Denver’s Draft Playbook

 

Scenario 1 – Getting Sanchez (25%)

 

Denver’s day begins with Sanchez and whether he goes prior to Jacksonville at 1-8. Denver is limited moving up beyond 1-8 for several reasons.

 

The 1-7 sits with Oakland and Denver will not do a major trade with an AFC-West rival and Oakland will not risk being the guys that put Sanchez in the AFC-West. Denver could make a deal with Cincy at 1-6, Cleveland at 1-5 or Seattle at 1-4–but for the same reasons as Oakland not with KC at 1-3.

 

As Denver moves beyond the 1-8, the cost of acquiring higher picks approaches the value Denver received from Chicago for Cutler. If you make Orton worth 421 points (2-48) then Denver received 2200 points for Cutler (the value of the 1-3). Beyond the 1-8, landing Sanchez at these picks turns the Cutler drama more andmore into a Cutler for Sanchez trade.

 

Walter of walterfootball.com was to my knowledge the first guy to identify the Denver move to 1-8 with Jacksonville for the purpose of selecting Sanchez. The trade is straight forward.

 

Jacksonville has budget issues and would like to exit the 1-8, which is worth 1400 points. Denver can offer the 1-12 (1200 points) and the 3-79 (195).

 

An alternative to this would be for Denver to offer the 1-12 and Orton to Jacksonville. I believe Orton is worth at least 350 (2-55, keep in mind that whatever you make Orton to be worth below 421 necessarily means Denver got that much less than the 1-3 for Cutler) and his contract is something that might work well for them.

 

Denver might get “change” in a 1-8 for 1-12 + Orton move with Jacksonville in the form of a mid-round to late pick to equalize value.

 

If Sanchez is available at 1-8, Jacksonville will be hearing from the other Sanchez suitors: DC; the Vikings; the Jets and maybe Tampa as well. I think Denver can and will place a higher value bid than the Jets, Vikes, and Bucs, so the 1-8 play will come down to Denver versus DC.

 

DC starts their bidding with the 1-13 (1150) and the 3-80 (190) – DC has no 2^nd. This is 60 points under Denver.

 

Like Denver, who would consider adding Orton to the mix, DC can throw in Campbell. Jax then can decide if they want a proven NFL starter, or just picks.

 

Jacksonville is limited on what they can hold out for because DC will be talking to Oakland too. Bottom line is that Denver has slightly better cards to play for the 1-8, but DC can always go for the 1-7 with Oakland.

 

All these scenarios presume, of course, that Detroit has taken Stafford at the 1-1 and none of the teams drafting 1-2 through 1-7 have taken Sanchez for themselves.

 

Oakland doesn’t like to down trade. At 1-7, they are thinking of going any one of three ways: drafting a WR (Maclin), drafting the 3^rd OT selected after presumably St Louis and Cincy, or taking a DE (4.40 speed freak – Johnson).

 

In my opinion, all these options for Oakland at 1-7 are reaches. Therefore, I think the all too common mock theme that Crazy Al will be stupid is stupid and Oakland will very much consider moving down out of the 1-7 with a Sanchez suitor–especially if doing so screws Denver.

 

So let’s put some probabilities on the variations in the Sanchez story:

 

A – Detroit goes OT at 1-1 and both Stafford and Sanchez are in play thereafter – 10%

 

B – One of the teams drafting 1-2 through 1-6 takes Sanchez for themselves – 25%

 

C – Someone pays for more than the 1-7 and takes Sanchez before the 1-7 – 10%

 

D – Washington (or someone else other than Denver) makes a trade with Oakland and selects Sanchez 1-7 – 20%

 

E – Washington (or someone else other than Denver) makes a trade with Jacksonville and selects Sanchez 1-8 – 10%

 

F – Denver makes a trade with Jacksonville and selects Sanchez 1-8 – 20%

 

G – Sanchez lasts beyond 1-8 – 5% (but the probability that Denver would get him at 1-12 is <1%, so I’m not going to detail this out).

