The Reality Check

Oh, how have the Denver Broncos utterly shocked a nation of fans and football media? 

Let us count the ways.

From the get go, whether you are or aren’t a fan of the Denver Broncos you’re reading this article. Why that’s happening probably has something to do with what the team accomplished in the first six weeks of the 2009 season.

The fact of the matter is this team is a force to be reckoned with the rest of the 2009 football season.

In effect, these aren’t your daddy’s Broncos, and they aren’t what most would expect from the Denver Broncos at this stage in time under this new regime.

Still a record of 6-0 is a great start and somewhat impressive in any NFL season for any team.

To match the six wins the Broncos attained before the bye week, here are six reasons why you can virtually bank on Denver continuing on their special run. 

This direct thought is the reasoning behind what can still be considered an early season projection that will most likely land the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game.  This team is almost destined to land the number one seed in the AFC playoffs for the Lombardi Trophy.

It’s intriguing. Every year there are teams that surprise everyone in every sport.  So stop, take a minute, and evaluate the data and the factual arguments that support the amazing run of this 2009 Denver Broncos team, one which appears to be heading deep into the post season.

 

1. The Broncos Have the League’s Best Scoring Defense

Much like a quarterback within the grasp of Elvis Dumervil, there is simply no escaping it. The Denver Broncos have the best scoring defense in the NFL.

There is a reason the old saying, “Defense wins championships” was coined.  It really has to do with a sense of Las Vegas type odds and a general philosophy.  If you are capable of shutting down your opponent in any sport, you are winning half of the battle right then and there.

In football, if that becomes a team’s advantage, it is huge. 

Defense can create opportunity where there appeared to be none.

That is exactly how the Denver Broncos’ new 3-4 defense has been working to accomplish its goals, game in and game out. 

Consider the fact that through six weeks of the season the Denver Broncos have only given up 66 points for an average of 11 points per game.

Looking at Sunday’s most recent NFL games, Jay Cutler’s new team the Chicago Bears, who are known for their defense, gave up 45 points on the road in Cincinnati against the Bengals.

Yes, the same Bengals that were said to not be very good and easily discredited after the Broncos won on the Immaculate Deflection play to start the season with a win.  Those same Bengals are currently 5-2 and tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for first place in the AFC North division.

The point is, even good defenses get scored on.  The fact that the number of points the Broncos have given up is under the century mark at this juncture is nothing short of stellar.

Look a little deeper though at the talent level that is assembled by the Broncos on defense and you quickly see it’s not entirely a group of no-name players. 

It might however be a group of veterans who have never completely been given their personal due in their own right. Sure the likes of Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are career Pro Bowlers and have reached one Super Bowl and a number of conference championship games.

The fact remains, the talent on this Broncos defensive team is greater than meets the eye.

The Broncos have something this season they did not have last season—a stable defensive backfield with depth, experience, and players. 

One of the primary criticisms of the Broncos defensive backfield last season was that they tackled poorly, showed their inexperience, failed to create turnovers, and had a lack of chemistry, especially once Champ Bailey went down with an injury at New England.   

This season’s defensive backfield has Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey, along with the best part of the Miami Dolphins defensive backfield the previous few seasons in Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill. 

Combined the starters have 42 years of NFL experience in the defensive backfield and none of them appear to have lost much. 

Philadelphia believed Brian Dawkins had lost a step and some have said he may have, however his play on the field hasn’t shown any sign of letting up or being a step behind.  Brian Dawkins’ fire is intense and reminds old Broncos fans of former linebacker and current ESPN personality Tom Jackson, who was a fiery competitor in his own right.

In the linebacking corps is Elvis Dumervil who converted to an outside linebacker from being a defensive end, and it seems to have boosted an already promising career. 

Additionally, D.J. Williams has 46 tackles, two sacks, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery at his new position on the inside of the Broncos attacking 3-4. 

Cleveland cast-off Andra Davis has 38 tackles on the inside along with one sack.

The Broncos’ front three of Kenny Peterson, Ron Fields, and rookie Ryan McBean have done an exceptional job of gap control and funneling the play to the linebacking crew. 

Additionally while the group has not logged a sack, they have played a key role in the Broncos being tied for the league lead in sacks with a total of 21 heading into the bye.

