Ten NFL Coaches On The “Hot Seat” For 2009

Published: May 5, 2009

By Derek Lofland, NFL director at Football Maniaxs

Now that the draft and free agency have passed, I think we are starting to have expectations for certain teams. There are some franchises like Detroit and St Louis where the expectation is going to be six wins and a solid rebuilding effort.

Their coaches won’t be under a lot of pressure to produce big win totals in their first year. There are other teams expecting that their free agent signings and draft picks will turn them into playoff and Super Bowl contenders.

These 10 coaches are going to be feeling an even hotter seat than the rest of the NFL head coaches when September rolls around. I believe if these 10 guys don’t show us something in 2009 they will probably be looking for coordinator jobs in 2010.

10) Josh McDaniels (Broncos)

McDaniels doesn’t need to win 10 games and secure a playoff birth to keep his job, but he has to give the impression that it was worth trading a franchise quarterback in Jay Cutler to improve the overall team, in particular the defense.

If the Broncos go 6-10, but lose close games to good teams, rank 20th in the NFL in defense, and Knowshon Moreno looks like the real deal on offense, McDaniels will be considered a success and get a second season with no questions asked. If the team goes 6-10, the defense is still a mess, and the offense can’t move the ball to save its life; there are going to be problems.

If Denver is getting blown out most weeks, four of the wins are close games over the Chiefs and Raiders, all while Cutler is playing great and leading the Bears to the playoffs, Pat Bowlen might not have the patience to stick with a guy that is only one year on the job and already sent a franchise quarterback out of town.

Shipping Cutler out of town puts pressure on McDaniels to look impressive this year. Pat Bowlen needs to see that the team is headed in the right direction in year one. Even if Denver’s record isn’t great, Denver needs to play well. McDaniels basically forfeited a year to “learn on the job” with a bad defense when he made the move to ship Cutler out of town.

9) Marvin Lewis (Bengals)

I thought he would be gone the last two years, but the Brown family hates to terminate people under contract and have to pay the remainder of their contract. Winning is not the most important thing in Cincinnati. Lewis is 46-49-1 since arriving in Cincinnati in 2003 and 0-1 in the playoffs.

Furthermore, he is just 19-28-1 the last three seasons. He was brought in for the great work he did with the Baltimore defense. The highest the Bengals have ranked in scoring defense since hiring Lewis was 17th in 2006. The highest they have ranked in yards allowed was 12th in their four-win campaign of 2008.

I just don’t think he can afford to go 4-12 or 5-11 and expect to keep his job again. He has a franchise quarterback to build around in Carson Palmer and they have been adding pieces on defense through the draft for some time. They used a first round pick on Keith Rivers last year. In 2007, they added CB Leon Hall in the first round.

In 2006, they added CB Jonathan Joseph and DE Frostee Rucker in the third round. In 2005, they added David Pollack and Odell Thurman in the first two rounds. This year they gave him a potential franchise offensive tackle in Andre Smith. They also added MLB Rey Maualuga and DE Michael Johnson in the second and third rounds.

Cincinnati is not an ideal situation and everyone knows that. I don’t think Marvin Lewis has to win 12 games and the division to save his job. The standards in Cincinnati are not very high, but there are still standards and Lewis needs to get back up to .500 with his young players playing well and make the playoffs looking like they are a year around the corner.

His defense, that is loaded with top picks, has to start playing like a top defense. If he has another losing record in 2009, I think the Bengals will make a change that quite frankly is probably a year or two overdue.

8) Mike McCarthy (Packers)

McCarthy is 27-21 since coaching the team, but almost half of those wins (13) came in the 2007 season. He is coming off a 6-10 campaign despite having an offense that finished fifth in the NFL in points scored.

The problem for him since arriving there has been the defense. The 2005 defense allowed the 19th most points in the NFL. In 2006, which was McCarthy’s first season, they regressed to 25th. Then they broke out and finished sixth in 2007. But that lasted only one year and they were back down to 22nd in 2008.

Except for Winston Moss, the entire defensive staff was let go and the team is implementing a 3-4 defense this year. Usually if a coach doesn’t turn it around after major changes are made to the staff he is shown the door.

They spent two first round picks upgrading the front seven, which finished 27th in rushing yards allowed last year. The expectation is that this defense will be improved with those two picks, a new staff, and a new scheme.

I don’t think McCarthy needs to make the playoffs to save his job. His 13-3 record from 2007 and NFC Championship appearance give him a “get out of jail card free” for last year.

Aaron Rodgers has a bright future and McCarthy is receiving the credit for his development. There have been a lot of positives with McCarthy there and most people feel he is a rising star in the coaching profession.