 

Denver can end up with Sanchez in scenarios A, C, F and G, but the odds in scenarios A, C and G of Denver ending up with Sanchez are minimal so let’s make Denver landing Sanchez in all scenarios 25%.

 

If Denver gets Sanchez we can presume that the 1-12 has been used. So Denver will be on the board next at 1-18.

 

Let’s lay out Denver’s 1^st Round Board at 1-18 with the odds that the player will be there:

1. Raji – 3-4NT – <1%
2. T. Jackson – 3-4DE – 15% (has to first last to 1-16 and then get past SD at 1-16, which will only happen if SD goes OT)
3. Mauagula – ILB – 65%
4. Wells or Moreno – 80%
5. Any of the Round 1 OLBs – 100%
6. V. Davis or Butler  – CB – 85%
7. M. Jenkins, S. Smith – FS – 95%

1-18 is where Denver has problems if Jackson is gone and you’re not sold on Mauagula or think he’s a reach at 1-18.

 

At 1-18 we have the following odds on what Denver does:

A – Jackson – 3-4DE – 100% of 15% being there= 15%

B – Mauagula – ILB – 75% of 65% being there = 50%

C – M. Jenkins – FS – 5%

C – Anyone else – 10%

D – Move the pick – 20%

 

Let’s start with why I place such a low value on Denver drafting a CB, S, OLB, RB, DE/T at 1-18. I’ll begin with OLB.

 

I think this whole Rush or Hydrid DE/OLB fad is getting out-of-hand. Again, my Denver experiences may be showing and a 272 pound college DE stud who ran a 4.69 for your hybrid?

 

I give you Tim Crowder, who was standing up and playing OLBthis weekend at mini-camp. Want a 260 DE who led the nation in sacks for your DE/OLB hybrid…that’s a 4^thround pick in 2006 named Dummervil.

 

Jarvis Moss? Consider his 2007 numbers coming into the draft – 6’6” 250, 4.69 40.  

 

This year’s DE/OLB fad isn’t new, it was all the rage the last time the 3-4 was the defense du jour. We in Denver did OK with the college DE to pro 3-4 LB game – Simon Fletcher and Karl Mecklenberg. 

 

The bottom line is that any pro position which requires a unique set of skills and is not a position typically found in the college game is necessarily a reach. This same phenomenon goes for many DL guys who are projected to use a different technique or even a pro level technique at all rather than simply having over matched their college OL opponents physically.

 

In my opinion, Dummervil, Moss and Crowder would be completely hyped if they were in the 2009 draft as prototypical hybrid “Rush” OLBs and all three would be talked about as 1^st Rounders. I’m dead serious.

 

Denver will not draft an OLB in Round One. They’ll go RB or FS before they waste a #1 on yet another 250-270 pound sub 4.80 collegiate DE projected to be a NFL 3-4 OLB.

 

They have Dummervil, Moss and Crowder all standing up at camp, plus B Bailey and Woodyard. OLB is not a high priority.

 

Eliminating the DT/DEs from the 1-18 is pretty straight forward, the guys that will be on the board at 1-18 are not 5 technique 3-4 DEs nor 0 technique 3-4 NTs – they are all one-gap players such as Jerry and Ayers. Denver already has a bunch of these guys that they’ll be trying to convert – Powell, Thomas, Peterson – to 3-4 DEs. Getting yet another one of these projects isn’t worth a number 1.

 

McD has told us his draft philosophy – draft the best player available that fits the system and prefer players who came from winning programs.

 

There are a few teams that would consider trading up for the 1-18, let’s think these through:

 

Minnesota –

The Vikes might pay a few points to jump from 1-22 over Detroitat 1-20 and landan OT before the Lions. This has plausibility if a guy like A. Smith or Oher drops and you like either more than the next tier of OTs – Beatty and Britton or if a run on OTs has happened and only Beatty or Britton are left at 1-18.

