifth seed in the AFC, occupying the first of two wild-card openings. They are second in the AFC West, behind the red-hot San Diego Chargers, winners of seven straight.

The final four weeks of the season will prove challenging for the Broncos, and they will need to continue playing at the level exhibited on Sunday in Kansas City.

First on the schedule is a trip to “the Oil Can” or Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the undefeated Indianapolis Colts.

The Denver pass defense will be put to the test by Peyton Manning and the extremely high-powered Colts offense. It will be imperative for the Broncos to keep pressure on Manning, and the defensive backs must continue the exceptional play they have shown over the past two games.

As the New England Patriots and Houston Texans have both demonstrated, no lead is safe when Manning and the Colts’ offense is on the opposite sideline, and the Broncos will have to score early and often to keep the pressure on for all 60 minutes.

If the Broncos end up on the short side of a relatively close game, it would be a respectable showing.

The following week, they must play the suddenly-upstart Oakland Raiders. With shocking last-second wins against the Bengals and Steelers, the Raiders have become a semi-legitimate opponent.

This will be a critical game for the Broncos, especially if they fall in Indy. A win at home against the Raiders would put the hypothetical record at 9-5, likely retaining the fifth seed.

Two days after Christmas, the Broncos will visit Philadelphia in Brian Dawkins’ much-anticipated homecoming. In a game that could go either way, the Broncos will need to play physical football and put pressure on Donovan McNabb.

If the Broncos are able to leave Philadelphia with a 10-5 record, both players and fans should be very proud of their team.

More importantly, the team would then have the opportunity to give some starters a much-needed rest during the regular season finale against the Chiefs.

The Denver Broncos have re-focused themselves, worked hard, and righted the ship. As bad as the four game losing streak felt, in hindsight it may have happened at exactly the right time.

Losing streaks that begin a season can be detrimental to team and fanbase morale, and losing streaks to finish the season can knock a competitive team out of the play-offs, a situation that is all too familiar in Denver.

Losing streaks that fall smack in the middle of the season, however, can be enough to force the players to “wake up” and refocus without damaging either morale or even play-off hopes.

The Denver Broncos have a very real shot at finishing the 2009 season with an 11-5 record, far better than anyone would give them credit for in the preseason.

With this in mind, it is time to once again step things up. Step up practicing, step up effort, step up with the leadership.

The time is now for this team to drive away the demons of last year and regain their status as one of the AFC’s strongest contenders, maybe even venturing to say “AFC’s elite.”

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Broncos Success Hinges On The Two Ryan’s

Ryan Harris and Ryan Clady both began starting for the Denver Broncos under Mike Shanahan last season.  Without much national attention, the duo was the best in the NFL when it comes to allowing the least amount of sacks. The combo gave up a combined three sacks during the entire 16 game regular season (0.5 Clady, 2.5 Harris).

With new head coach Josh McDaniels taking over in the tumultuous offseason, their previous success was far overlooked coming into this season. After a 6-0 start, Ryan Harris was injured in the Broncos loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He dislocated two toes in his right foot and has been sidelined ever since. He will return this week when the Broncos travel to Kansas City for an important divisional battle.

2009 has been a confirmation of success for the highly sought after offensive tackle from Boise State, Ryan Clady. The 12th draft pick for the Broncos in 2008, Clady has lived up to all the expectations. He has allowed only 2.5 sacks through 11 complete games this season. He has a much less mobile quarterback in Kyle Orton under center this season, and has continued to dominate Orton’s blindside.

Ryan Harris, a much less known commodity from Notre Dame was drafted as the sixth pick in the third round in the 2007 NFL Draft. He did not start a game in his rookie season, but the word was out that he was thought of highly within the Broncos organization and he is proving it in year three.

In seven starts this season, Harris has allowed only one sack. A top recruit out of Cretin-Derham Hall High School in Saint Paul, Minnesota, he could have been a much higher selection in the NFL Draft had the Fighting Irish had more success in his four years there.