 

 

2. This Team Is Healthy and Very Well Coached

Without a doubt, for a team to win a number of games and have a chance of getting deep into the playoffs they have to stay healthy. 

For the most part the Broncos have done that up through their bye week. It seems the most important injury happened to Brian Dawkins against San Diego where it appeared he may have had a slight hamstring pull in the first half. 

Dawkins eventually returned and helped to lock it down on defense while leading the Broncos to the victory in a hotly contested football game.

If the Broncos can stay healthy expect them to play in the AFC Championship Game.

Just as important as staying healthy, the Broncos are a well coached football team.  From the schemes being run on both sides of the ball, this football team very much reminds people of the New England Patriots. 

With Josh McDaniels formerly under Bill Belichick’s tutelage it’s obvious the Broncos organization’s approach to the game is now radically different than it has been in the past.

Perhaps the greatest of all the moves Josh McDaniels made in coming to the Denver Broncos was in landing the coaching staff he now has in place.  Moreover, Josh puts the trust in his coaches to get the job done right.

From the start the focus was on changing the culture, and it is different because of the coaching. 

Josh in his own right has been hard on Kyle Orton when he has needed to be, but he has also celebrated the successes and a mutual respect has been forged because of it.  Orton’s growth is obvious, his play is probably the most noticeable of any player, and he has proven the system is working for him.

There are more however.  Where is the criticism of the defensive line and the Broncos front seven now?  The fact is there isn’t any. 

Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, defensive line coach Wayne Nunnely, linebackers coach Don Martindale, and defensive backs coach Ed Donatell have revamped the defense and forged a nucleolus of high expectations.

The depths to which the Broncos defense fell last season aren’t even viewable on the radar now.

Champ Bailey recently made some comments that said how important coaching is at the NFL level because the talent level is so close. Sometimes it’s just weird how things work out.

Right now it seems like a perfect storm in Denver much in the way one is brewing in New Orleans.

It’s not that the Broncos had poor defenders last season on the whole. There were talented guys there that remain on the roster now.  Perhaps the Broncos defense wasn’t running the right scheme for the talent base a year ago.

These Broncos have made a relatively smooth transition to an attacking 3-4 scheme.  Right now it’s showing in the stat sheet, but it also shows up on film. 

The Denver Broncos are fundamentally sound, where they aren’t second guessing the gap coverage like they were a year ago or even the pass coverages for that matter. 

 

 

3. The Broncos Are Winning the Turnover Battle

On the statistical side, the Denver Broncos are causing forced errors from the opposition, and they are taking care of the football. 

Currently the top team in the NFL is the Green Bay Packers at a plus-10 in the turnover battle. The Denver Broncos aren’t far behind at a plus-7 that basically is working out to one key turnover per game. 

Looking back at each game, those turnovers are playing a vital role in beating teams and setting the tone on defense.

The Broncos took Oakland out of the game when Brian Dawkins recovered a fumble deep in Broncos territory, ending the Raiders’ hopes of getting back in that game.

Last week in San Diego, the Broncos D-line forced a Phillip Rivers fumble that iced the game for the Broncos.

When they aren’t getting the turnovers, they are shutting teams down at key moments throughout the game and keeping them out of the end zone.

Think about the work the Broncos did in keeping the Bengals drives between the 20’s. 

Think about Tony Romo throwing at Champ Bailey all day with little success that resulted in a pick near the end zone and last second knockdowns by the Broncos cover corner. 

Then think about how poor Tom Brady looked against the Broncos defense at times and the fact that Randy Moss was a non factor in the game.

Because of the differential, the Broncos have allowed themselves the opportunity to have late game winning drives against Dallas and New England while being able to put the Chargers out of their misery.

The bottom line is these turnovers are making a difference.  If the Broncos are going to start dominating teams they should create more of these sorts of opportunities for themselves.

 

 

4. The Challenging Schedule Now Favors the Broncos

If you want to know how good these Broncos are and you are still not convinced, there are three games remaining on their schedule that will be the true barometer on how close this team can be to winning the AFC. 

Sunday the Broncos will play in Baltimore, a place where the franchise has traditionally had a number of problems against both the Colts and the Ravens. 