 

It would cost Minnesota 120 points. Minnesota has the 3-86 which is worth 160 points so Denver would have to make 40 points worth of change by tossing in the 5-149 (32 points). So it’s 1-18 + 5-149 for the 1-22 + 3-86. Denver can still land Mauagula ahead of NE at 1-23.

 

Miami –

 

The Tuna has a first, two seconds, a third and a fourth. He has a playoff contending team for 2009 with a few holes to fill – namely a CB and an OLB.

 

I think the two top CBs are flawed andthe class behind them starting with Butler going on into the second is six deep. I don’t see a lot of value spread in the CB class from number 1 through 8, so I think the Tuna will try to solve OLB in the deeper class in the 1^st and CB in the 2^nd.

 

Miami has the 1-25 worth 720 points, so the up trade to 1-18 costs 180. Who is worth 180 at 1-18 that you can’t get at 1-25.

 

Could be any one of several guys; Matthews, Brown, perhaps even Maybin if he slides. The better fit for a Miami – Denver swap in the first is if Denver has the 1-12 and Raji, Jackson and Sanchez are gone.

 

The Tuna can move up and probably get Maybin. For the trade to work at 1-18, the Tuna will have to really want a CB and think that the Vikes are going CB rather than OT and that Jenkins, Butler and V. Davis are 180 points apart in value.

 

Buffalo –

 

If the Bills really want Pettigrew they will have to get in front of Atlanta’s 1-24 for sure and maybe Philly at 1-21. Denver will be talking to Buffalo about TEs, since I think Denver is shopping Scheffler and his buddy, agent Bus Cook.

 

Maybe Scheffler solves Buffalo’s TE hole at the price of giving Denver something like 200-250 points. If not, then the conversation can turn to Pettigrew at 1-18.

 

The move for Buffalo from 1-28 to 1-18 costs 240 points. Buffalo can start buy offering their 3-75 worth 215 points for either Scheffler or the 1-18 for the 1-25. There are two options here so I think this conversation is happening.

 

So in Scenario 1 (25% probability of the Sanchez trade)

1-8 – Sanchez – QB – 1-12 + 3-79 or Orton

 

1-18 – T. Jackson (15%)

1-18 – Mauagula (50%)

1-18 – Moreno (5%)

1-18 – Trade Minnesota for 1-22 (5%)

1-18 – Trade Buffalo for the 1-28 (10%)

1-18 – Trade Miami for the 1-25 (5%)

1-18 – The Field (10%)

 

At 1-22 (5%) – Mauagula (60%), Moreno (10%), S. Smith (20%), the Field (10%)

At 1-25 (5%) – Mauagula (20%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (40%), the Field (10%)

At 1-28 (10%) – Mauagula (15%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (30%), R. Johnson (10%), the Field (15%)

 

Scenario 2 – No Sanchez (75%)

 

The play for Sanchez did not materialize, most likely because Sanchez was selected at 1-7 or earlier, so Denver has its 1-12:

 

1-8 – (5%) – Make the trade with Jacksonville to select either Raji or T. Jackson

1-12 – Raji (30%)

1-12 – T. Jackson (40%)

1-12 – Trade with Miami for the 1-25 (10%) – see discussion above, Miami sends the 1-25 (720) + the 2-44 (460) for the 1-12 (1200). Miami gets Maybin?

1-12 – Down Trade with someone other than Miami (10%)

1-12 – The Field (5%)

 

1-18 – T. Jackson (15%)

1-18 – Mauagula (50%)

1-18 – Moreno (5%)

1-18 – Trade Minnesota for 1-22 (5%)

1-18 – Trade Buffalo for the 1-28 (10%)

1-18 – Trade Miami for the 1-25 (5%)

1-18 – The Field (10%)

 

At 1-22 (5%) – Mauagula (60%), Moreno (10%), S. Smith (20%), Field (10%)

At 1-25 (5%) – Mauagula (20%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (40%), Field (20%)

At 1-28 (10%) – Mauagula (15%), Moreno (10%), Butler (20%), S. Smith (30%), R. Johnson (10%), Field (15%)

 

Trading Scheffler (40%)

 

I see Denver shopping Scheffler and his nemesis agent, Bus Cook, to Detroit, Buffalo and Atlanta among others. I make Scheffler worth 200-250 points – an early to mid-3^rd.