Now proven commodities in the NFL, the Denver Broncos have solidified the bookends on the very important offensive line of McDaniels’ offense. The value of two great tackles is one of the most overlooked aspects in offensive passing games. It is going to a crucial part of the the Broncos long term success and for their aspirations to play in the Super Bowl this season. 

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Spread ‘Em: Week 13 NFL Picks

The NFL is in its home stretch. It’s the final five weeks of the season and teams still alive for a playoff spot will see their season change for better or worse.

Following my worst week of the season (6-10) last week, hopefully Thursday’s win will serve as a springboard.

Remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only. Here’s the rest of week 13:

 

Denver (-4.5) over Kansas City

At this time of year, with bye weeks now in everyone’s rear-view mirrors, playing on Sunday following a Thursday night game is the closest thing a team will get to having an extra week off.

Traditionally, Denver is brutal at Kansas City in the month of December, and the Chiefs have played better recently—with the exception of their game against the Chargers last week. This could be a prime example of a “trap game.”

However, take the bait and the Broncos. They have playoffs on their minds, they’re rested, they’re running the football with renewed vigor, and they’re simply the better football team.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 13

 

New England (-5) over Miami

Given their road woes this season, it was surprising to see the Patriots favored by five points. All four losses this season have come away from Gillette Stadium.

Following the rout in New Orleans in Week 12, a loss that pushed their road record to 0-4 in the continental U.S., the Patriots recognize they need a win—and a convincing one—in Miami, for two reasons.

First and foremost, a loss to the Dolphins puts the Pats at 7-5, giving the Dolphins and Jets belief that they have a shot at the AFC East.

Secondly, a big road win against a division rival restores confidence and gives New England good reason to believe they can win the rest of their games—a run which would give them an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 2 seed.

The Patriots are due. They’re better than they’ve shown in road games, and at this time of year in season’s past, they’ve played their best football. It won’t be different in 2009.

Patriots 31, Dolphins 17

 

Pittsburgh (-13) over Oakland

Like the Broncos, the Raiders have had a little extra time off, thanks to their Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas. Initially, the thinking was that the Raiders would be competitive due to the rest and the uncertainty regarding Ben Roethlisberger.

However, after some thought, the Steelers can win this game by two touchdowns with Dennis Dixon under center—that is, if Mike Tomlin and the Steelers decided to rest Roethlisberger another week.

With Oakland allowing something in the neighborhood of 160 yards per game on the ground, the Steelers should be able to run the ball capably and dominate the Raiders.

Plus, if motivation means anything, the Steelers have lost three games in a row—the last two in overtime—and they need a win to improve their playoff hopes.

Steelers 28, Raiders 10

 

Jacksonville (pick ‘em) over Houston

Last week’s deflating loss to the Colts effectively ended any chance the Texans had of making the playoffs. According to most “in the know,” it also marked the beginning of the end of the Gary Kubiak Era in Houston as well.

The Texans struggle to defend the run, and the Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars don’t defend the pass well, while Houston thrives on using the air attack to moving the ball offensively.

So long as Jaguars’ QB David Garrard can complete a few passes to keep Houston’s defense honest, the Jags should be able to control the ball and keep the Houston offense off the field, giving them the edge in this one.

Jaguars 24, Texans 21

 

Tennessee (+7) over Indianapolis

Peyton Manning should feast on the Titans’ pass defense, as he did earlier this season (309 yards and 3 touchdowns). The Colts are capable of striking early, and the Titans would probably have a tough time playing catch-up.

However, these Titans are different from the ones that were blown out by the Colts earlier this season. The main differences are at quarterback and running back.

Vince Young has taken over under center and completed nearly 63 per cent of his passes, well above his career average (58 per cent). He seems poised and offers more versatility at the QB position than Kerry Collins.

At running back, Chris Johnson is no longer splitting carries with LenDale White. During Tennessee’s five-game winning streak, the 18 carries he had last week against Arizona was his lowest total. He had averaged 26 carries per game in the previous four victories.