But if this team goes 6-10 again and the defense looks lost, Ted Thompson is probably not going to survive a fourth non-winning season in five tries. If Thompson goes, the Packers GM probably isn’t going to feel obligated to keep McCarthy for one 13-3 season, three non-winning seasons, and two consecutive seasons under .500. A new GM is probably going to want his own guy.

McCarthy needs to do well so that Ted Thompson can keep his job, which will ensure that McCarthy sticks around. They probably need to go 8-8 to 10-6 and be the second place team in the NFC North this season for that to happen, with a defense that is improving and looks prime to break out in 2010.

McCarthy needs to have a solid season in 2009. His defense cannot play like it did in 2006 and 2008.

7) Gary Kubiak (Texans)

Kubiak has been in Houston for three years. He has a 22-26 record and has never done better than 8-8, which happens to be the best record in Texans history. The offense is slowly getting better, but the defense hasn’t taken the jump yet.

The best they have ranked on defense in either yards allowed or points allowed in his first three seasons is 22nd. That is despite drafting players like DE Mario Williams, DTs DeMeco Ryans, and Amobi Okoye.

This year they added OLB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin in the first two rounds of the draft and signed DE Antonio Smith in free agency.

With an offense led by Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton that was third in yards gained, the expectation is that the Texans will be able to compete in a division where Tony Dungy is no longer a coach, Albert Haynesworth is no longer a Titan, and Jacksonville is coming off a 5-11 season. The young defense eventually has to stop being young and get better.

I think the Texans need to make the playoffs this year if Kubiak is going to be with the Texans in 2010. At the very least, the defense needs to get up into the top-15 in the NFL and the team needs to win nine or 10 games and be in contention for the playoffs the last week of the season.

At a minimum, they need to be like the 2007 Cleveland Browns. They can’t start slow like they have in past seasons. If the Texans go 8-8 again and are mediocre a third time in a row, they may feel the need to cut ties with Kubiak and bring in a guy to get the team over the top and into the playoffs.

6) Jim Zorn (Redskins)

He was first hired as the offensive coordinator and then promoted to head coach after they couldn’t find anyone they liked better. It wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. He also took over for a team that went 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wildcard in 2007. While they only lost one more game, they started the season 6-2 before finishing 8-8 in last place.

Dan Snyder always likes to make a splash in free agency and this year was no different. They signed DT Albert Haynesworth and CB DeAngelo Hall. The Redskins also drafted DE Brian Orakpo. People are expecting this defense to dominate the NFL and a bad record will not be tolerated.

The other problem Zorn has is that for as much as Snyder likes to sign free agents, he loves to sign big name coaches even more. Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher, and Jon Gruden are all free agent head coaches. With the exception of Cowher, the other three are considered offensive gurus.

If the Skins finish in last place with a solid defense but a mediocre offense, don’t be surprised if he cuts ties with Zorn to go after one of the big offensive names. Zorn pretty much needs to go 10-6 and get a wild card birth to save his job in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.

5) Jack Del Rio (Jaguars)

He flat out needs to make the playoffs this season. He has been in Jacksonville since 2003 and struggles to string successful seasons together. After going 12-4 in 2005, they slipped to 8-8 in 2006.

They rebounded to go 11-5 in 2007 and won a playoff game in Pittsburgh. That led to a 5-11 2008 season instead of a breakout year. Many people thought they would be a dark horse contender for the Super Bowl in 2008.

They always seem to be great at running the ball and have a solid defense, but are a quality quarterback and receiver away from competing with the top AFC teams. Last year the defense fell apart as well and the offensive line didn’t run block or pass block very well, mainly because of injures and lack of depth. That disaster cannot happen again.

I do not believe that Kubiak and Del Rio will both survive the season. I think one of those teams will have a losing record in 2009 and the coach that does will be shown the door.

Del Rio has an improved offensive line, but many questions at quarterback. Even though Torry Holt is now there, this isn’t the same dominant Torry Holt from 2000-2006. I think Del Rio needs at least a wildcard birth and possibly a playoff win to save his job. He has been there too long for them to do poorly again and survive.

4) Sean Payton (Saints)

It’s great that Drew Brees puts up great numbers and the offense scares people to death. Problem is offenses love playing against the Saints. After going 10-6 in 2006 and advancing to the NFC Championship game in Payton’s first year, the Saints are 15-17 the last two years and have finished in the 20s in both points allowed and yards allowed in 2007 and 2008.

Expectations were that they might be a Super Bowl contender in 2007 and a NFC South division contender in 2008. This year, they drafted CB Malcolm Jenkins and signed Darren Sharper to improve a pass defense that has been lost the last two years.

A 7-9 or 8-8 record and last place in the NFC South isn’t going to cut it. Missing the playoffs isn’t going to cut it. Six losses on the road like they had in 2008 isn’t going to cut it.