 

2nd Round

 

The 2-48 pick begins with landing 3-4 NT R. Brace if Raji was not had in the 1^st. If Raji is obtained and Denver didn’t hit the home run with Jackson sliding to 1-18, then the 2-48 will be used for a 3-4 DE – which could be Moala or Gilbert – or a safety.

 

Safeties are deep and talented in the 2^nd and 3^rd– Delmas, Chung, Moore, R. Johnson, S. Martin, Clemons, Byrd. The buzz on many mocks is that 3-4NTs are rare in this draft, I completely disagree. There are good NT prospects throughout this draft, so if we get neither Raji or Brace, there are solutions later.

 

Trade Scenario in the 3^rd (10%)

 

Lastly, I see a plausible trade in the 3^rdwith Dallas. Dallasis a 9-7 team, with a billion dollar stadium to pay for, a coach on the bubble, and an owner who’s the de facto GM.

 

Dallas needs a few key starters to stay competitive in the NFC-East. Dallas has 11 picks but no 1^st.

 

They have the 2-59, 3-69, 4-101, 4-117, 5-156, 5-166, 5-172, 6-197, 6-208, 7-210, and 7-227. Dallas really needs to consolidate an excess of mid to late picks and move up for another pick in the top-100. Dallas needs starters to fill key needs not a bunch of lower probability projects or backups.

 

Denver sends the 3-79 (195 points) to Dallas for the 4-101 (96 points), 4-117 (60 points) and 5-156 (29 points). Dallas gets a mid-3^rd and consolidates an excess of mid and late picks.

 

Conclusions

 

With no Sanchez but with a Scheffler trade and the 3^rd round trade with Dallas, a plausible outcome for Denver would be:

 

1-12 – 3-4DE – T. Jackson – LSU

1-18 – ILB – R. Mauagula – USC

2-48 – 3-4NT – R. Brace – Boston College
3-65 – FS – R. Johnson – Alabama (From Detroit for Scheffler, 265 points)
3-84 – RB – R. Jennings – Liberty
4-101 – ILB – J Brinkley – S Carolina (from Dallas for the 3-79, 195 points, Dallas consolidates an excess of mid/late rounders)
4-114 – C – A. Shipley – Penn St.
4-117 – TE – C. Coffman – Mizzou (from Dallas for the 3-79)
5-149 – K – G. Gano – Florida St. – Let’s get the #1 kicker in this draft!
5-156 – QB – M. Reilly? – Central Washington – (from Dallas) – I leave it to McD to choose from a number of QBsavailable around this pick
6-185 – 3-4NT – V. Martin – Western Ontario
7 -225 – WR/KR – Q. Cosby – Texas
7-235 – CB – W. Osaisai – Stanford

 

That’s nearly two complete years’ worth of picks in Denver uniforms a week from now.

 

With the Sanchez play at 1-8, Scheffler traded but no Dallas trade in the 3^rd:

 

1-8 – QB – M. Sanchez – USC (from Jax for the 1-12 + 3-79)

1-18 – ILB – R. Mauagula – USC

2-48 – 3-4NT – R. Brace – Boston College
3-65 – FS – R. Johnson – Alabama (From Detroit for Scheffler, 265 points)

3-84 – 3-4NT – D. Scott – Clemson
4-114 – TE – C. Coffman – Mizzou
5-149 – K – G. Gano – Florida St.
6-185 – 3-4DE – P. Egboh – Stanford
7 -225 – WR/KR – Q. Cosby – Texas
7-235 – C – B. Helms – LSU

 

If this is what 2009 looks like, then 2010 draft will prioritize CBs, another ILB, a WR, and a RB.

 

Bottom line: Denver is about to get a whole lot more talented.

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