This is a winnable game for the Titans. More importantly, they need to win in order to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. For the Colts, reaching 12-0 and 21 straight wins in the regular season—tying an NFL record—would be important milestones.

It would be nice to see the Titans win. More likely, though, Manning has a huge game, and the Colts survive a 130-yard effort from Johnson to win a close one at home.

Colts 27, Titans 24

 

Philadelphia (-5.5) over Atlanta

With Matt Ryan and Michael Turner dinged up, the Falcons turn to their understudies—QB Chris Redman and RBs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling) to salvage their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, the home crowd will be riled up for an appearance from former franchise quarterback Michael Vick.

Those storylines aside, the Eagles are better defensively and have highly-skilled, big-play receivers on offense that should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points against an Atlanta defense that isn’t good.

Eagles 31, Falcons 17

 

Cincinnati (-13) over Detroit

Cincinnati’s pass defense is very good, led by the under-publicized Leon Hall at corner back.

Should Calvin Johnson play for the Lions, Hall will get the nod to start opposite him. He should quietly limit Johnson to one of his worst games of the season.

Cincinnati’s run-based offense should thrive against the Lions, who can’t seem to stop anyone on the ground or in the passing game. Expect big days for all of the Bengals’ skill players as they attempt to cement their status as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

It sounds preposterous with the Bengals as a potential No. 2 seed, but it’s the reality of the NFL in 2009.

Bengals 31, Lions 10

 

Washington (+9.5) over New Orleans

First, let’s get the obvious out the way: the Saints are clearly the better team in this matchup.

However, the Redskins’ defense is very good against the pass, and it could potentially negate the Saints’ strength on offense.

Up front, the Redskins are not as strong defensively against the run, and the Saints’ group of running backs should be able to pound the ball and control the time of possession—if it gets done to it.

The matchups seem to lead to a closer game than many would expect. Factor in the point that the Saints are coming off an emotional home win, they have a slightly shorter week to prepare, and they travel to Washington. This could be a trap game for the Saints.

Take the Redskins outright. At the very least, they should cover.

Redskins 24, Saints 21

 

Tampa Bay (+6) over Carolina

Believe it or not, the Buccaneers enter this game with the more stable quarterback situation. Nobody has faith in Jake Delhomme, besides his receiver Steve Smith, and neither should Carolina at this point.

Still, the Panthers’ offense is based in large part on their strong running game, and the Buccaneers struggle to defend the run.

Whether Delhomme starts or the Panthers turn to backup Matt Moore, Carolina’s running backs will have to do much of the work, and the Buccaneers should be able to load up the line of scrimmage to stop the run.

The Panthers’ passing game can’t make enough plays to prevent the Bucs from keying in on the run. The Panthers’ defense isn’t what it used to be either.

Buccaneers 20, Panthers 13

 

St. Louis (+9) over Chicago

The Rams could be just what the doctor ordered for the struggling Bears. However, with the Bears struggling both offensively and defensively, they’ll be locked in a tight game with the Rams.

The bottom line is that the Bears have to play mistake-free football to cover this spread—something they are capable of right now. Talent-wise, they should win. If the Rams are forced into a few turnovers, the Bears will win easily.

The Rams’ Stephen Jackson will be heavily utilized against the Bears, and rightfully so. If he has a big game, the Rams have a chance to win this game outright.

Bears 24, Rams 20

 

San Diego (-13) over Cleveland

Does this one even need explaining? It was a surprise to see this spread under two touchdowns.

Chargers 37, Browns 13

San Francisco (pick ’em) over Seattle

The 49ers still have a shot at a playoff berth, and their offense has some emerging talent. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have struggled lately on both sides of the ball.

One thing working in the Seahawks’ favor is that they haven’t played a home game in nearly a month; their last three games have come away from Qwest Field. They tend to play significantly better at home.

Still, the 49ers’ desperation to win and stay in the NFC West and wildcard races will be the deciding factor in what should be a close game.

