2009 NFL Surprise Teams: Broncos and Bengals

When that crazy tipped pass ending gave the Broncos their first win, many of you probably thought, like most of the humans around the office here, “Well, somebody had to win.”

We have to admit that we never thought that we would be heading into week six and that game would have provided the only loss by either team.

Although PossessionPoints.com is based on the East Coast, we do what we can to follow teams nationwide. We are avid listeners to Sirius NFL radio so we hear fans from all over the country voice their biased opinions about their teams.

As early as August, even the most optimistic Broncos fan was only expecting maybe an 8-8 season. The team had dealt away their young “franchise” QB and seemed to have gotten the short end of the deal. They were feuding with their top wide receiver, and it appeared to many that their rookie head coach may be in over his head.

The Broncos went 1-3 in the preseason, and they failed to score over 20 points in any of the four games. So, we were not expecting much out of the Broncos this season. We will admit that we said that “the AFC West was the Chargers‘ division to lose.” We expected the Broncos to win their first game against the Bengals because our expectations for the Bengals were a bit lower than our expectations for the Broncos.

In the Bengals’ case, we thought that they would have a tough time competing in their division with the two teams (the Steelers and the Ravens) that we expected to be quite strong, like they were in 2008.

So, here we are and five weeks are gone, and the Bengals are 4-1 with wins over both the Steelers and Ravens to their credit. The win over the Ravens was in Baltimore too.

The Broncos and Bengals sit at No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, on our Performance Ranking Chart, and now we have to say we would not be surprised to see both of these teams in the playoffs.

Looking ahead at the Bengals’ schedule, you cannot count them out of any game based on the way they have been playing. And you would have to count them as the clear favorite in the games against the Raiders, Browns, Lions, and Chiefs. That would give them eight wins.

The other teams left on the Bengals’ schedule are the Texans, Bears, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Chargers, and Jets. No pushovers there, but if they can win just three of those seven games, it would be an astounding feat and an 11-win season. Don’t tell the Patriots, but 11 wins usually makes the playoffs.

The road ahead for the Broncos is equally promising. They have five wins in the bank and still have two games with the Chiefs, one with the Redskins, and one with the Raiders ahead of them. With these opportunities in mind, let us say that the low expectation for the Broncos is nine wins.

They just beat the Patriots, so you have to count that game as well as the games against the Cowboys and Bengals as quality wins. Their immediate future is the toughest as they face the Chargers, Ravens, and Steelers in the next three games.

The Broncos get a break in that their bye falls right after the Chargers’ game, and that will give them a rest to prepare for the Ravens. The game with the Redskins follows the Steelers’ game and then the Broncos once again face the Chargers. However, this time the contest is in Denver. Denver still has the Giants, Eagles, and Colts on their schedule, so they do not have a “soft” schedule.

If they win the games we now expect them to win to get to nine wins, they only need to win two of the games against the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers (twice), Giants, Colts, and Eagles.

Hey, the Bengals beat both the Steelers and Ravens, and they have about the same “Relative Performance Number” (RPM) as the Broncos. (For more information on our RPM see our article on Week Two Performance Rankings, where we explain them in more detail.)

We actually enjoy “surprises” in the NFL. We find it interesting as our stat-based projections put out predictions that the humans in the office sometimes do not believe.

We shook our heads each week that our Matchup Chart picked the Bengals and Broncos, but so far they have lived up to their stats and won. The Matchup Chart did pick the Patriots to win last week, but the computer thought the game would be close enough that it had the Broncos with the points. That served us well anyway.

We can’t wait to see what surprises the remainder of the season brings.

The full Week Six RPM chart is below:

Read more Denver Broncos news on BleacherReport.com

The Battle at Midway: The Denver Broncos As Seen on The History Channel

In World War II the Battle of Midway marked the point where the US began to assume control of the South Pacific. During the season of ritualized war that is professional football the Broncos may have fought their Battle of Midway and like that more famous battle this one may be the turning point of the war that is a football season.

