The Denver Broncos (1-0), coming off of their craziest victory in a long time, head home for Week Two to face off against the Cleveland Browns (0-1), who last weekend were crushed by Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings.

Many say the Broncos are “lucky” to be undefeated right now because of what is being referred to as the “Immaculate Deflection.” But if that catch happened in the first or second quarter, people would be talking about how the Broncos had a dominant defensive performance against the Cincinnati Bengals.

This week at Invesco Field at Mile High, the Broncos will play host to a Browns team characterized by the phrase, “The future is now.”

Cleveland has a bevy of young players, a new head coach, and a fanbase desperate for a return to the postseason. 

The Browns boast one of the NFL’s best left tackles, kick returners, and wide receivers, along with one of the more athletic defensive linemen I have ever seen. I am, of course, talking about Joe Thomas, Joshua Cribbs, Braylon Edwards, and Shaun Rogers.

But despite the talent that the Browns possess, they have been vast underachievers over the last decade. The 2009 season appears to be no different, especially as they try to get Brady Quinn acclimated to his first full season as a starting quarterback.

All of this being said, the Broncos hold the clear statistical advantage over the Browns. 

Offensively, the Broncos hold the edge in total yards and passing yards.

Defensively, Denver bests Cleveland in total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, points allowed, third down conversions allowed, and turnovers.

The most interesting statistic I came across was that the Broncos and Browns are tied in terms of third-down conversions on offense.  As Bronco fans well know, Kyle Orton and company were only able to convert on three third downs. The Browns similarly struggled to move the ball on offense.

All of this being said, let’s take a look at the key matchups the Broncos will have to win to obtain a victory at home on Sunday.

 

Broncos’ Special Teams vs. Joshua Cribbs

To me, this is a key matchup.  Cribbs already proved why he was a Pro Bowl return man last season.  He can cause serious problems for opposing defenses by giving his offense great field position.

Cribbs is extremely versatile, fast, and deceptively powerful as a return man.  The Broncos will undoubtedly have their hands full.  Head Coach Josh McDaniels had this to say about Cleveland’s All-Pro performer:

“He is the best in the league, in my opinion. He and [Chicago WR Devin] Hester are certainly guys that, when they touch the ball—I don’t care if it is on offense or in the kicking game—you have got a chance to score if you are on their sideline. [He is a] very explosive player, hard to tackle, great vision, and awareness in the return game.”

“Sometimes, he may not go where the return is blocked to go because he sees that people are over-pursuing or squeezing too hard. We are going to have a huge challenge with him because he is so dangerous, so explosive. If you are playing in tight games and that guy is back there returning kicks, it could be one play that changes the result of the game. [He is] one of the most dangerous players we will play all year, no doubt about it.”

Broncos punter Brett Kern saw a lot of action on Sunday against the Bengals and sources have indicated that Denver was not extremely impressed with his performance.  In fact, the Broncos brought in a couple of punters, including Britton Colquitt, for a tryout this week.

Kern’s average of just around 42 yards per punt is not great. He is going to need to get a lot of hangtime on his kicks in order to keep Cribbs in check.

Unless wind is a major factor, kickoffs should not be a problem. Matt Prater is able to consistently drive the ball out of the end zone, especially in the thin air of Denver.  Punts are a different story.   

 

Broncos’ Pass Defense vs. Brady Quinn

The Broncos were able to shut down Carson Palmer, for the most part, in their win last week in Cincinnati.  Early indications are that they will have no problems with Brady Quinn and the Browns’ receivers, including Braylon Edwards, Mike Furrey, Mohamed Massaquoi, and Brian Robiskie.

If I had to guess, I would say the matchups will be as such:

Champ Bailey—Edwards

Andre’ Goodman—Furrey

Alphonso Smith—Massaquoi, Robiskie, etc.

I think the Broncos match up favorably in this area and, because of that, I expect Cleveland to come out running the ball early and often—a perfect lead-in to my next matchup.

 

Broncos’ Run Defense vs. Jamal Lewis

Jamal Lewis was shut down against the Vikings, who have one of the better run defenses in the league led by Kevin and Pat Williams.  The Broncos, obviously, do not have defensive tackles of that caliber, but they proved against the Bengals that they are far more capable against the run than they are credited for.

The Broncos’ run defense was impressive throughout the preseason, and they followed it up by holding Bengals running back Cedric Benson to 76 yards on 21 carries.  (And 20 of those yards came on one run.)  For those keeping score at home, that is 3.6 yards per carry.  If you take out Benson’s 20-yarder, Denver held him to roughly 2.5 yards per carry.

Jamal Lewis is a load for opposing defenders to take down, but it appears the Broncos have the personnel to defend against him. 

He may break a big run, maybe two, but the Broncos should be able to keep Lewis in  check for the most part throughout this game.

If they can do that, they will force Cleveland to pass, opening up the game for the rush linebackers and defensive linemen that can pin their ears back and pressure Quinn.

The gameplan for the Browns is probably similar to this one, oddly enough.  Looking at the Broncos, it seems the most effective way to win will be to shut down Denver’s running game and pressure Kyle Orton.

 

Knowshon Moreno/Correll Buckhalter vs. Browns’ Run Defense

This is going to be a huge matchup for the Broncos, and one that could neutralize the Browns’ tactics defensively.

I fully expect the Broncos to come out running the ball in the early stages of this game. Cleveland’s run defense, well, they could not stop Adrian Peterson to save their jobs on Sunday.

The Broncos have a completely healthy Knowshon Moreno, and Correll Buckhalter seems to be running inspired lately.

If the Broncos can establish the run early, the passing game will set itself up.  Orton needs pressure taken off of him, and he has proven throughout the preseason and even at times on Sunday that he can be effective with time in the pocket.

 

If the Broncos can establish the run early on, they should be able to control the game from the outset.  Denver appears to have a superior defensive unit.  If they can keep Brady Quinn under pressure, they can come away from their first home game with a victory and improve to 2-0.

Here is a position-by-position breakdown the two teams’ advantages:

Quarterback:  Browns

Running Back:  Push

Wide Receiver:  Broncos

Tight Ends:  Broncos

Offensive Line:  Broncos

Defensive Line:  Browns

Linebackers:  Broncos

Cornerbacks:  Broncos

Safeties:  Broncos

Specialists:  Browns

 

My Pick:  Broncos

 

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