49ers 20, Seahawks 17

 

NY Giants (+2) over Dallas

Both teams enter this game having last played on Thanksgiving, so they’ve both enjoyed a longer break between games.

The Giants have seemingly lost the ability to run the ball. Their quarterback is playing through the effects of plantar fascilitis. Their defense is struggling. It’s no wonder the Giants have lost five of their last six.

Yet, despite these issues, they are desperate and will be playing at home, which might help them rediscover some of what made them successful in the last couple seasons rushing the passer and pounding the football on the ground.

Simultaneously, a Giants win will cast doubt on whether or not the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Dallas’ struggles in the month of December with Tony Romo as quarterback are well-known, and a loss in this game will only reignite that doubt.

Giants 24, Cowboys 21

 

Minnesota (-3) over Arizona

Many believe the Vikings are the best team in football—certainly among the best. If the Cardinals were to beat Minnesota, they’d need to be at full strength, meaning that Kurt Warner would play and play well.

Given that Warner sat out last week and is a game-time decision this week, you have to question his ability to have the kind of game necessary to keep the Cardinals competitive against Brett Favre and the Vikings’ explosive offense.

Regardless of whether Warner plays, or how effective he might be if plays, the key matchup will be Arizona’s run defense against Adrian Peterson. Arizona’s run defense had a great start to the season, but has struggled in recent games.

If the Cardinals can limit Peterson, their chances or covering the spread or winning improves significantly. If they can’t slow Peterson down, the Vikings will win easily, no matter who is under center for Arizona.

Vikings 27, Cardinals 17

 

Monday Night

Baltimore (+3) over Green Bay

Oh sure, the Ravens’ defense isn’t what it once was. In fact, statistically speaking, the Packers are better than the Ravens defensively.

However, Baltimore’s five losses this season have all come against teams in the playoff picture in their respective conferences (New England, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati twice). Is it possible the Ravens are underrated?

That isn’t to say the Packers are overrated. Three of their four losses have also come to playoff-type teams (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati). But Aaron Rodgers is playing Pro Bowl-caliber football.

The Ravens should be favored in this one. They still have some big performers on defense, even if the unit as a whole seems to be in decline. A big game on a big stage is where Ray Lewis shines, and it’s likely he’ll make a few big plays to turn the tide in a close Baltimore win.

Ravens 17, Packers 13

 

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Back to the Xs and Os: How the Denver Broncos Can Win at Arrowhead

A week after taking a 43-13 pounding from the San Diego Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs will once again try to dethrone an AFC playoff contender when the Denver Broncos visit Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

The Broncos ended a four-game slide when they beat the New York Giants 26-6 on primetime television Thanksgiving night.  It seems if the Broncos lost that game, they would undoubtedly be on the outside looking in on the playoff picture, possibly for good.

Now they are set to make what has turned out to be one of the most difficult December road trips any team can face with a visit to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs.

The last time the Broncos made their way to Arrowhead, Jay Cutler almost single-handedly gave the game to the Chiefs, ending the Broncos’ 3-0 start in 2008 with a 33-19 reality check.

This time, the circumstances are quite different. 

Again, the Chiefs are looking to play the role of spoiler. But for the Broncos the stakes are higher.  The playoffs are potentially on the line.

This is the quintessential trap game, one which the Broncos will most certainly be ready for.

Denver is better in every major statistical category.  On paper, they should dominate this game.

But games are not won on paper. 

Here is how the Broncos can win on Sunday.

 

1.  Get Knowshon Moreno his First 100-Yard Game

The Chiefs are allowing nearly 135 rushing yards per contest and the Broncos’ running game is clearly on the rise, thanks to rookie tailback Knowshon Moreno.

Moreno has nearly broken 100 yards multiple times this season, but for some reason he always seems to hit a bit of a wall.  If the Broncos are going to win this game, they need to ensure that Moreno and the rejuvenated running game control the line of scrimmage and the game clock.

A huge key for the game on Sunday for the Broncos is the return of right tackle Ryan Harris, who went down with a toe injury earlier this season.  Harris was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his injury and the Broncos have lost four of the five games he has missed.