This Broncos off-season will probably never be matched for sheer drama. Bronco fans were witness to the end of an era.

The Shanahan legacy was more than just two Super Bowls. Shanahan, along with Elway, were the validation of faith of those fans who stuck with the Broncos through all the years under Reeves when the Broncos got close to glory but never quite achieved it. 

More important than anything else Shanahan did was that he brought the Broncos respect. The Broncos could no longer be thought of as the team of also-rans.

World War I was the point at which the United States emerged as a world power. In the football world the beginning of the Shanahan era was the Broncos World War I, the point where the Broncos became serious Super Bowl contenders.

The sad truth is that every era must end but not always quietly. The Shanahan era ended spasming and kicking as two budding stars, absent their mentor, could not accept the inevitable.

Pundits, profits and predictors of all stripe played on every fear that a fan could have. Somehow the new Bronco team would have every flaw that the team had under Shanahan plus whatever new flaws they might ascribe.

The respect the Broncos had earned was gone, an old empire had re awakened to challenge the Broncos now that Shanahan had faded. If Mike Shanahan was a football version of General Pershing the new Bronco head coach, Josh McDaniels, is a brash General Patton out to win this new battle.

Under this new lens of national coverage everything the Broncos organization did was painted as a poor choice or worse yet some evil machination by the young whelp of a coach. Just as General Patton scandalized the army by slapping a soldier he considered a malingerer in the face, McDaniels slapped coddled players Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall in their figurative faces.

The press reviled Patton, he was briefly relieved of command. In much the same way the vast majority of projections were that the new coach must fail well before a preseason game was played.

The lingering drama from the Shanahan legacy reared its ugly head in the form of Brandon Marshall’s petulant attitude.  Soon writers who had never paid attention to the Denver Broncos were experts at predicting gloom for the new Bronco coach.

The first preseason game seemed to fill some of those expectations, with a turnover filled debut by the new quarterback. Contrary to the focus of the press on Kyle Orton’s turnovers there were several glimmers of hope for Bronco fans.

Early on in World War II the Germans were considered to have the best tanks and air force, the Japanese were unbeatable at sea.  The US had to build and improve its military hardware fast.

For the first time in years the Broncos had a defensive line with the size to match up against some of the larger offensive lines in the league. Ronnie Fields, an under the radar free agent acquisition emerged as a solid anchor on the defensive line.

While the fanfare went on about offensive blunders the Bronco defense had accumulated four sacks and established a solid style of play. That four sack effort was followed by a three sack effort in game two of the preseason, a string unheard of by the Bronco defense over the last three years.

The other side of the ball showed Bronco fans some surprises as well. 

While Orton’s interceptions were fodder for the press the fact that Orton’s first drive featured a brilliant passing display went un-noticed. Only on the second game, when Orton managed to sustain his fine display of short passing did the press and fans take notice.

Pundits who had written off the Bronco receiving corps as weak because of the Brandon Marshall debacle were suddenly aware of Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, Jabar Gaffney et al. 

The most under reported aspect of the Bronco offensive performances was the complete dominance in the passing game of the Bronco’s offensive line. Through just over two halves of football Orton had not seen any significant pressure.

Steadily over the first two preseason games the Broncos are showing strong improvements on both sides of the ball. The truly remarkable aspect of these improvements are that they have come in only two games from a team who starting lineup features a majority of players who weren’t with the team last year.

Finally there is one last trope that exists. Much like the squabble over control between General Montgomery and General Eisenhower, overarching the entire off-season is the oft-referred to turmoil under which the team supposedly toils. 

Some pundits have gone as far as to claim that all of the off-season drama has produced a sort of team paralysis through which players suffering from the post traumatic stress of the various scandals stumble zombie-like through practices.

People have been led to believe that there is some division between the new coaching staff and his players. This divide is allegedly caused by the player’s concern for the fate of the gravely wounded Brandon Marshall.