The Baltimore Ravens will be starving for a win as they are also coming off a bye week to face a Broncos team that wants to send a deliberate message to the rest of the NFL.

Following the game against the Ravens, the Broncos play a home game against the reigning world champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Broncos have always historically matched up well with the Steelers.

An historical average score between the two franchises gives Pittsburgh a slight edge at around a 24-22 margin.

Should the Broncos lose both those games, they have a great deal more work to do to raise the bar to a championship level.  However if they win those two games the only other obstacle in the AFC would be the Indianapolis Colts. 

Denver will visit the Colts on December 13 in a game that could determine which team has the home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs.

Outside of those games you can virtually bank on the Broncos at least splitting five of their next 10 games.  The Broncos will win at Washington, at Philadelphia, against Kansas City twice, and versus the San Diego Chargers in Denver in a tough rematch. 

 

 

5. The Broncos Have Attitude and Something to Prove

It’s been said attitude is everything. Think about it. Perhaps at some point in time you worked for a losing organization or a loser of a boss. How well did that go over? 

Sometimes you can only scratch your head as to how they got their position in the first place.  Now contrast that with working for a young upstart and putting it all on the line where success is the only acceptable answer. 

The offseason brought a slew of questions about the Broncos organization and the hiring of Josh McDaniels as the new leader, supplanting future Hall of Fame coach Mike Shanahan.  To say the least there were a lot of unanswered questions about the direction of the franchise.

There were also holdover questions from last season about the defensive talent and what it would take to put this team back into a good place. 

Things seemed to be going in the right direction when Brian Dawkins was signed; in fact fans started dreaming of the Super Bowl. 

Just moments following the press conference to introduce Dawkins, the Jay Cutler debacle started to unfold.  Now it’s looking like everything the Broncos did in handling the Jay Cutler ordeal seems to be the right moves now. 

Additionally this team is not hindered by the loss of Cutler. In some areas it was a surprisingly welcomed change of pace.    

Kyle Orton has found the perfect match for his talents, and the Broncos have found a perfect match in the locker room.  Orton has not put up the numbers that would blow away Dan Fouts’ place in history anytime soon, but he has been very consistent and has avoided interceptions. 

Certainly Kyle probably should have about six INT’s on his resume at this point, but he has been fortunate to limit that number to one, which most believe really shouldn’t count since it came on a Hail Mary at the end of the first half against the Patriots.

These Broncos see only one acceptable answer and much of that has come directly from the way Josh McDaniels has handled the approach to this football team. 

Truly this is a football team working hard at its craft.  Perhaps the igniter to the whole equation is that when guys look around their locker room they see talent and experience.  When they saw the media attention locally and nationally they saw disrespect. 

The end result here is that these Denver Broncos have a fiery attitude sparked by Brian Dawkins, but they have much to prove and they are enjoying that portion of the ride.

If you think the Broncos didn’t enjoy beating the Cowboys, Patriots, and Chargers in succession, think again.

This team has a championship swagger about them.

 

 

6. The Broncos Are Undefeated

Considering the fact that the 1972 Miami Dolphins are the only NFL franchise to go undefeated in the Super Bowl era, fans shouldn’t necessarily expect this group to go undefeated. 

The fact that the team is 6-0 at a third of the way through the 2009 season says a great deal about this team’s ability to win. They have a goal for each game to find a way to win and they are meeting their goal. 

More importantly when teams are undefeated they find ways to stay in ball games and find ways to win. That is the greater and more important test of their character.  It’s sort of like solving a puzzle on the fly, and the Denver Broncos are doing incredibly well in this area so far.

So like them or hate them, the Denver Broncos are undefeated and worthy of every team’s respect at this point.

 

The Conclusion

The real conclusion won’t be known until the postseason starts and ends.  The Broncos appear to be headed on the way to being one of the top two seeds in the AFC.  Should they win the homefield advantage, history has shown that teams with the advantage wind up in the Super Bowl more often than not.

At the end of the day this Broncos team is showing the signs of a team that will be playing for an AFC Championship and possibly a Lombardi Trophy into the late winter months.

Contact Chaz at sportsmanagement@gmail.com

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