Harris’ athleticism and mere presence will help the Broncos in the running game.  He really does add another dimension to the Denver offense. 

Expect the Broncos to show a heavy dose of the running game on Sunday. If they do it effectively, expect it to lead them to the winner’s circle.

 

2.  Force Early Turnovers

The Chiefs’ offensive line is among the worst in the NFL and the Broncos need to exploit it.  Sack-master Elvis Dumervil, who leads the league with 14 quarterback takedowns, needs to cause havoc for Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel. 

It is almost certain the Broncos will force turnovers, but they can put this game away by forcing Cassel into poor throws early on or causing fumbles via sacks.

It’s clear that the Broncos’ offense thrives with a short field and the defense needs to make that scenario possible as often as they can. 

Kansas City has gotten a jump in the passing game from waiver-wire acquisition Chris Chambers, a player the Broncos are familiar with from his days in San Diego.

Another area the Broncos can exploit is the Chiefs’ quarterback position, where Josh McDaniels essentially has the task of taking down his own project in Cassel.

McDaniels groomed Cassel in New England and he knows every strength and weakness the kid possesses.  The Broncos should be able to exploit Cassel and the weak passing offense of the Chiefs.

 

3.  Oh Kyle Orton, Where Art Thou?

Okay, so the heading is lame, but here it goes.

The Broncos are facing one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses this week and quarterback Kyle Orton needs to have a big game.  With a fully healthy offensive line and receiving core, he has no more excuses to be anything but the Orton we all saw in the first six weeks.

The Chiefs have good cornerbacks, but the Broncos have better wide receivers and tight ends.  Brandon Marshall will be a strong focus of attention by the Chiefs and the Broncos should look to intermediate routes over the middle of the field to exploit Kansas City.

Orton should have a big game against the Chiefs, provided he is smart with his passes, as usual.

 

This is a game the Broncos cannot overlook. And as disciplined as this team has proven to be this season, it does not seem like an option.

The Broncos need to improve to 8-4 in the heated AFC playoff race, with the potential to catch the San Diego Chargers for the AFC West title as the season progresses.

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football Week 13 Sleeper: Knowshon Moreno

Since draft day, everyone has been waiting for Knowshon Moreno to emerge as a go-to fantasy option. Over the season’s first nine weeks, that type of optimism appeared like it was going to be a complete bust.

He had just one rushing touchdown. He had rushed for 75 yards or more just three times. His best game saw him overage 4.6 yards per carry (and he had four games averaging less than four yards per carry, including one where he was at 0.6).

Over the past three weeks he suddenly has put things together. He’s rushed for 265 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He’s also found the end zone once and is getting the ball regularly.

That’s not to mention, he’s also done it against some pretty good defenses:

• Washington—currently allowing 127.9 yards per game, best in the league
• San Diego—currently allowing 118.1 yards per game
• New York Giants—currently allowing 107.8 yards per game

I know the Giants defense is not playing as good as their ranking. I know you can probably point to things (like injuries) regarding both the Redskins and Chargers defenses as well. I know that these are not the best defenses; in fact, only the Giants are in the top half in the league. Still, when someone starts to perform you have to take notice.

This week he gets an even better matchup, taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, currently allowing the sixth most yards per game (134.5). They are also 11th in the number of rushing touchdowns at 11 (the league leader is at 17). While they did manage to contain LaDainian Tomlinson this past week, the three prior to that saw big performances:

• Week Nine: Maurice Jones-Drew—97 yards
• Week 10: Michael Bush—119 yards
• Week 11: Rashard Mendenhall—80 yards

Considering what he’s done in recent weeks, the positive matchup certainly has to excite fantasy owners, even though he is likely to continue sharing carries with Correll Buckhalter. He is on a roll these days and he’s worth considering in all formats.

What do you think? Is Moreno a player you would use? How good do you think he may be in Week 13?

Make sure to check out our Week 13 Rankings:

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Kickers
• Defenses

 

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

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