This team needs to fulfill its potential and win the NFC South or compete for a wildcard. Payton needs to get back to the playoffs. If they aren’t in the playoff mix in 2009 and the defense is still struggling, Sean Payton is probably going to pay with his job no matter how well Drew Brees looks.

3) Brad Childress (Vikings)

I don’t necessarily know if it’s fair that he is on the hot seat. Even though he is only 24-24 in three seasons, the team has gotten better every year. They went from 6-10 his first year to 8-8 his second year, and 10-6 with the NFC North crown in his third year.

The problem is that he came in as an offensive guru that was supposed to fix the offense, particularly the quarterback situation. He hinged his rebuilding on Tarvaris Jackson becoming a viable NFL quarterback. That hasn’t worked out to date. The Vikings are still a quarterback away from competing for the Super Bowl. That’s a problem when you are saying that for the third straight offseason.

If Jackson has a good year this year and the Vikings win 11 or 12 games, Childress is going to keep his job. But if Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers dominate the NFC North and the Vikings regress to 8-8 or worse and miss the playoffs, he is going to be out of a job.

The expectation with Adrian Peterson, a great offensive line, and that top flight front-seven defense is that they should be playing for championships, not Wild Card appearances and first round exits. If they don’t do that, Childress hasn’t been impressive enough to escape blame. He is going to be the one that pays the price for the Vikings still not having a quarterback that can carry the team to the next level.

2) Wade Phillips (Cowboys)

I debated about whether to go with Any Reid as the other NFC East coach on the hot seat, but I think Phillips has more pressure. The Eagles at least made the NFC Championship Game in 2008.

Unless the Eagles bottomed out to 6-10, which I can’t see happening with the additions they made this offseason, Reid can probably survive an 8-8 or 9-7 season if the team suffers a lot of injuries, in particular to Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Wade Phillips can’t miss the playoffs for a second straight year for any reason.

Jerry Jones was not happy with how the team did last season and really didn’t make a major splash in free agency. They allowed troublemakers like Terrell Owens and PacMan Jones to go elsewhere. They released S Roy Williams. They also didn’t select a player in the draft until the third round. Most of their signings were mid-tier veteran players with good character that didn’t create a ton of buzz.

The Cowboys are depending on better chemistry equaling more wins. They believe that Phillips and the talent weren’t the problem, but rather a few bad seeds (insert Owens and PacMan Jones) in the locker room caused the meltdown. Those guys are gone now and can no longer be blamed.

They haven’t won a playoff game since 1996 and Wade Phillips has a reputation of being a playoff choke artist. I believe that if Wade Phillips doesn’t make the playoffs and at least win one playoff game, Jerry Jones isn’t going to be as patient with is underachieving head coach in 2010. Jones will instead show Wade Phillips the door and look to bring in a big name coach to get the team over the hump.

1) Norv Turner (Chargers)

“Marty Ball” was fine for September through December, but it didn’t win in January. That is why Norv Turner was brought to San Diego. In 2006, the Chargers were first in points scored, fourth in yards gained, seventh in points allowed, and 10th in yards allowed.

They were 14-2 and lost those two games by a combined six points, but they lost in their first playoff game to New England and Marty was shown the door for Norv Turner.

The Chargers have been considered the most talented team in the NFL for the last few seasons. Since they brought in Norv Turner, they just haven’t been able to start the season fast in a pretty weak division the last two years. They went 5-5 to start 2007 before winning their final six regular season games to eventually lose to the Patriots in the AFC title game.

That was supposed to propel them to a 2008 Super Bowl run. In 2008, they started 4-8 before winning their final four games and catching the collapsing Denver Broncos. However, they beat the Colts in the first round of the playoffs and played respectable in a loss to eventual champion Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.

A 3-2 playoff record has helped Turner keep his job again. Had they missed the playoffs, I think he would have been gone.

The division is in turmoil; Denver traded Cutler, Oakland and Kansas City are rebuilding, and Tom Cable is the second-most seasoned coach in the division, after Turner, with 12 games under his belt from 2008. The Chargers should win this division by four games, easily. They need to go 12-4 and earn a first round bye. They need to compete for a Super Bowl.

If the Chargers start the season 5-5 and make the playoffs again with a late season surge, I don’t think it is enough for Turner to just make the playoffs and win a playoff game. He needs to show the Chargers front office that the Chargers can play well for the entire season under his direction.

They didn’t bring him there to make the playoffs and win a game or two there. They brought him to get the most talented team in the NFL over the hump and win a Super Bowl. If the Chargers don’t play like a Super Bowl team most of the season, Turner is going to probably pay with his job.

Those are my 10 coaches with the most to prove in 2009. While every coach is coaching for his job, as we found out last year when so many high profile veteran coaches were given their pink slips, I think these ten have the most to prove entering the 2009 season. If they have disappointing seasons, I don’t see them surviving the season.

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Ten NFL Coaches On The “Hot Seat” For 2009

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