In a very recent article by the Denver Post Broncos defensive tackle Kenny Peterson said:

“People might say it’s the kind of thing that has an impact, but when we’re together as players, it’s us, just us, we don’t feel that kind of drama, really, I know people may think that’s crap, but we don’t. That stuff that goes on upstairs, that’s upstairs, and when (Marshall’s) upstairs he deals with that and when he’s down here with us, he’s in there and everybody hopes it all works out. And really, guys have bigger things to worry about in training camp, in the preseason, than somebody else’s situation. It’s none of our concern. As long as he does what he does on the field, the rest of it is none of our concern.”

In the same article running back Correll Buckhalter phrased it this way:

“Here’s the thing. When I was in Philadelphia, there was always talk about the drama with the team and (Terrell Owens) but T.O. was never a problem, day to day, in the locker room. I don’t think people on the outside understand that a lot of the time. The guy didn’t have a problem with anybody on the team inside the locker room when we were inside that locker room. Outside the locker room, I can’t speak to that, but inside the locker room, I don’t think he had a problem with anybody.”

If there is one great thing Bronco fans learned from this off-season it should be that a lot of the hand-wringing and reported turmoil is purely a perception the national press has sold as real. In the locker room and on the field the Broncos are quietly going about building a solid team that will compete this year.

Midway was not the end of WWII but it was the beginning of the end.  Midway through the preseason the Broncos have not won anything yet but they are beginning to win back some respect.

 

Can Brandon Marshall Produce without Jay Cutler?

Despite being less than four months away from opening night in the NFL it’s never to early to start your preparation for the upcoming fantasy football season.

With the NFL Draft in the books and the majority of the free-agent’s having signed contracts it’s safe to start taking a deeper look into teams depth charts and projecting just how valuable specific players will be.

In fact, our staff has already started our 2009 positional rankings and stat projections for our yearly Online Magazine that will release towards the end of June.

Since we started doing the Bruno Boys Mailbag three weeks ago we have seen a huge increase in fantasy football owners sending in legitimate questions pertaining to the 2009 season.

If we have failed to feature your question in the weekly mailbag, our apologies but remember to check your email as we still address every questions. With that being said. lets get started on the May 21st, 2009 edition of Bruno Boys Mailbag: Fantasy Football Q & A. 

As always, if you have a question about a player or draft strategy send an email to contact@brunoboys.net and we will give you all the advice needed to make you successful.

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QUESTION: What is Brandon Marshall’s current ranking now that the draft and most of FA is over?  At the end of last season, he was seemingly top 5 WR and a definite keeper.  Now I’m not so sure.  We can keep three and I’ve got two good ones: Aaron Rogers (for 9th round draft choice this year) and Chris Johnson (14th).  For the third, would you rather keep Pierre Thomas (16th round pick this year) or Brandon Marshall (4th)?  I pick 9 of 10 and a lot of WR’s are being kept (however you can’t keep a round 1-2 pick, so all of last year’s top choices will be available).  I’m leaning toward keeping Thomas and going WR-RB-WR.  Thanks. – Eric (Bluffton, Ohio)

ANSWER: Eric…  Thanks for the question and before I even get into detail I would like to tell you that this is a good problem to have. Regardless of the route you go, the caliber of players you are going to keep heading into 2009 is a great core to build off of.

When looking at Brandon Marshall for this season you have to automatically downgrade his value due to the fact that Jay Cutler is no longer in Denver, but this shouldn’t scare you off of him. However, what should scare you off is the way he finished down the stretch in 2008.

After scoring 54 fantasy football points over his first three games, Marshall could manage just 98 fantasy points in the final 12 contests and the third year wide receiver scored only three touchdowns during that span.

A large part of this had to do with the Broncos inconsistency at the running back position and defenders focusing on the passing game, but this is still a cause for concern in my opinion. 

It might be a bit early to forecast Marshall’s overall value, since we don’t know who will be the top RB option in Denver, but you can peg him as a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 heading into 2009. Currently, I have him as my 14th best wide receiver nestled in between Terrell Owens and Wes Welker.

As for who to keep, Chris Johnson is a no-brainer. He is a top 10 running back and a 1st round fantasy option that you have to forfeit a 14th rounder for. Great work! Also, I would keep Aaron Rodgers, without even knowing your scoring format. The fact that it’s a ninth rounder that you lose is enough to sell me.

Rodgers finished as the No. 2 overall quarterback in standard leagues last year and I rank him as my fourth QB heading into 2009, just a shade behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

The choice behind Pierre Thomas and Marshall is a tough one, as they both have plenty of upside and you can make a case for either, but I am a firm believer of building off running back depth and Thomas will give you just that.

Plus the last that you lose a 16th round pick by keeping him heavily outweighs the fact that you probably would lose one of your top picks by keeping Marshall. In my opinion Thomas will pick up where he left off in 2009 and put together a solid campaign that makes him a RB2 in all scoring formats.

Plus, the odds of Marshall falling to you with the 9th pick are better than Thomas getting to your draft spot. From there, you can target snagging Marshall or a comparable wide receiver with the ninth overall pick in the first round of the non-keeper draft. All the Best this year and keep the questions coming!

CHECK OUT THE FULL ARTICLE AT WWW.BRUNOBOYS.NET

Mock Interview, Real Draftee: Robert Ayers

Josh McDaniels is a controversial guy.  Sure, he got some early offseason help in that category from Jay Cutler, but the “experts” set his inaugural draft solely on his shoulders.  So when he chose a guy that seemingly had no business playing in the new 3-4 defensive scheme, it was almost easier for Broncos fans to shrug their shoulders than to shake their fists.

McDaniels hasn’t offered any excuses for his selection process, and Robert Ayers won’t be offering any for his suspect fit.  That’s because underneath all of the scrutiny, and all of the nay-saying, the Broncos followed a time-tested philosophy:  Draft your guys, screw the rest. 

So why take a prospect whose value projections ran the gamut from early first round to late second?  Because he’s a team-first guy playing a team-first sport.

 

1. Hunter Ansley:  First things first.  Did you have a feeling you’d go in the top 20 of the Draft?
2. HA:  Now that you’re in Denver, where do you fit into the Broncos scheme?
3. HA:  Are you comfortable standing up as an outside linebacker?
4. HA:  Why were you unable to put up great stats at Tennessee?
5. HA:  Everybody asks about the best player a guy faced in college, but I want to know if there was one particular offensive player that really got under your skin?  Any big-time college grudges?
6. HA:  What was the best game you played that no one noticed?
7. HA:  How important is it to have two other rookies (WR Lucas Taylor and P Britton Colquitt) from Tennessee in Denver with you?
8. HA:  When Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams were drafted, they had a wager going on who would be drafted higher.  Any draft bets with any of your friends?
9. HA:  What makes you a good fit for Josh McDaniels’ overall team philosophy?
10. HA:  What’s more important— a great individual statistical performance that leads to a win, or doing the unheralded tasks that make it easier for teammates to have a great game that leads to a win?
11. HA:  How long before the Broncos are back in the playoffs?
12. HA:  What kind of lessons can you learn from veteran players who play a different position than you?
13. HA:  Who’s going to be the toughest guy to outwork on your new team?
14. HA:  So far what’s the biggest difference between John Chavis and Mike Nolan? Do you like either style better?
15. HA:  All right, you just had three sacks in a Broncos’ Super Bowl Victory.  What are you doing that night?
16. HA:  Thanks for your time, Robert.  Have a great season and a great career. 

RA:  Thank you, Hunter.  You were by far the best interviewer I’ve ever talked to.  It was an absolute privilege answering your questions.  Plus, you’re pretty cool.

 

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